Trip chaining as a barrier to the propensity to use public transport

Trip chaining is a growing phenomenon in travel and activity behaviour. Individuals increasingly seek out opportunities to minimise the amount of travel required as part of activity fulfilment, given the competing demands on time budgets and their valuation of travel time savings. This search for ways of fulfilling (more) activities with less travel input has produced a number of responses, one of which is trip chaining. A particularly important policy implication of trip chaining is the potential barrier it creates in attracting car users to switch to public transport. This paper seeks to improve our understanding of trip chaining as a barrier to public transport use. A series of discrete choice models are estimated to identify the role that socio-economic and demographic characteristics of households have on the propensity to undertake trip chains of varying degrees of simplicity/complexity that involve use of the car or public transport with an embedded commuting or non-commuting primary purpose. Multinomial logit, nested logit and random parameter logit models are developed and contrasted to establish the gains in relaxing the strict conditions of the multinomial logit model.     

Effective environmental marketing of green cars: A nested-logit approach

Using market data, we assess the effectiveness of an eco-marketing campaign on purchases of ‘green’ vehicles. The eco-marketing was designed as a quasi-experiment, having one region exposed to the marketing while the other region was the control. A two-level nested-logit model consistent with utility maximization reveals the campaign had short-term positive effects on green-car sales. Results also indicate green-car buyers come from highly educated communities. Age has a positive but non-linear effect on green car sales.     

Investigating the joint choice behavior of intercity transport mode and high‐speed rail cabin with a strategy map

This paper investigates the joint choice behavior of intercity transport modes and high‐speed rail cabin class within a two‐dimensional choice structure. Although numerous studies have been conducted on the mode choice behavior, little is known about the influence of cabin class on their intercity traveling choice. Hence, this study is conducted with a revealed preference survey to investigate the intercity traveling behavior for the western corridor of Taiwan. The results of nested logit model reveal that a cabin strategy has a more significant influence on cabin choice than on mode choice. Furthermore, this study proposes a new strategy map concept to assist transport operators in defining and implementing their pricing strategies. The results suggest that to capture a higher market share, high‐speed rail operators should choose an active price reduction strategy, while bus and rail operators are advised to implement a passive price increase strategy to raise unit revenue. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

High‐speed rail cost recovery time based on an integer optimization model

With increasing gasoline prices, electric high‐speed rail (HSR) systems represent one means to mitigate overexposure to volatile prices. However, additional research is needed related to funding this infrastructure. In this paper, we develop a new integer optimization model to address this problem and use a hypothetical case study to demonstrate the approach. The objective of the approach is to minimize the time period in which the cost of HSR construction and operation can be recovered. This is an iterative process based on an integer optimization model, whose objective function is to determine the optimum recovery time (ORT), by setting the HSR ticket price and frequency. Embedded in the optimization model is a multinomial logit model for calculating the demand for HSR as a function of these decision variables, thus capturing the effects of level of service on market share. In particular, the optimization model accounts for the role of different types of subsidies toward HSR construction (one‐time subsidies at construction, annual subsidies, and subsidies depending on frequency). This method can also help determine whether an HSR system should be built or how much subsidy should be provided given a fixed expected cost recovery time. By integrating the logit model into the objective function evaluation, the effects of ticket price and service frequency on service demand can be directly captured. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Nature of influence of out‐of‐vehicle time‐related attributes on transit attractiveness: a random parameters logit model analysis

This paper describes the nature of the impacts of walking distances and waiting time on transit use. The relative trade‐offs of walking and transfer components with other transit service attributes are also discussed. A total of 449 completed stated‐preference interviews were collected; with six observations from each respondent, the total number of observations was 2694. This data set was used to estimate the coefficients in different utility functions using a random parameters logit model. The results demonstrated that walking distances to and from transit stops have important and significant nonlinear negative influences on the attractiveness of transit. Transfer waiting time was also shown to have a significant nonlinear negative impact on transit attractiveness. The random parameters logit model had a better model fit than the standard logit model. Some of the findings obtained here are novel, while others are consistent with previous works. These findings have implications for both theory and practice. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Toll product preferences and implications for alternative payment options and going cashless

There has been a great deal of research on deriving estimates of the value of travel time savings (VTTS) as a way of converting travel time benefits of toll roads relative to free routes into monetary units, the major user benefit in the development of forecasts of traffic and hence revenue streams. By contrast there has been almost no consideration given to identifying the role that various tollroad products play in establishing preferences for toll routes over non-tolled routes. Increasingly tollroads give users the option to pay by cash at a toll booth, by electronic tolling or by a pre- or post-paid debit and credit account system involving vehicle identification. The efficiency gained by electronic tolling for both the users and the operator have resulted in moves in many jurisdictions to eliminate cash collection entirely (or not introduce it when introducing a new tolled road facility), and to introduce a range of pre- and post-payment options. This has been accompanied by a growing move to distance-based charging in some contexts which is more cumbersome to structure with a cash option. This paper investigates current and potential travellers’ preferences for a range of toll products and how much individual’s are willing to pay for very specific toll products. Data from a stated choice experiment is used in a mixed logit model to establish the role that toll products play in the context of offered times and costs of alternative routes, in choosing between alternative ways of paying for the use of tolled routes.

Active school travel: homogeneity or heterogeneity? That is the question

ABSTRACT

To explain and predict active school travel (AST), most studies have not investigated to what extent considering taste heterogeneity is an important influence on AST share. The main aim of the present study was to evaluate whether considering unobserved taste heterogeneity through mixed logit models – including random coefficient and random coefficient analysis (RCA) – materially improves/influences the AST prediction compared to a simpler model – the multinomial logit (MNL) model. The database comprises 735 valid observations. The results show that, with a 10% increase in perceived walking time to school, the MNL model predicts that the AST share would decrease by 7.8% (from 18.9% to 17.4%) while the RCA model predicts that it would decrease by 8.5% (from 18.9% to 17.3%). Thus, the expected share of AST is overestimated by MNL by one-tenth of a percentage point. Although there might be random taste variations around perceived distance to school, it seems the other important policy-sensitive variables, such as safety perception, homogeneously impacts on the AST share across households with different socioeconomic and built environment characteristics. Our empirical assessment suggests that considering taste heterogeneity does not necessarily improve the accuracy of analysis for the aggregate share of the AST concerning policy-sensitive variables.     

Measuring the equity effects of a carbon charge on car commuters: A case study of Manchester Airport

This papers attempts to quantify the equity effect of a hypothesized economic instrument, a carbon charge on car commuters, for reducing carbon dioxide emissions produced by commuters on airport surface access. Manchester Airport is taken as a case study using staff Survey data from 2008 and 2010. Consumer welfare change is analysed for measuring the equity effects of carbon charge by user group, which considers the changes of travel mode choice, the carbon dioxide emissions reduction, the revenue from a carbon charge and how it is distributed. First, the individual carbon footprint in terms of gram passenger kilometre, and the damage cost of carbon by commuters on airport surface access are estimated. Next, the impact of carbon charge on travel behaviour is investigated by the nested logit model. Finally, the net effect of carbon charges is assessed by travel mode user, gender, job type, and age group. The results show some impacts of the carbon charge on car users and carbon reduction, and the positive effects on lower income group and less carbon commuters. The quantified results provide the evidences for the mitigation policies to combine monetary incentives with disincentives for travel behaviour change, and demonstrate the different equity effects among commuter groups.     

Charge timing choice behavior of battery electric vehicle users

This paper aims to examine choice behavior in respect of the time at which battery electric vehicle users charge their vehicles. The focus is on normal charging after the last trip of the day, and the alternatives presented are no charging, charging immediately after arrival, nighttime charging, and charging at other times. A mixed logit model with unobserved heterogeneity is applied to panel data extracted from a two-year field trial on battery electric vehicle usage in Japan. Estimation results, obtained using separate models for commercial and private vehicles, suggest that state of charge, interval in days before the next travel day, and vehicle-kilometers to be traveled on the next travel day are the main predictors for whether a user charges the vehicle or not, that the experience of fast charging negatively affects normal charging, and that users tend to charge during the nighttime in the latter half of the trial. On the other hand, the probability of normal charging after the last trip of a working day is increased for commercial vehicles, while is decreased for private vehicles. Commercial vehicles tend not to be charged when they arrival during the nighttime, while private vehicles tend to be charged immediately. Further, the correlations of nighttime charging with charging immediately and charging at other times reveal that it may be possible to encourage charging during off-peak hours to lessen the load on the electricity grid. This finding is supported by the high variance for the alternative of nighttime charging.     

Free public transport: A socio-cognitive analysis

In this study, the modal shift potential of introducing a free alternative (free public transportation) and of changing the relative prices of transportation is examined. The influence of a cognitive analysis on the zero-price effect is also analyzed. The data used for the analysis stem from a stated preference survey with a sample of approximately 670 respondents that was conducted in Flanders, Belgium. The data are analyzed using a mixed logit model. The modeling results yield findings that confirm the existence of a zero-price effect in transport, which is in line with the literature. This zero-price effect is increased by the forced cognitive analysis for shopping trips, although not for work/school or recreational trips. The results also demonstrate the importance of the current mode choice in hypothetical mode choices and the importance of car availability. The influence of changing relative prices on the modal shift is found to be insignificant. This might be partially because the price differences were too small to matter. Hence, an increase in public transport use can be facilitated by the introduction of free public transport, particularly when individuals evaluate the different alternatives in a more cognitive manner. These findings should be useful to policy makers evaluating free public transport and considering how best to target and promote relevant policy.