Assessing the impact of reduced visibility on traffic crash risk using microscopic data and surrogate safety measures

Due to the difficulty of obtaining accurate real-time visibility and vehicle based traffic data at the same time, there are only few research studies that addressed the impact of reduced visibility on traffic crash risk. This research was conducted based on a new visibility detection system by mounting visibility sensor arrays combined with adaptive learning modules to provide more accurate visibility detections. The vehicle-based detector, Wavetronix SmartSensor HD, was installed at the same place to collect traffic data. Reduced visibility due to fog were selected and analyzed by comparing them with clear cases to identify the differences based on several surrogate measures of safety under different visibility classes. Moreover, vehicles were divided into different types and the vehicles in different lanes were compared in order to identify whether the impact of reduced visibility due to fog on traffic crash risk varies depending on vehicle types and lanes. Log-Inverse Gaussian regression modeling was then applied to explore the relationship between time to collision and visibility together with other traffic parameters. Based on the accurate visibility and traffic data collected by the new visibility and traffic detection system, it was concluded that reduced visibility would significantly increase the traffic crash risk especially rear-end crashes and the impact on crash risk was different for different vehicle types and for different lanes. The results would be helpful to understand the change in traffic crash risk and crash contributing factors under fog conditions. We suggest implementing the algorithms in real-time and augmenting it with ITS measures such as VSL and DMS to reduce crash risk.     

级配碎石回弹变形特性

级配碎石具有非线性的应力-应变特性,回弹模量是有效描述这一特性的参数,通过室内动三轴试验能够得到较好的模拟级配碎石回弹模量的模型。分析了影响级配碎石回弹变形特性的各种因素,并进行了试验验证。通过数据拟合发现,Uzan模型能更好地反映级配碎石的非线性回弹变形特性,且模型中的回归参数与级配中小于0.075mm筛孔的质量分数有一定的关联性。并针对影响级配碎石回弹模量的两个重要参数：级配中小于0.075mm筛孔的质量分数和含水质量分数,提出相应的取值范围建议。     

汽车操纵稳定性主客观评价数据的一种处理方法

汽车操纵稳定性主客观评价之间的相关性分析是汽车技术的重要课题。提出了汽车操纵稳定性主客观评价数据的一种处理方法．通过回归分析筛选客观参数，运用BP神经网络建立相关性模型，验证结果说明了该方法的可行性。     

两车道公路黄土隧道变形规律

依托国道主干线GZ35青岛至银川高速公路陕西境内吴堡至子洲沿线上7座单洞两车道分离式黄土隧道, 现场测试了隧道施工变形, 并对测试结果进行了回归分析。分析结果表明: 台阶法施工过程中黄土隧道拱部沉降远大于净空收敛; 黄土隧道变形大致经历了急剧变形阶段(开挖初期)、持续增长阶段与缓慢增长阶段; 黄土隧道的变形规律符合对数函数规律, 由于对数函数具有发散性, 故无法由此预估围岩的最终位移, 围岩变形将长期处于缓慢增长状态; 按照规范规定的最终速率值预估二次衬砌施作时机不符合工程实际要求, 不能保证隧道围岩和支护结构的稳定和施工安全, 因此, 在黄土隧道的施工中, 需要以控制拱部的沉降来控制隧道的变形。施工中必须秉承“快挖、快支、快封闭”的原则, 采取加强初期支护, 增设锁脚锚杆, 仰拱和二次衬砌边墙基础紧跟, 二次衬砌适时施作的措施, 避免拱部围岩发生过大的沉降, 确保隧道结构稳定。     

The relationship between urban street networks and private motorized trips at the city level

There are factors that impact car usage in urban areas, such as density, diversity and design, but there have been few studies that examine the relationship between street network factors and car usage at the city level (macro level). This paper focuses on this relationship by introducing urban street network variables, such as blocks per area, nodes per block and length of roads and motorways, as independent variables and the percentage of daily trips by private motorized modes as the dependent variable. The street network in this study includes interconnecting lines and points that present streets, roads, motorways, intersections and blocks. The strength of the relationship in this study is found using multiple linear regression. The findings of this research indicate that an increase in car usage is correlated with an increasing number of blocks per area, number of nodes per block and length of motorways. In addition, because the urban street network is the result of macro-scale planning decisions, considering this relationship can lead to better planning decisions.     

基于模糊线性回归分析的编组站运营指标预测方法

运用模糊线性回归分析方法,建立编组站运营指标的模糊预测模型。利用该模型,对向塘西编组站中时进行了预测。在对中时影响因素分析的基础上,选取办理车数、有调中转车数、无调中转车数、折角车流量、货物列车到发列数和到发均衡程度等6个影响因素,结合车站近几年相关历史数据,确定了中时与6个影响因素之间的模糊函数关系。依据此函数关系对未来时期的中时进行了预测,预测结果表明所提出的运营指标预测方法有较好的适用性。     

青岛港港口吞吐量与青岛市GDP关系的计量经济分析

运用线性回归、辅助函数等计量经济学方法,通过使用Eviews软件对青岛港港口吞吐量与该市GDP之间的定量关系进行了回归分析,并进一步分析了港口吞吐量与GDP之间的关系。     

钻孔法测试残余应力基础理论研究

论述了传统钻孔法测试残余应力中存在的不完善之处。并对中心有一圆孔(包括穿孔与盲孔)的钢板,在各种载荷工况下,根据实际应力场与直角应变花测试的实际情况,用弹塑性FEM算得各种工况下的结点应变值,用结点数值的变化来模拟直角应变花测得数据,并计算出大量的已知应力场的直角应变花的三个释放应变。通过逐步回归的数学处理方法,建立了钻孔测试法中,残余应力与测试应变之间的关系式。     

组合预测模型在上海内河港口吞吐量预测中的应用

建立时间序列和二元线性回归的组合预测模型,对上海内河港口2010年、2015年和2020年的货物吞吐量水平进行了预测。研究发现,组合预测模型相比单个预测方法具有较高的精度,能够较准确地预测上海内河港口货物吞吐量。     

改进的K近邻非参数回归在短时交通流量预测中的应用

针对现有K近邻非参数回归方法的局限,为了进一步提高算法的精度和速度,做出了两方面的改进:利用相关性理论选择状态向量和采用基于聚类分析的变K近邻搜索算法.用仿真实验验证了该方法的有效性,给出了仿真试验结果.实例研究结果表明,预测效果优于传统的非参数回归方法.