Selection bias in build-operate-transfer transportation project appraisals

Recent empirical studies have found widespread inaccuracies in traffic forecasts despite the fact that travel demand forecasting models have been significantly improved over the past few decades. We suspect that an intrinsic selection bias may exist in the competitive project appraisal process, in addition to the many other factors that contribute to inaccurate traffic forecasts. In this paper, we examine the potential for selection bias in the governmental process of Build-Operate-Transfer (BOT) transportation project appraisals. Although the simultaneous consideration of multiple criteria is typically used in practice, traffic flow estimate is usually a key criterion in these appraisals. For the purposes of this paper, we focus on the selection bias associated with the highest flow estimate criterion. We develop two approaches to quantify the level and chance of inaccuracy caused by selection bias: the expected value approach and the probability approach. The expected value approach addresses the question “to what extent is inaccuracy caused by selection bias?”. The probability approach addresses the question “what is the chance of inaccuracy due to selection bias?”. The results of this analysis confirm the existence of selection bias when a government uses the highest traffic forecast estimate as the priority criterion for BOT project selection. In addition, we offer some insights into the relationship between the extent/chance of inaccuracy and other related factors. We do not argue that selection bias is the only reason for inaccurate traffic forecasts in BOT projects; however, it does appear that it could be an intrinsic factor worthy of further attention and investigation.     

洞口浅埋偏压隧道塌方处理施工技术

通过对渝湘高速公路平阳隧道出口端洞口浅埋偏压段塌方原因的分析,确定了合理的隧道塌方处理施工技术方案,采用封闭裂缝、适当清方、注浆加固稳定滑塌体、加长明洞回填反压、施工斜井加快稳定段隧道施工的综合治理措施,成功解决了隧道在浅埋、偏压地质条件下的塌方穿越问题。     

构造节理偏压对隧道结构安全性影响研究

密集的构造节理,容易在施工中引起掉块、片帮、剥落、坍塌等工程灾害,且容易使隧道初期支护结构处于偏压状态,对支护结构安全性十分不利。从隧道力学的基本理论出发,依据实测围岩压力值,建立荷载一结构模型,对隧道初支内力进行分析,计算其安全系数,评价粉质黏土段施工采用的初支结构的安全性。计算结果表明：构造节理偏压对隧道支护结构受力较为不利,围岩压力呈不对称分布时,初期支护抗拉安全性较差,需根据实际偏压情况适当加强初期支护参数。     

Bias current influence on the characteristic of the magnetic-controlled switcher type fault current limiter

A novel magnetic-controlled switcher type fault current limiter (FCL) for high voltage electric network is presented. The current limiting principle of the FCL and the bias current influence on the characteristic of the FCL are discussed. The experiments on the 220 V/50 A test model show that the FCL can limit the fault current swiftly and effectively. Under the normal state, the bias current adjustment can change the FCL voltage loss; under the fault state, the steady fault current can be easily adjusted to the preset level by bias current regulating. The experimental result is in accordance with the principle analysis and the FCL has the advantages of flexible control strategy and simple and reliable structure. Foundation item: the National Basic Research Program (973) of China (No. 2005CB221505) and the Research Fund for Doctoral Program of High Education of China (No. 20050248058)     

近距离深基坑偏压状态下的开挖技术

结合工程实例,介绍了A、B两个近距离相邻深基坑的开挖技术。在A基坑已开挖后,B基坑两侧受坑外水土压力不平衡的状态下,通过采取更换支撑形式、加固夹缝土体等技术措施,结合信息化监测手段,实现基坑的安全开挖及周边环境、管线的安全,为类似工程提供了借鉴。     

非偏压与偏压条件下浅埋隧道围岩压力的极限分析

考虑非偏压和偏压2种情况,根据泰沙基法采用的破坏模式、《公路隧道设计规范》采用的破坏模式以及实际的工程经验,针对浅埋隧道构建了一种更接近于实际情况、更加合理的、新的破坏模式;采用极限分析上限法推导出这种新破坏模式下浅埋隧道围岩压力的理论公式,并把理论公式转化成一个求围岩压力最大值问题的计算模型;结合算例,利用Matlab软件,采用序列二次规划算法对计算模型进行优化求解,并把优化解与已有的研究成果及基于极限平衡法计算得到的结果进行对比分析.研究结果表明:针对浅埋隧道,基于这种新的破坏模式采用极限分析上限法所得到的结果与已有的研究成果及基于极限平衡法计算得到的结果基本一致.不仅说明了运用极限分析上限法来研究浅埋隧道围岩压力的可行性,也验证了浅埋非偏压隧道和浅埋偏压隧道新破坏模式的合理性.     

泡桐坪隧道进出口浅埋段偏压条件下施工

浅谈泡桐坪隧道进出口堆积体及严重风化岩段在洞口浅埋、偏压条件下的隧道施工技术,重点对该段的地表加固、小导管施工、堆积体及强风化岩段的开挖与支护等技术作了详细阐述。     

完善概念模型,探究工程项目成本管理理念

工程项目成本控制是企业生存和发展的血脉系统,是企业通过高质量的生产管理水平提升市场竞争力的根基依赖。本文从项目成本控制的概念模型出发,探究了从工程预算到偏差控制的项目成本控制理念,并且从寻求能够实现工程项目成本控制的实效途径出发,提出了采用阶段性成本控制工作转化来优化成本控制主线的建议。     

山岭隧道浅埋偏压段综合治理技术浅谈

贵广铁路贺街隧道进口位于浅埋偏压地段,前期施工过程中各种地质灾害屡有发生,并且多次发生大型滑塌、初支侵限、结构大变形现象,对施工进度、安全、质量均产生不同程度影响,为山岭隧道浅埋偏压施工困难之典型。本文系统介绍了如何采取措施确保结构稳定性和综合治理措施以及受力转换合理性,实践证明隧道安全施工得以保证。     

Error and optimism bias in toll road traffic forecasts

Traffic forecasts are employed in the toll road sector, inter alia, by private sector investors to gauge the bankability of candidate investment projects. Although much is written in the literature about the theory and practice of traffic forecasting, surprisingly little attention has been paid to the predictive accuracy of traffic forecasting models. This paper addresses that shortcoming by reporting the results from the largest study of toll road forecasting performance ever conducted. The author had access to commercial-in-confidence documentation released to project financiers and, over a 4-year period, compiled a database of predicted and actual traffic usage for over 100 international, privately financed toll road projects. The findings suggest that toll road traffic forecasts are characterised by large errors and considerable optimism bias. As a result, financial engineers need to ensure that transaction structuring remains flexible and retains liquidity such that material departures from traffic expectations can be accommodated.