Understanding the role of the forecast-maker in overestimation forecasts of policy impacts: The case of Travel Demand Management policies

Forecasting the impacts of a proposed policy is an important component of the transportation planning and decision making process. Although scientific tools are often used in transportation forecasts, biases and, more specifically, overestimations of the expected impact are often observed. This study explores the correlations between forecast-maker’s characteristics and forecast bias creation and reduction. The study examines two transport-related policies aiming at the reduction of car use: telecommuting and carsharing. Both are Travel Demand Management (TDM) policies, which attract much attention from transport experts. We tested the extent to which the forecast-maker’s beliefs about the policy at stake affected the forecast bias. We found that attitudes and beliefs associates not only with overestimation bias but also with its reduction over time. We also tested the extent to which the forecast-maker’s affiliation, the performing institute and the publication type were correlated with the biases of the forecast and with the forecaster attitudes and beliefs. These characteristics are intuitively used by the forecast user as tools to assess the ‘objectivity’ of the forecast, but our analysis found no association between these characteristics and the forecast bias.     

浅埋偏压隧道洞口段加固方案计算分析

采用虚拟内力计算方法,以FLAC2D为计算工具,对洞冲里隧道的浅埋偏压段拟采用的加固方法进行了计算分析。结果表明：采用侧向管棚治理洞口段偏压无论整体沉降、结构受力均优于正面管棚的加固方法。在随后的监控量测的数据分析中也证明了该加固方案的有效性。     

郝家里浅埋偏压隧道进洞施工方法探讨

结合郝家里隧道浅埋偏压进洞施工经验,总结了特殊地形条件下浅埋偏压隧道进洞施工方法,采用洞顶地表注浆加固及沟壁围岩导管注浆加固、局部施作反压墙、减小进洞施工断面、优化爆破设计的综合方案,施工效果良好,可给予类似工程一定借鉴。     

云台山公路隧道浅埋偏压段施工技术

针对云台山隧道洞口段浅埋偏压破碎围岩的实际情况,为提高围岩强度,保证其稳定性,改善隧道成拱的作用,提出了采用偏压挡土墙、地表小导管预注浆等技术处理措施。综合分析表明:注浆处理后,围岩完整程度和强度明显提高,采用偏压挡土墙后,保证了洞顶覆盖体稳定性,洞内围岩变形量较小,初期支护及二衬整体受力特征得到了很大改善,小导管预注浆等处理措施效果显著。