A real time forecasting tool for dynamic travel time from clustered time series

This paper addresses the problem of dynamic travel time (DTT) forecasting within highway traffic networks using speed measurements. Definitions, computational details and properties in the construction of DTT are provided. DTT is dynamically clustered using a K-means algorithm and then information on the level and the trend of the centroid of the clusters is used to devise a predictor computationally simple to be implemented. To take into account the lack of information in the cluster assignment for the new predicted values, a weighted average fusion based on a similarity measurement is proposed to combine the predictions of each model. The algorithm is deployed in a real time application and the performance is evaluated using real traffic data from the South Ring of the Grenoble city in France.     

Using survival models to estimate bus travel times and associated uncertainties

Transit agencies often provide travelers with point estimates of bus travel times to downstream stops to improve the perceived reliability of bus transit systems. Prediction models that can estimate both point estimates and the level of uncertainty associated with these estimates (e.g., travel time variance) might help to further improve reliability by tempering user expectations. In this paper, accelerated failure time survival models are proposed to provide such simultaneous predictions. Data from a headway-based bus route serving the Pennsylvania State University-University Park campus were used to estimate bus travel times using the proposed survival model and traditional linear regression frameworks for comparison. Overall, the accuracy of point estimates from the two approaches, measured using the root-mean-squared errors (RMSEs) and mean absolute errors (MAEs), was similar. This suggests that both methods predict travel times equally well. However, the survival models were found to more accurately describe the uncertainty associated with the predictions. Furthermore, survival model estimates were found to have smaller uncertainties on average, especially when predicted travel times were small. Tests for transferability over time suggested that the models did not over-fit the dataset and validated the predictive ability of models established with historical data. Overall, the survival model approach appears to be a promising method to predict both expected bus travel times and the uncertainty associated with these travel times.     

城市轨道交通行车配线冗余设计研究

结合配线设置原则与依据、典型城市已运营线路配线布置和故障情况,从辅助配线布置形式、救援方式等角度分析配线设置与故障发生的关系并反思配线设计的不足,提出后续线路配线设计中应坚持运营功能为主的原则,并给出提高配线冗余设计的相关建议。     

桩体模量对水泥土搅拌桩复合地基破坏影响研究

针对目前水泥土搅拌桩复合地基整体稳定性研究主要基于假定全部桩体发生剪切或者弯曲破坏的不足，采用有限差分法，对不同位置处桩体的受力特性，破坏模式以及复合地基整体破坏过程的开展方向进行研究，在此基础上，分析桩体弹性模量对桩体受力、破坏模式和破坏顺序的影响。结果表明：水泥土搅拌桩复合地基在路堤荷载作用下，会同时发生弯曲与剪切2种破坏模式，并且水泥土搅拌桩受力在空间分布上具有很大的不同；路堤荷载作用下，桩体的破坏具有渐进性，坡肩以外桩体更易发生弯曲破坏，破坏方向由坡脚首先发生，并向路堤中心逐渐延伸，而路堤内侧桩体更容易发生剪切破坏，破坏方向由路堤中心向坡脚延伸；随着桩体弹性模量的增加，桩体会由剪切破坏转变为弯曲破坏；低模量水泥土搅拌桩复合地基会首先发生内部剪切破坏，之后坡脚处发生弯曲破坏；高模量水泥土搅拌桩复合地基会先于坡脚处发生弯曲破坏，随后在路堤中心发生剪切破坏；桩体弹性模量的提高会增加桩体抗弯刚度，使其承担更大的弯矩，更容易发生弯曲破坏。     

Mechanical Behavior of a Glass-fiber Reinforced Composite to Steel Joint for Ships

The use of a glass-fiber reinforced composite in marine structures is becoming more common, particularly due to the potential weight savings. The mechanical response of the joint between a glass-fiber ...     

水下盾构隧道弹性密封垫防水失效数值模拟研究

结合某水下盾构隧道工程的防水设计,采用大型有限元软件ABAQUS对弹性密封垫的防水失效机理进行数值模拟研究。将本文有限元模型与前人简化模型进行了对比分析,并对接缝张开及接缝错开情况下的密封垫防水失效机理进行了分析。研究表明,在接缝张开的情况下,渗漏主要发生在密封垫间的接触面上;接缝错开的情况下,随错缝位移的增大,渗漏将由发生在密封垫接触面上而转变为发生在密封垫与混凝土间的接触面上。     

Optimal Age Replacement Policy with Replacement Occurrence While the Warranty is in Effect

This study considers an age replacement policy(ARP) for a repairable product with an increasing failure rate with and without a product warranty. As for the warranty policy to consider in association with such an age replacement policy, we adapt a renewable minimal repair-replacement warrant(MRRW) policy with 2D factors of failure time of the product and its corresponding repair time. The expected cost rate during the life cycle of the product is utilized as a criterion to find the optimal policies for both with and without the product warranty. We determine the optimal replacement age that minimizes the objective function which evaluates the expected cost rate during the product cycle and investigate the impact of several factors on the optimal replacement age. The main objective of this study lies on the generalization of the classical age replacement policy to the situation where a renewable warranty depending on 2D factors is in effect. We present some interesting observations regarding the effect of relevant factors based on numerical analysis.     

Optimal Burn-in and Preventive Maintenance Modeling with Competing Failure Processes

In this article, we assume that the product in the burn-in procedure only experiences continuous smooth degradation process, while in the field operation period the product experiences both continuous smooth degradation process and shock process. The shock process can cause the product not only traumatic failure,but also additional abrupt degradation damage. After the system reliability model and maintenance model have been proposed, the optimal burn-in setting and age replacement duration are obtained under the considering of minimizing the long run average cost rate. A numerical example with the real data is analyzed to illustrate the application of the model.     

山区公路岩土复合型高切坡稳定性分析

山区路基开挖易形成岩土复合型高切坡,其破坏机制和稳定性分析通常当作单一岩质或土质边坡进行处理,并造成治理缺乏针对性和有效性。基于岩土复合型高切坡特点,将其破坏模式归纳为上部土体内部破坏、上部土体沿土岩界面破坏、下部岩层平面滑动、下部岩层倾倒破坏四种类型,进而提出了岩土复合型高切坡稳定性分析流程,并通过重庆某主干道山区公路工程算例进行了验证。结果表明:在对边坡进行优化设计的基础上,其稳定性能满足《建筑边坡工程技术规范》的要求。     

某黄土滑坡破坏机理数值研究

为了研究某黄土滑坡破坏的作用机理,运用有限元软件建立了三维有限元数值模型,分析了滑体和滑床之间的相互作用,研究了滑坡体破坏与加载变化影响因素的关系,并总结了在这些复杂因素下滑坡体应力变化规律。结果表明:在加载过程中,随着滑体的变形及拉裂,滑坡体的应力有从上部集中到整体分散的规律,当加载到一定程度时,滑体与滑床在顶端出现拉裂,进而沿着接触面迅速分离,滑坡的变形也从滑体的局部变形转变到滑体的整体失稳。数值模拟的结果与工程经验基本一致。