Modelling trip distribution with fuzzy and genetic fuzzy systems

This paper explores the potential capabilities of fuzzy and genetic fuzzy system approaches in urban trip distribution modelling with some new features. First, a simple fuzzy rule-based system (FRBS) and a novel genetic fuzzy rule-based system [GFRBS: a fuzzy system improved by a knowledge base learning process with genetic algorithms (GAs)] are designed to model intra-city passenger flows for Istanbul. Subsequently, their accuracy, applicability and generalizability characteristics are evaluated against the well-known gravity- and neural network (NN)-based trip distribution models. The overall results show that: traditional doubly constrained gravity models are still simple and efficient; NNs may not show expected performance when they are forced to satisfy trip constraints; simply-designed FRBSs, learning from observations and expertise, are both efficient and interpretable even if the data are large and noisy; and use of GAs in fuzzy rule-based learning considerably increases modelling performance, although it brings additional computation cost.     

基于韧性最优的灾后公路网修复调度研究

为有效修复灾后公路网的受损路段从而加快恢复路网畅通,研究以韧性最优为目标的灾后公路网修复调度问题。首先,采用交通需求满足率表示路网性能,并构建路网性能韧性和恢复速度韧性评价指标。其次,构建基于韧性最优的修复调度双层规划模型,其中上层模型是多目标混合整数规划模型,用以确定修复路段的选择和修复先后顺序,下层模型为日变交通流分配模型,模拟修复期间的路网交通流动态演变。然后,采用禁忌搜索算法和Frank-Wolfe算法分别求解上层模型和下层模型,并通过循环迭代得到模型最优解。最后,通过案例分析验证模型和算法的有效性。研究结果表明:在一定数量的修复资金和抢修队约束下,该模型得到的最优修复调度方案能最大限度地提升路网韧性,并且在修复过程中,只有当受灾区域内某线路中的所有受损路段均完成修复后,路网性能才开始呈阶梯式上升,并且路网性能的提升速度表现为先慢后快。对不同参数的敏感性分析表明:修复预算的增加使路网性能韧性和恢复速度韧性分别以15.65%和17.72%的平均速度增长和降低,但当修复预算超过1 800万元后,只增加修复预算不一定能获取更优的修复调度方案;当决策者偏好系数变化时,路网的性能韧性和恢复速度韧性具有相反的变化趋势,且2个韧性指标的平均变化率分别为5.96%和4.48%;增加抢修队数量可提升路网的性能韧性和恢复速度韧性,但增加抢修队数量所产生的边际效益逐步降低,分别由0.11和0.43降至0.01和0.02。     

南海岛礁火力打击作战目标选择模型

为了满足体系作战要求,结合南海岛礁火力打击作战的特点和实际,将岛礁群构成的目标体系抽象为网络,利用系统优势函数和网络效能评估目标体系的整体作战能力,以最大程度地降低整体作战能力为目标,建立目标选择模型,设计模型的求解算法.通过实例分析,得到了最优目标选择方案,验证模型和算法的有效性.研究成果解决了目标体系的目标选择问题,具有较大的应用价值和军事意义.     

水下传感器网络覆盖优化算法

针对水下传感器网络随机部署时节点分布不均匀、网络覆盖率不高问题,提出一种基于改进全局人工鱼群算法的网络覆盖优化算法。优化算法以覆盖率为目标函数自适应调整人工鱼移动步长,同时在向最优人工鱼靠拢过程中引入权重系数,提高算法寻优精度和收敛速度。实验结果表明,与遗传算法和鱼群算法相比较,该改进算法优化了网络覆盖率,加快了算法收敛速度,提升了网络性能。     

无线传感器网络中基于势能场的能量均衡模型

在无线传感器网中,现有的节能路由以找到能量消耗最小的路径为目标,导致围绕汇聚节点的能量空洞．网络能量均衡可以有效的利用和管理整个网络的节点能量,通过有效的分配网络负载,实现网络寿命的延长,网络效率的提高．本论文中提出了基于势能场的模型,建立了基于势能的路由,并且通过相位切换技术,达到局部和全局的能量均衡,从而延长无线传感器网络的使用寿命．     

Public responses to policies designed to internalise environmental and social externalities from road transport in New Zealand

Based on a public survey of registered voters, we explore four options for internalising the social and environmental costs of road transport. The options were presented together with generalised factual information about their benefits and costs. Respondents are highly supportive of fuel use efficiency standards and exhaust gas quality standards, with lesser support for proposed initiatives of road user charges and speed reduction. Demographic analysis of responses enables identification of those who might favour or oppose particular options. In this case women are identified as being strongly supportive of the speed reduction option.     

高负荷路网微循环交通组织实证研究

微循环交通组织是区域交通优化组织的重要方法.首先,在分析高负荷路网交通特征的基础上,归纳了微循环交通组织的常见问题及相应的改善措施;然后,结合中关村西区微循环交通组织实例,从OD划分、有效车流路径规划及信息诱导原则和方法三个方面,构建了有效路径下的微循环交通组织仿真模型及仿真流程;最后,利用VISSIM软件仿真,比较了...     

基于时间依赖网络的车辆调度问题研究

针对城市道路交通存在的不确定性问题,提出将动态车辆调度问题置于时间依赖网络的思想,建立了包括车辆固定成本费用、路阻费用和违反时间窗约束费用在内的广义费用最小化数学模型,采用改进的蚁群算法进行优化求解。仿真实验表明,该方法充分利用了城市道路交通时变性所呈现的周期性特点,是运输与物流企业进行车辆调度时节约成本的有效方法。     

A coupled multi-agent microsimulation of social interactions and transportation behavior

Choice set formation, location and mode preferences, coordinated scheduling, alternative utility valuations, and shared mobility resources are among the many activity-travel issues hypothesized to be significantly influenced by traveler interdependencies. Empirical evidence lags theory, particularly about the geography of social networks. A simulation tool is presented to let the experimenter construct and test hypothetical interdependencies between geography, socially-linked travelers, and activity-travel choices. The exploratory tool is integrated in the Multi-Agent Transportation Simulation Toolbox (MatSim-T). Initially, any social network can be constructed and embedded in geography. It can remain static, or be adapted to the travel patterns of the agents. The interactions and exchanges between agents influencing socializing and/or travel behavior can be defined in substance and in time/space. The reward for socializing or being socially linked can be varied. Finally, the co-dependence of social factors and travel behavior can be studied. This paper introduces the model and presents verification results which illustrate the coupling of extremely simplified socializing assumptions and travel behavior.     

The effect of social comparisons on commute well-being

We study the effect of social comparisons on travel happiness and behavior. Social comparisons arise from exchanges of information among individuals. We postulate that the social gap resulting from comparisons is a determinant of “comparative happiness” (i.e. happiness arising from comparisons), which in turn affects subsequent behavior. We develop a modeling framework based on the Hybrid Choice Model that captures the indirect effect of social comparisons on travel choices through its effect on comparative happiness.We present an empirical analysis of one component of this framework. Specifically, we study how perceived differences between experienced commute attributes and those communicated by others affect comparative happiness and consequently overall commute satisfaction. We find that greater comparative happiness arising from favorable comparisons of one’s commute to that of others (e.g. shorter commute time than others, same mode as others for car commuters, and different mode than others for non-motorized commuters) increases overall commute satisfaction or utility.The empirical model develops only the link between social comparisons and happiness in the comparisons-happiness-behavior chain. It is anticipated that the theoretical framework that considers the entire chain will enhance the behavioral realism of “black box” models that do not account for happiness in the link between comparisons and behavior.