Sensitivity-based uncertainty analysis of a combined travel demand model

Travel demand forecasting is subject to great uncertainties. A systematic uncertainty analysis can provide insights into the level of confidence on the model outputs, and also identify critical sources of uncertainty for enhancing the robustness of the travel demand model. In this paper, we develop a systematic framework for quantitative uncertainty analysis of a combined travel demand model (CTDM) using the analytical sensitivity-based method. The CTDM overcomes limitations of the sequential four-step procedure since it is based on a single unifying rationale. The analytical sensitivity-based method requires less computational effort than the sampling-based method. Meanwhile, the uncertainties stemming from inputs and parameters can be treated separately so that the individual and collective effects of uncertainty on the outputs can be clearly assessed and quantified. Numerical examples are finally used to demonstrate the proposed sensitivity-based uncertainty analysis method for the CTDM.     

应用广义最大覆盖模型进行公路养护应急中心布局选址研究

应用广义最大覆盖模型方法在江西省国省道公路网络中进行公路养护应急中心布局选址,将养护应急中心设置在县级及以上行政中心点上,在点的服务半径已知的条件下,求解如何设立数量最少的点便可覆盖所有区域.     

义乌工商学院体育馆设计特点分析

根据义鸟工商职业技术学院整体规划,结合体育馆基地的地形特点,顺应场地及交通流线布局,有机地把整个学院的运动场、篮球场和体育馆三方结合起来,综合考虑体育馆建筑的各种需要,从总体设计、平面布局、交通流线、立面设计、空同组合、节能等方面进行设计,实现了高校中小型体育馆教学性强、布局紧凑、功能多样、节能高效等特点,对类似工程具有一定的借鉴意义.     

Coastal erosion and sea level rise: Implications for ocean beach and San Francisco's westside transport project

Abstract

One of the consequences of sea level rise resulting from the greenhouse effect is increased coastal erosion. This article discusses a model of erosion that can be used to estimate the response of beaches to sea level rise. The model is applied to Ocean Beach, California, with particular attention to the consequences of accelerated erosion for the San Francisco Westside Sewer Transport. Results obtained show that erosion produced by accelerated sea level rise could cause substantial damage to the structure. Large expenditures on beach nourishment will be required to protect the transport and the recreational value of the beach.     

Operating cost based cruise speed reduction for ground delay programs: Effect of scope length

Ground delay programs typically involve the delaying of aircraft that are departing from origin airports within some set distance of a capacity constrained destination airport. Long haul flights are not delayed in this way. A trade-off exists when fixing the distance parameter: increasing the ‘scope’ distributes delay among more aircraft and may reduce airborne holding delay but could also result in unnecessary delay in the (frequently observed) case of early program cancellation. In order to overcome part of this drawback, a fuel based cruise speed reduction strategy aimed at realizing airborne delay, was suggested by the authors in previous publications. By flying slower, at a specific speed, aircraft that are airborne can recover part of their initially assigned delay without incurring extra fuel consumption if the ground delay program is canceled before planned. In this paper, the effect of the scope of the program is assessed when applying this strategy. A case study is presented by analyzing all the ground delay programs that took place at San Francisco, Newark Liberty and Chicago O’Hare International airports during one year. Results show that by the introduction of this technique it is possible to define larger scopes, partially reducing the amount of unrecovered delay.     

信号采样理论在交通流检测点布设中的应用

在对交通流检测点布设领域研究应用现状进行分析与抽象的基础上,提出交通流检测点布设本质上属于空间交通流信号采样问题。依据信号采样理论,建立了确定检测点间距或密度的方法与流程,该流程包括空间交通流信号产生、离散傅里叶变换、频谱分析、间距确定、误差分析5个步骤。对高速公路拥挤状态下的仿真分析表明:100 m的检测点间距可以满足对拥挤交通流状态的真实检测,该数值接近于实际应用中的最小值(125 m),说明该理论方法具有较好的实用性。     

基于JTG D62-2004的裂缝计算软件开发

介绍了采用VB编制的裂缝计算软件,弥补了大型有限元计算程序的不足,紧密联系规范,界面友好,能适用多种计算工况.     

AJAX技术在Struts验证框架中的应用研究

Ajax是当前流行的一种适用于Web应用开发中的技术，它可以实现无需刷新整个页面，就可以动态更新页面中一部分的内容本文。在介绍Ajax技术和Struts验证框架的基础上，提出了将Ajax技术运用于Struts验证框架中进行数据验证的方法。Struts验证框架通过加入Ajax技术，使得Web应用程序的运行效果更接近于桌面应用程序。     

武汉新区道路网规划研究

通过对城市新区道路网规划理念的分析,结合武汉新区道路网的现状,讨论了武汉新区对外、对内、慢行等道路交通系统的规划策略。     

物流集货中心作业单元布局方法

合理布局作业单无可以使集货中心节约物料搬运费用，降低物流成本，提高作业效率。在分析物流集货中心作业流程和作业单元构成的基础上，确定影响作业单元布局的主要因素——物流关系、管理关系、安全关系等，对作业单元的相互关系分别进行定量计算，得出作业单元综合相互关系量化表，依据此表及作业单元得分排序表进行物流集货中心作业单元布局设计。案例应用表明：此布局方法提高了物流集货中心作业单元布局的合理性。