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171.
A tour-based model of travel mode choice 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Eric?J.?MillerEmail author Matthew?J.?Roorda Juan?Antonio?Carrasco 《Transportation》2005,32(4):399-422
This paper presents a new tour-based mode choice model. The model is agent-based: both households and individuals are modelled within an object-oriented, microsimulation framework. The model is household-based in that inter-personal household constraints on vehicle usage are modelled, and the auto passenger mode is modelled as a joint decision between the driver and the passenger(s) to ride-share. Decisions are modelled using a random utility framework. Utility signals are used to communicate preferences among the agents and to make trade-offs among competing demands. Each person is assumed to choose the best combination of modes available to execute each tour, subject to auto availability constraints that are determined at the household level. The households allocations of resources (i.e., cars to drivers and drivers to ride-sharing passengers) are based on maximizing overall household utility, subject to current household resource levels. The model is activity-based: it is designed for integration within a household-based activity scheduling microsimulator. The model is both chain-based and trip-based. It is trip-based in that the ultimate output of the model is a chosen, feasible travel mode for each trip in the simulation. These trip modes are, however, determined through a chain-based analysis. A key organizing principle in the model is that if a car is to be used on a tour, it must be used for the entire chain, since the car must be returned home at the end of the tour. No such constraint, however, exists with respect to other modes such as walk and transit. The paper presents the full conceptual model and estimation results for an initial empirical prototype. Because of the complex nature of the model decision structure, choice probabilities are simulated from direct generation of random utilities rather than through an analytical probability expression. 相似文献
172.
In transportation studies, variables of interest are often influenced by similar factors and have correlated latent terms
(errors). In such cases, a seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) model is normally used. However, most studies ignore the potential
temporal and spatial autocorrelations across observations, which may lead to inaccurate conclusions. In contrast, the SUR
model proposed in this study also considers these correlations, making the model more behaviorally convincing and applicable
to circumstances where a three-dimensional correlation exists, across time, space, and equations. An example of crash rates
in Chinese cities is used. The results show that incorporation of spatial and temporal effects significantly improves the
model. Moreover, investment in transportation infrastructure is estimated to have statistically significant effects on reducing
severe crash rates, but with an elasticity of only −0.078. It is also observed that, while vehicle ownership is associated
with higher per capita crash rates, elasticities for severe and non-severe crashes are just 0.13 and 0.18, respectively; much
lower than one. The techniques illustrated in this study should contribute to future studies requiring multiple equations
in the presence of temporal and spatial effects.
Ms. Xiaokun Wang is a doctoral student in the Department of Civil, Architectural and Environmental Engineering at the University of Texas at Austin. She received her B.S. and M.S. degrees at Tsinghua University, China. Her research topics range from travel demand modeling and integrated land use-transportation planning, to spatial econometrics, network analysis, and traffic safety analysis. She is a fellow of the International Road Federation. Dr. Kara Kockelman is a Associate Professor of Civil, Architectural & Environmental Engineering and the William J. Murray Jr. Fellow at the University of Texas, Austin. She holds a PhD, MS, and BS in Civil Engineering, a Masters of City Planning, and a minor in Economics from the University of California at Berkeley. She is Chair of the Transportation Research Board’s Committee on Travel Survey Methods. Her primary research interests include the statistical modeling of urban systems (including models of travel behavior, trade, and location choice), economic impacts of transport policy, crash occurrence and consequences, and transport policy-making. 相似文献
Kara M. Kockelman (Corresponding author)Email: |
Ms. Xiaokun Wang is a doctoral student in the Department of Civil, Architectural and Environmental Engineering at the University of Texas at Austin. She received her B.S. and M.S. degrees at Tsinghua University, China. Her research topics range from travel demand modeling and integrated land use-transportation planning, to spatial econometrics, network analysis, and traffic safety analysis. She is a fellow of the International Road Federation. Dr. Kara Kockelman is a Associate Professor of Civil, Architectural & Environmental Engineering and the William J. Murray Jr. Fellow at the University of Texas, Austin. She holds a PhD, MS, and BS in Civil Engineering, a Masters of City Planning, and a minor in Economics from the University of California at Berkeley. She is Chair of the Transportation Research Board’s Committee on Travel Survey Methods. Her primary research interests include the statistical modeling of urban systems (including models of travel behavior, trade, and location choice), economic impacts of transport policy, crash occurrence and consequences, and transport policy-making. 相似文献
173.
以中国11 条物流通道为实证对象,综合测算物流通道技术水平,构造基于地理距 离的空间邻接权重矩阵,检验相关变量的空间自相关性,构建空间杜宾面板数据模型验证了 中国物流通道的空间溢出效应.研究表明:中国物流通道总体上具有显著的正向空间溢出效 应,但从分布于不同空间的物流通道看,长江、沿海、京九、陇海兰新和沪昆物流通道正向空间 溢出效应显著;而京沪、京广和宝昆物流通道研究期内空间溢出效应不显著.我国物流通道的 空间溢出效应具有显著的空间差异,应因地制宜地合理化建设物流通道. 相似文献