基于空间相似理论的线路走向决策方法研究

合理科学的线路走向会降低工程投资、提高运输效率,使线路在路网中发挥最佳的作用。为了研究线路走向合理科学的决策方法,通过分析影响线路走向的各种因素,提取主影响因子及属性特征,利用Arc GIS的空间分析、数据处理,实现属性单元的指标值量化。根据空间多维度相似的相似度计算方法,通过空间相似理论和提取出的主影响因子,构建设计线路方案决策模型,实现基于空间相似理论的线路走向决策。并以兰州张掖城际铁路选线为例进行实证分析,得到合理的线路走向推荐方案。结果表明,该方法可应用到线路走向决策中,可为以后线路走向的选定提供参考。     

A heuristic model of bounded route choice in urban areas

There is substantial evidence to indicate that route choice in urban areas is complex cognitive process, conducted under uncertainty and formed on partial perspectives. Yet, conventional route choice models continue make simplistic assumptions around the nature of human cognitive ability, memory and preference. In this paper, a novel framework for route choice in urban areas is introduced, aiming to more accurately reflect the uncertain, bounded nature of route choice decision making. Two main advances are introduced. The first involves the definition of a hierarchical model of space representing the relationship between urban features and human cognition, combining findings from both the extensive previous literature on spatial cognition and a large route choice dataset. The second advance involves the development of heuristic rules for route choice decisions, building upon the hierarchical model of urban space. The heuristics describe the process by which quick, ‘good enough’ decisions are made when individuals are faced with uncertainty. This element of the model is once more constructed and parameterised according to findings from prior research and the trends identified within a large routing dataset. The paper outlines the implementation of the framework within a real-world context, validating the results against observed behaviours. Conclusions are offered as to the extension and improvement of this approach, outlining its potential as an alternative to other route choice modelling frameworks.     

Optimal biofuel supply chain design under consumption mandates with renewable identification numbers

The Renewable Identification Number (RIN) system is a tracking mechanism that enforces the U.S. Renewable Fuel Standard by monitoring obligated parties’ compliance with the biofuel consumption mandates. This paper incorporates the RIN system into the design of a biofuel supply chain that addresses independent decisions of non-cooperative farmers, biofuel manufacturers, and blenders. Game-theoretic models are developed to examine the impacts of the RIN system on individual stakeholders’ decisions (e.g., on farmland use, bio-refinery investment, biofuel production) and the competition between food and biofuel industries, in both a perfectly competitive scenario and a monopoly scenario. For the perfectly competitive scenario, Nash equilibrium can be obtained by solving a convex optimization problem. For the monopoly scenario, a bi-level Stackelberg leader–follower model is developed, from which we found that a rigid mandate on blenders may suppress the total biofuel production. To avoid such unintended consequences, a relaxed unit-RIN based penalty scheme is proposed and shown to improve the overall biofuel supply chain performance. Managerial insights are drawn from a numerical case study for the state of Illinois.     

A spatial Difference-in-Differences estimator to evaluate the effect of change in public mass transit systems on house prices

Evaluating the impact of public mass transit systems on real-estate values is an important application of the hedonic price model (HPM). Recently, a mathematical transformation of this approach has been proposed to account for the potential omission of latent spatial variables that may overestimate the impact of accessibility to mass transit systems on values. The development of a Difference-in-Differences (DID) estimator, based on the repeat-sales approach, is a move in the right direction. However, such an estimator neglects the possibility that specification of the price equation may follow a spatial autoregressive process with respect to the dependent variable. The objective of this paper is to propose a spatial Difference-in-Differences (SDID) estimator accounting for possible spatial spillover effects. Particular emphasis is placed on the development of a suitable weights matrix accounting for spatial links between observations. Finally, an empirical application of the SDID estimator based on the development of a new commuter rail transit system for the suburban agglomeration of Montréal (Canada) is presented and compared to the usual DID estimator.     

Development of origin–destination matrices using mobile phone call data

In this research, we propose a methodology to develop OD matrices using mobile phone Call Detail Records (CDR) and limited traffic counts. CDR, which consist of time stamped tower locations with caller IDs, are analyzed first and trips occurring within certain time windows are used to generate tower-to-tower transient OD matrices for different time periods. These are then associated with corresponding nodes of the traffic network and converted to node-to-node transient OD matrices. The actual OD matrices are derived by scaling up these node-to-node transient OD matrices. An optimization based approach, in conjunction with a microscopic traffic simulation platform, is used to determine the scaling factors that result best matches with the observed traffic counts. The methodology is demonstrated using CDR from 2.87 million users of Dhaka, Bangladesh over a month and traffic counts from 13 key locations over 3 days of that month. The applicability of the methodology is supported by a validation study.     

A hierarchical rule-based land use extraction system using geographic and remotely sensed data: A case study for residential uses

Lack of detailed land use (LU) information and of efficient data gathering methods have made modeling of urban systems difficult. This study aims to develop a hierarchical rule-based LU extraction system using very high resolution (VHR) remotely sensed imagery and geographic vector data. Land cover information extracted from remote sensing and several types of geographic data from the study area, City of Fredericton, Canada, are fused into a comprehensive database, in order to develop a sophisticated LU Extraction Expert System (LUEES). This paper illustrates how the proposed LUEES though a case study for residential uses in the study area. Morphological (individual-based) analysis at the building-level is carried out through a step-wise binary logistic regression model, which differentiates residential and non-residential buildings and results in an overall accuracy of 93.1%. The results derived from morphological analysis are then subject to a post-correction process using a spatial arrangement analysis, in order to further mitigate the misclassification issues arising from the morphological analysis. In this regard, Gabriel Graph connectivity examines the spatial structure and arrangements of urban features concerning different LU types. It is found that the spatial arrangement analysis further enhances the residential LU classification accuracy, which gives rise to an overall accuracy of 97.4%. It is believed that, equipped with such a powerful LU data collection tool and resulting detailed/accurate LU data, urban planners/modelers should be able to more reliably and precisely represent/predict economic interactions, activity locations, space and housing developments, business expansion, and trip patterns.     

Economic analyses of sea-level rise adaptation strategies in transportation considering spatial autocorrelation

This paper reports the impacts of economic analysis results on sea-level rise adaptation decision making with different economic analysis methods. The methodology was applied to Hillsborough County, Florida. A general conclusion is that partial shoreline protection should be implemented to reduce the potential impacts of sea-level rise on important land use, then transportation infrastructure is preferred to be protected or accommodated, and finally managed relocation should be adopted. More specifically, the results show that the best adaptation strategy is shoreline protection plus transportation infrastructure accommodation; the length of shoreline protection plays an important role in the economic analysis results, and shoreline protection and accommodation adaptation strategies for all areas are not recommended because of either high costs or low benefits; the value of travel time saving and spatial autocorrelation play important roles in the economic analysis results of accommodation strategy, which highlights the importance of including indirect economic factors and spatial autocorrelation impacts when making sea-level rise adaptation decisions.     

A microscopic analysis of speed deviation impacts on lane-changing behavior

Driving behavior models that capture drivers’ tactical maneuvering decisions in different traffic conditions are essential to microscopic traffic simulation systems. This paper focuses on a parameter that has a great impact on road users’ aggressive overtaking maneuvers and directly affects lane-changing models (an integral part of microscopic traffic simulation models), namely, speed deviation. The objective of this research is to investigate the impacts of speed deviation in terms of performance measures (delay time, network mean speed, and travel time duration) and the number of lane-change maneuvers using the Aimsun traffic simulator. Following calibration of the model for a section of urban highway in Tehran, this paper explores the sensitivity of lane-changing maneuvers during different speed deviations by conducting two types of test. Simulation results show that, by decreasing speed deviation, the number of lane changes reduces remarkably and so network safety increases, thus reducing travel time due to an increase in network mean speed.     

Computing the cost of traffic congestion: a microsimulation exercise of the City of Antofagasta,Chile

Abstract

This paper computes the cost of traffic congestion in the city of Antofagasta in Chile. A microsimulation is implemented where all the agents of the system travel across the transport network. The congestion cost is computed through the aggregation of the opportunity cost of people waiting within the transport system, as a consequence of traffic congestion. Monte Carlo experiments produced an approximated congestion cost of US$1.02 million during a typical working day. Moreover, the simulation provides useful information about the average traveling time for the 14 districts of the city.     

依托铁路货场的临港物流园区规划研究——以莆田东站物流园区规划为例

临港物流园区凭借其优越的区位条件及强大的综合交通能力在我国发展迅速。为指导依托铁路货场的临港物流园区规划,以莆田东站物流园区规划为案例,基于MSFLB物流园区规划方法,着重分析影响规划的控制要素,创新规划理念,强化战略定位和发展目标,最终提出打造联运中心、中转枢纽及联动核心的规划构想,并据此对莆田东站物流园区空间布局进行详细设计,为指导此类物流园区规划提供了参考与借鉴。