A simulation approach for estimating value at risk in transportation infrastructure investment decisions

Traditional economic analysis techniques used in the assessment of Public Private Partnership (PPP) projects are based upon the assumption that future cash flows are fully deterministic in nature and are not designed to account for risks involved in the assessment of future returns. In reality, many of these infrastructure projects are associated with significant risks stemming from the lack of knowledge about future cost and benefit streams. The fundamental premise of the PPP concept is to efficiently allocate risks between the public and the private partner. The return based on deterministic analysis may not depict a true picture of future economic outcomes of a PPP project for the multiple agencies involved. This deficiency underscores the importance of risk-based economic analysis for such projects. In this paper, the authors present the concept of Value-at-Risk (VaR) as a measure of effectiveness (MOE) to assess the risk share for the public and private entity in a PPP project. Bootstrap simulation is used to generate the risk profile savings in vehicle operating cost, and in travel time resulting from demand-responsive traffic. The VaR for Internal Rate of Return (IRR) is determined for public and private entity. The methodology is applied to a case study involving such a joint venture in India, the Mumbai Pune Expressway/National Highway 4 (MPEW/NH4), and fiscal implications from the perspective of the public and the private entities are examined. A comparison between deterministic and risk based economic analysis for MPEW/NH4 is presented. Risk analysis provides insightful results on the economic and financial implications from each participant's viewpoint.     

A multi-criteria decision method for the analysis of the Motorways of the Sea: the application to the case of France and Spain on the Atlantic Coast

Despite European Union (EU) political support to identify the most feasible Motorways of the Sea, the final decision can only be made by Private Shipping Companies, which are operators of a unique stretch of the intermodal chain. This paper provides a multi-criteria decision method to identify the most suitable Motorways of the Sea taking into account the competitiveness of whole intermodal routes versus the alternative of road transport from the loader’s perspective. The analysis is carried out assuming a ‘many-to-many’ transport model. Firstly indexes of time and cost were defined and evaluated for every available route in the model in accordance with a multi-criteria decision matrix. Secondly, through a Monte Carlo simulation a sensitivity analysis was carried out in order to evaluate the influence on the results of the forecast assumed to construct the matrix. The results obtained are not only quantitative, but also qualitative. The development of intermodal routes via Motorways of the Sea is especially relevant for the peripheral EU countries. Due to the relevance of the freight flow between France and Spain and the congestion of their connections through the Pyrenees, the method proposed was applied to the analysis of this particular case     

A dynamic model for marginal cost pricing of port infrastructures

ABSTRACT

A dynamic model for marginal cost pricing of port infrastructures links costs to system performance by combining a power-law function with time-dependent queueing analysis. Additionally, the model incorporates the marginal cost of capacity, including the effects of economies of scale. This allows the calculation of the marginal cost price under a dynamic framework. The model accounts for nonlinear behaviour of port demand, which is sensitive to price and service levels. The effects over time of cost and service levels on the port’s operational performance are quantified. The proposed model allows determining the optimal timing for capacity investment. The model is a starting point for the application of marginal cost pricing to ports. However, for practical application of such pricing method it is necessary to apply a system’s approach, as productivity and costs must be assessed at the terminal’s component level. This should allow the derivation of a marginal cost function at the terminal’s component level.     

A fuzzy failure mode and effects approach to analyse concentrated inspection campaigns on board ships

ABSTRACT

Maritime actions against substandard operations of ships are a great deal of memorandum of understanding (MoUs) under regional basis agreements among port state control (PSC) organisations. Herein, concentrated inspection campaigns (CIC), performed by the different members of MoUs in certain periods, are a monitoring strategy to effectively control the core operational matters encountered in fire-safety systems, propulsion and auxiliary machinery system, lifesaving appliances, working conditions on board ships, etc. This paper proposes a quantified maritime safety analysis based on fuzzy failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) to evaluate CIC database of MoUs in order to achieve advance creative solutions. Demonstration studies are performed on the special database on fire-safety system deficiencies. Since the fuzzy FMEA outcomes point out the risk prioritisation numbers and relevant control options, the paper attempts to transform CIC feedback into useful information in terms of enhancing the ship PSC inspection concept (e-PSC inspection). The paper theoretically contributes to safety analysis methods in literature while demonstration of e-PSC inspections offers an insight into maritime industry in safety improvement.     

大桩帽轨道梁不同支承条件的受力分析

通过ANSYS软件对轨道梁的弹性点支承、刚性点支承、分布弹性支承以及空间模型进行有限元模拟,得出不同模型下的连续梁内力以及支座反力,并对不同模型的计算结果进行比较分析。计算结果表明,弹性点支承与刚性点支承模型在计算宽支座梁支座负弯矩时与分布弹性支承模型及空间模型差异较大,在支座边缘处采用弹性点支承模型计算弯矩削峰的方法已不再适用,同时得到宽支座梁支座反力、剪力等分布规律,可供大桩帽连续梁设计参考。     

舰船顶层设计中的耐波性预报模型研究

通过改变母船的船长和剖面参数来改变船型,得到系列样本船型,应用基于切片法理论的舰船耐波性计算程序对母船及样本船型进行计算,将所得计算结果进行多元回归分析,得到船舶耐波性预报数学模型.分别用耐波性计算程序和回归模型对例船进行计算,结果证明该预报模型具有较高的精度.     

82000t散货船船体结构振动控制

在82 000 t散货船的设计建造过程中,根据船舶机构减振设计的方法,首先,从设计阶段对主机和螺旋桨激励特性进行分析,确定采取一系列相应有效措施降低激励程度;然后,对船体总体振动特性进行分析,以避免出现总体共振。在详细结构设计过程中,应用结构有限元分析局部结构振动特性,设计上力求通过保持一定频率储备来避免出现有害振动。实船试航结果证明该设计过程不仅很好地处理了振动问题,而且测量结果也完全满足技术规格书要求的GB/T7452-2007对商船振动舒适性的要求。     

上海横沙新港址功能定位设想

在梳理上海港发展现状的基础上,分析存在的问题,提出研究背景;然后着重对腹地货运需求、江海联运、产 业支撑、港城空间发展、班轮干线网络、自由贸易区等重要因素进行分析,最后提出上海横沙新港的功能定位设想。     

297000dwt超大型油船噪声源分析及控制

研究了船舶噪声的主要来源,揭示了297000dwt超大型油船噪声源的分布规律,对实例噪声结果作了对比,并分析了噪声产生的原因及采取的降噪措施。     

自升式平台桩靴结构优化设计

结合有限单元法和尺寸优化理论,对某自升式海洋平台的桩靴结构进行了设计与优化。根据桩靴设计要求确定各部件尺寸和相应材料参数,以此建立桩靴的有限元模型。针对CCS对桩靴提出的工况依次进行分析计算,获得各工况下应力与位移的分布特征和土壤作用力在结构中的传递路径。然后进行板厚尺寸的优化。计算结果表明,桩靴在偏心工况且偏心角度为60°时应力达到最大,且土壤流失可能性最高;尺寸优化后,桩靴的质量明显减少,应力分布更加均匀,材料利用率得到有效提高。