舰载设备可靠性振动试验剖面设计方法研究

给出了一种基于实测数据的舰载设备可靠性振动试验剖面设计方法。应用数理统计理论,对舰载设备振动环境实测数据进行参数假设检验,得到具有不同区域和不同状态的特征样本。采用修正后的容差上限法归纳特征样本的随机振动规范谱,确定试验量值,再根据任务剖面确定试验时间,得到舰载设备可靠性振动试验剖面。结果表明,该方法理论完善,为舰载设备振动环境的可靠性评定奠定了基础。     

Vulnerability of Caribbean Island Cemeteries to Sea Level Rise and Storm Surge

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports that rising seas by the end of this century will increase the severity of coastal flooding and erosion. The Caribbean region is home to many small islands that are vulnerable to sea level rise and storm surge. Much of the literature examining impacts of sea level rise in the Caribbean focuses on ecosystems, infrastructure, and recreation. Few studies have examined how sea level rise will impact historic and culturally important places. In an effort to address this research gap, geographic information systems and crowd-sourced, georeferenced photographs were used to build a first-of-its-kind database of 542 Caribbean small island cemeteries. Vulnerable cemeteries were then identified based upon elevation, proximity to the ocean, and the coastal profile. Over one-fifth of the cemeteries surveyed are within 100 m of the coast. The highest concentrations of vulnerable cemeteries are on flat islands such as the Cayman Islands. Yet, some mountainous islands such as Saint Martin also have potentially vulnerable cemeteries. These findings suggest that the bereaved, cemetery managers, and managers of coastal areas that have cemeteries may have additional considerations when making long-term decisions about where and how to bury the deceased.     

RCrO4(R=Er,Tm)的电子结构和半金属铁磁性

用第一性原理研究了RCrO4(R=Er和Tm)氧化物的电子能带结构和半金属铁磁性,发现锆石相的RCrO4是优质的半金属铁磁材料,具有达到0.35eV的半金属能隙。为了研究磁相互作用的机制,采用密度泛函理论和广义梯度近似计算电子能带结构、态密度和自发磁矩,发现其磁性来源于R的f轨道电子、Cr的d轨道电子和O的p轨道电子的自旋极化。穿过费米能级的能带主要来源于R(4f)-O(2p)-Cr(3d)的杂化能级,并对磁性和电子输运性质起着关键作用。     

Robust autopilot with wave filter for ship steering

Research was done to overcome traditional problems associated with automatic steering systems of a ship in a seaway. A ship＇ s dynamic model with wave disturbances was built and a wave filter was designed by means of an extended states observer （ESO）. The model estimated the low frequency motion component from a heading measurement corrupted by colorednoise, so back-and-forth steering caused by high frequency wave disturbances was avoided. At the same time, a robust autopilot system, designed by variable structure control theory, was presented. Simulation results achieved in dangerous sea status show that the wave filter works very well and the autopilot has strong robustness to environmental disturbances and model perturbation, and more importantly, the frequency of rudder adjustments is reduced noticeably.     

基于压阻数的城轨交通地面储能系统选址方法

传统选址方法存在工作量大、步骤繁琐、易用性差的不足。基于城轨交通地面储能系统功能定位提出压阻数的概念,即全运营周期内所有列车运行至某站点时,该站点出现低电压的次数与制动电阻开启且持续一定时间的次数之和;提出基于压阻数的城轨交通地面储能系统选址方法。首先通过检测站点附近的低电压发生次数及制动电阻开启一定时间的次数计算压阻数;然后采用将平峰时段发车间隔作为选址仿真时的输入,在压阻数大于2 MP (M为全线列车数、P为每列车运行周期)的站点安装地面储能系统的选址策略;最后给出选址流程。算例研究表明:压阻数具有表征站点再生制动能量利用率和电能质量的能力;提出基于压阻数的选址方法是有效的,且受工况及运营图的影响小,具有普适性。     

A dynamic Bayesian network model for real-time crash prediction using traffic speed conditions data

Traffic crashes occurring on freeways/expressways are considered to relate closely to previous traffic conditions, which are time-varying. Meanwhile, most studies use volume/occupancy/speed parameters to predict the likelihood of crashes, which are invalid for roads where the traffic conditions are estimated using speed data extracted from sampled floating cars or smart phones. Therefore, a dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) model of time sequence traffic data has been proposed to investigate the relationship between crash occurrence and dynamic speed condition data. Moreover, the traffic conditions near the crash site were identified as several state combinations according to the level of congestion and included in the DBN model. Based on 551 crashes and corresponding speed information collected on expressways in Shanghai, China, DBN models were built with time series speed condition data and different state combinations. A comparative analysis of the DBN model using flow detector data and a static Bayesian network model was also conducted. The results show that, with only speed condition data and nine traffic state combinations, the DBN model can achieve a crash prediction accuracy of 76.4% with a false alarm rate of 23.7%. In addition, the results of transferability testing imply that the DBN models are applicable to other similar expressways with 67.0% crash prediction accuracy.     

Congestion mechanism and demand adjustment strategies for double-cell system with bottlenecks

In this paper, ramp systems on the Beijing 3rd ring road are described as double-cell ramp systems with a bottleneck. By analyzing empirical data for the Beijing 3rd ring road, we found that the initial states have an important impact on the final convergence states of the ramp systems. Then, we studied the dynamic process of the ramp systems, determined the congestion mechanism, and then designed a ramp control method based on the obtained mechanism. Under a feasible demand, double-cell ramp systems exhibit two typical cases, including an upstream-bottleneck system (in which the bottleneck cell is upstream) and a downstream-bottleneck system (in which the bottleneck cell is downstream). Then, a cell transmission model is used to analyze the dynamic evolution processes, starting from different initial states, and determine the congestion mechanism for each case. It is proven that the two systems have different possible equilibrium sets and congestion mechanisms. In an upstream-bottleneck system, the downstream always converges to the uncongested equilibrium, while the upstream bottleneck cell may experience congestion under certain initial states. In a downstream-bottleneck system, the congestion starts downstream, and then gradually propagates upstream. Furthermore, based on the different congestion mechanisms, two demand adjustment strategies are proposed, which redistribute the stationary feasible demand. The simulation results indicate that both systems can converge to uncongested equilibriums after demand adjustment. The ramp demand adjustment methods provide a scientific basis for urban traffic system management.     

Point queue models: A unified approach

In transportation and other types of facilities, various queues arise when the demands of service are higher than the supplies, and many point and fluid queue models have been proposed to study such queueing systems. However, there has been no unified approach to deriving such models, analyzing their relationships and properties, and extending them for networks. In this paper, we derive point queue models as limits of two link-based queueing model: the link transmission model and a link queue model. With two definitions for demand and supply of a point queue, we present four point queue models, four approximate models, and their discrete versions. We discuss the properties of these models, including equivalence, well-definedness, smoothness, and queue spillback, both analytically and with numerical examples. We then analytically solve Vickrey’s point queue model and stationary states in various models. We demonstrate that all existing point and fluid queue models in the literature are special cases of those derived from the link-based queueing models. Such a unified approach leads to systematic methods for studying the queueing process at a point facility and will also be helpful for studies on stochastic queues as well as networks of queues.     

Examining Local Coastal Zone Management Capacity in U.S. Pacific Coastal Counties

The coastal zone has critical natural, commercial, recreational, ecological, industrial, and esthetic values for current and future generations. Thus, there are increasing pressures from population growth and coastal land development. Local coastal land use planning plays an important role in implementing the U.S. Coastal Zone Management Act (CZMA) by establishing goals and performance policies for addressing critical coastal issues. This study extends the CZMA Performance Measurement System from the national level to the local land use level by measuring coastal zone land use plan quality and political context in fifty-three Pacific coastal counties. Plan quality is measured using an evaluation protocol defined by five components and sixty-eight indicators. The results indicate a reasonable correspondence between national goals and local coastal zone land use planning goals, but a slight gap might exist between the national/state versus local levels in the overall effectiveness of coastal zone management (CZM) efforts. The results show many U.S. Pacific coastal counties lack strong coastal zone land use plans because the average plan quality score was only 22.7 out of 50 points. Although these plans set relatively clear goals and objectives, they are somewhat weaker in their factual basis, identify a limited range of the available planning tools and techniques, and establish few coordination and implementation mechanisms. The regression analysis results indicate that CZM plan quality was not significantly related to any of the jurisdictional characteristics.