A multiobjective chance constrained programming model for supplier selection under uncertainty

Risk management is an inherent part of supplier selection. While companies are enjoying the benefits of outsourcing, risks brought by this practice should be taken into account in the process of decision making. This paper presents a multiobjective stochastic sequential supplier allocation model to help in supplier selection under uncertainty. Demand for products, capacities at suppliers as well as transportation and other variable costs are the main sources of uncertainty and are modeled using probability distributions. Disruptions are exogenous events and the model provides proactive mitigation strategies against disruptions by assigning backup suppliers who can be used in case of a default at a primary supplier. When there is no disruption, the model’s solution is an optimal supplier order assignment, considering operational risks.     

Modeling heterogeneous risk-taking behavior in route choice: A stochastic dominance approach

This paper proposes a unified approach to modeling heterogonous risk-taking behavior in route choice based on the theory of stochastic dominance (SD). Specifically, the first-, second-, and third-order stochastic dominance (FSD, SSD, TSD) are respectively linked to insatiability, risk-aversion and ruin-aversion within the framework of utility maximization. The paths that may be selected by travelers of different risk-taking preferences can be obtained from the corresponding SD-admissible paths, which can be generated using general dynamic programming. This paper also analyzes the relationship between the SD-based approach and other route choice models that consider risk-taking behavior. These route choice models employ a variety of reliability indexes, which often make the problem of finding optimal paths intractable. We show that the optimal paths with respect to these reliability indexes often belong to one of the three SD-admissible path sets. This finding offers not only an interpretation of risk-taking behavior consistent with the SD theory for these route choice models, but also a unified and computationally viable solution approach through SD-admissible path sets, which are usually small and can be generated without having to enumerate all paths. A generic label-correcting algorithm is proposed to generate FSD-, SSD-, and TSD-admissible paths, and numerical experiments are conducted to test the algorithm and to verify the analytical results.     

航海模拟器在海上搜救培训中的应用

海上搜救是一项需多单位协同配合的极其复杂的行动。作为专业的海上搜救单位和海上搜救的社会骨干力量,为了保证其人员应有的技术水平和熟练程度,需要经常地进行演习和培训;船长在考取适任证书以前也必须进行海上搜救的培训和评估。海上搜救实船演习、培训不仅组织困难,而且耗资巨大。本文通过多年成功的海上搜救培训经验,阐述了航海模拟器在海上搜救培训中应用的方式、方法,分析了其优缺点,并提出了相关建议。     

单层短程线网壳的优化设计

以短程线网壳的总质量为目标函数,以网壳的网格数、矢高、杆件截面面积和节点体积作为优化设计变量,采用一维搜索法与相对差商法相结合的序列两级优化方法进行截面优化设计。对不同跨度、不同矢跨比和不同网格划分密度的多个单层短程线球面网壳结构进行了计算,用回归分析法得出网壳最优网格划分数量、矢跨比、杆件截面面积和节点体积。     

混合蚁群算法求解集装箱箱位分配问题

集装箱船配载过程中的重要环节是合理的箱位分配,它对保证集装箱船装载后的航行性能及其码头装箱效率有重要的影响.随着集装箱船的大型化及待装船箱量的增加,该问题的求解较为困难.结合集装箱船配载中箱位分配的实际操作特点,提出了利用与禁忌算法相结合的混合蚁群算法来求解集装箱的箱位分配问题.仿真模拟试验表明该算法能够在不影响装箱难度的同时,大幅提高集装箱装船后船舶的航行性能.     

基于禁忌搜索算法求解车间作业调度问题

考虑了一个有限经济批量和交货时间计划的车间作业调度问题.在这条供应链上包含两个大的部门(生产加工部门和组装部门);多种工件首先需要经过加工部门多个车间的加工,然后送到组装部门组装成为成品;目标是如何组织安排各种工件在各个车间的各个机器上的加工顺序和加工开始时间使得此供应链上单位时间内的运输费,组装费和存储费用最小.此问题是一个NP难问题,为了找到满意解,本文利用禁忌搜索算法来解决此问题,并用MATLAB软件编写求解此问题的算法程序.从算法的数值试验过程来看,禁忌搜索的效率和效果均令人满意.     

考虑行驶时间不确定性的合乘路径鲁棒优化方法

为应对实际合乘过程中时间不确定性带来的负面影响,本文研究不确定行驶时间下的合乘问题。采用预算不确定集合描述时间变量,引入不确定性水平可调节的预算系数,构建以车辆总里程最短和车辆数最少为目标的合乘路径鲁棒优化模型。并设计两阶段算法求解,第1阶段以两乘客间的可行合乘路径为基础,从车辆总里程节省率和乘客时间窗匹配灵活性两方面设计公式量化合乘匹配机会,以匹配机会为权重构建乘客图网络并聚类乘客需求;第2阶段设计以顺序插入启发式方法构造初始解的禁忌搜索算法求解。案例数据实验结果表明：本文聚类方法能保证优化质量并提高85%以上的计算效率,同时能缩减乘客等车时间和绕行距离;增大预算系数时解的鲁棒性逐渐提高,但会增加10%~40%的车辆数并降低1%~10%的里程节省率;大规模乘客案例和窄时间窗案例的合乘路径对不确定时间的敏感性更高,宽时间窗案例无需增加过多额外车辆和总里程就能达到较高水平的路径鲁棒性。     

Is equilibrium in transport pure Nash,mixed or Stochastic?

The classical theory of transport equilibrium is based on the Wardrop’s first principle that describes a Nash User Equilibrium (UE), where in no driver can unilaterally change routes to improve his/her travel times. A growing number of economic laboratory experiments aiming at testing Nash-Wardrop equilibrium have shown that the Pure Strategy Nash Equilibrium (PSNE) is not able to explain the observed strategic choices well. In addition even though Mixed Strategy Nash Equilibrium (MSNE) has been found to fit better the observed aggregate choices, it does not explain the variance in choices well. This study analyses choices made by users in three different experiments involving strategic interactions in endogenous congestion to evaluate equilibrium prediction. We compare the predictions of the PSNE, MSNE and Stochastic User Equilibrium (SUE). In SUE, the observed variations in choices are assumed to be due to perception errors. The study proposes a method to iteratively estimate SUE models on choice data with strategic interactions. Among the three sets of experimental data the SUE approach was found to accurately predict the average choices, as well as the variances in choices. The fact that the SUE model was found to accurately predict variances in choices, suggests its applicability for transport equilibrium models that attempt to evaluate reliability in transportation systems. This finding is fundamental in the effort to determining a behaviourally consistent paradigm to model equilibrium in transport networks. The study also finds that Fechner error which is the inverse of the scale parameter in the SUE model is affected by the group sizes and the complexity of the cost function. In fact, the larger group sizes and complexity of cost functions increased the variability in choices. Finally, from an experimental design standpoint we show that it is not possible to estimate a noise parameter associate to Fechner error in the case when the choices are equally probable.     

基于中心分拨模式的多车场集送货一体化车辆优化调度方法

基于中心分拨理论的运输模式被很多大型物流企业所采用。因此研究其优化调度方法以确定各发车城市及车辆行驶路径。针对该优化问题建立数学模型及其求解框架,并利用改进的节约法求解,对得到的结果采用2-opt搜索算法进行修正。通过计算实例,说明了数学模型和求解方案的有效性。