船舶电力系统中基于BFS的开关动作排序控制方法

为了解决现有船舶电网保护方法难以达到复杂网络对保护选择性要求的弱势,提出基于广度优先搜索法(Breadth First Search)的开关动作排序法。该方法通过控制开关的延时长短,让上下级开关的时间设定值相互配合,达到保护选择性要求。最后用3个实例对比原有方法证明了新方法的优势和有效性。     

Confidence interval estimation for path flow estimator

The uncertainty of an origin-destination (O-D) trip table estimate is affected by two factors: (i) the multiplicity of solutions due to the underspecified nature of the problem, and (ii) the errors of traffic counts. In this paper, a confidence interval estimation procedure for path flow estimator (PFE) is developed for assessing the quality of O-D trip tables estimated from traffic counts. The confidence interval estimation consists of two parts: (i) a generalized demand scale (GDS) measure for quantifying the intrinsic underspecified nature of the O-D estimation problem at various spatial levels, and (ii) an error bound to quantify the contribution of input errors (traffic counts) to the estimation results. Numerical results using PFE as the O-D estimator show that the proposed confidence interval estimation procedure is able to separate the two sources of uncertainty in constructing the confidence intervals at various spatial levels. Simulation results also confirm that the proposed quality measure indeed contain the true estimates within the defined confidence intervals.     

驾驶员视觉搜索模式模糊聚类评价方法

针对用单一眼动参数评价驾驶员视觉搜索模式存在片面性和较大误差等不足,提出运用模糊理论,将驾驶员的注视持续时间、水平方向视角、垂直方向视角、扫视幅度和扫视速度5个主要表征参数综合起来进行评价的方法。通过真实交通环境中的实车试验,记录驾驶员行驶过程的眼动数据,建立模糊相似矩阵和模糊等价矩阵,依据聚类样本驾驶员的驾驶里程确定最佳阈值,将样本驾驶员视觉搜索模式分为4类,并以每类驾驶员视觉搜索模式特征为判别标准,运用择近原则对其他驾驶员的视觉搜索模式进行识别和评价。结果表明:所提出的驾驶员视觉搜索模式模糊聚类评价方法有效且可靠。     

某型航空反潜鱼雷搜索概率问题仿真研究

几种典型航空反潜鱼雷的搜索路径基本上是圆周形,其搜索区域可以看作是一个小圆.对鱼雷的搜索过程进行合理的假设简化,建立其搜索模型,并对发现潜艇这个随机事件作统计试验.分析结果可知,提高鱼雷搜索半径,降低鱼雷搜索前的延迟时间,可以显著改善鱼雷的发现概率;反潜机对目标的定位误差和鱼雷的投置偏差,都会影响到搜索概率;从不同角度攻击潜艇,潜艇采取的规避方式,也会影响到捕捉概率,这些结果是值得作战指挥员关注的.     

浅埋隧道施工引起的纵向地层移动与变形

应用随机介质理论分析浅埋隧道开挖施工引起的上覆地层纵向移动与变形,将隧道围岩看作一种随机介质,将隧道开挖所引起的上覆岩土体的移动看作一随机过程,从单元开挖引起的地层下沉入手,根据岩土体不可压缩的假定,得到了单元岩土体开挖引起的纵向地层水平移动公式,并据此推导了浅埋隧道开挖施工引起的沿隧道纵向上覆地层下沉、水平移动、倾斜、水平变形以及地层弯曲曲率的计算公式,并给出了圆形以及其它复杂形状隧道开挖横断面的具体计算方法。结果表明:随机介质理论用于计算由于浅埋隧道开挖引起的纵向上覆地层的移动与变形效果良好。     

Stochastic wave spectra estimation (SWSE) based on response surface methodology considering uncertainty in transfer functions of a ship

In this paper, a new wave spectra estimation method is proposed in which the frequency domain wave estimation method (FDWE) is extended into a probabilistic analytical framework in order to estimate the encountered sea states involving uncertainty in transfer functions of a ship. The proposed method, named the Stochastic Wave Spectra Estimation (SWSE), makes use of an Hermite polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) to represent the uncertainty in the transfer functions and the response surfaces. The method involves a mathematical formulation where an extension of the deterministic FDWE concept to the space of random variables is made. The proposed method can accurately and easily estimate the encountered wave spectra based on ship response measurements accounting for uncertainty in the transfer functions. In this paper, numerical and experimental investigations of the proposed SWSE are made, where the uncertainties in the transfer functions of heave and pitch motions of a containership are taken into account. The validity of the SWSE is demonstrated by comparison to results of uncertainty analyses through the Monte-Carlo simulations (MCS).