Investigating micro-simulation error in activity-based travel demand forecasting: a case study of the FEATHERS framework

Activity-based models of travel demand have received considerable attention in transportation planning and forecasting in recent years. However, in most cases they use a micro-simulation approach, thereby inevitably including a stochastic error that is caused by the statistical distributions of random components. As a consequence, running a transport micro-simulation model several times with the same input will generate different outputs, which baffles practitioners in applying such a model and in interpreting the results. A common approach is therefore to run the model multiple times and to use the average value of the results. The question then becomes: what is the minimum number of model runs required to reach a stable result? In this paper, systematic experiments are carried out using Forecasting Evolutionary Activity-Travel of Households and their Environmental RepercussionS (FEATHERS), an activity-based micro-simulation modelling framework currently implemented for the Flanders region of Belgium. Six levels of geographic detail are taken into account. Three travel indices – average daily activities per person, average daily trips per person and average daily distance travelled per person, as well as their corresponding segmentations – are calculated by running the model 100 times. The results show that the more disaggregated the level, the larger the number of model runs is needed to ensure confidence. Furthermore, based on the time-dependent origin-destination table derived from the model output, traffic assignment is performed by loading it onto the Flemish road network, and the total vehicle kilometres travelled in the whole Flanders are subsequently computed. The stable results at the Flanders level provides model users with confidence that application of FEATHERS at an aggregated level requires only limited model runs.     

牵引车车架横梁开裂分析及优化改善

针对某牵引车车架横梁开裂事件,使用Creo构建整车三维模型,导入Hyperworks中进行前处理网格划分等,使用Optistruct进行求解得出弯曲、制动、左转弯、右转弯、扭转、扭转+转弯工况等分析结果,将结果与实际开裂情况进行了对比,结果表明在扭转+转弯工况下第三横梁开裂,与分析结果一致,并提出横梁优化方案进行求解,分析结果表明在扭转+转弯工况下,第二横梁最大应力值降低38.1%,第三横梁最大应力值降低64.3%,提出后续牵引车设计时横梁优化意见及注意事项。     

自升式平台升降装置设计与强度分析

针对自升式平台升降装置长期依赖进口的现状,自主设计研发了400英尺及以上作业水深的自升式平台电动齿轮齿条传动升降装置,并对其关键部件爬升齿轮进行了重点设计及强度分析。通过DNV及相关规范与有限元结果对比的方法对升降装置关键部位在风暴自存工况下进行强度校核,分析其结构强度性。根据方案设计生产升降装置样机,并对试验样机并进行了载荷试验、疲劳试验,试验结果表明,该装置符合设计和使用要求,为自升式平台升降装置设计提供指导与参考。     

Development of railway station choice models to improve the representation of station catchments in rail demand models

ABSTRACT

This paper describes the development of railway station choice models suitable for defining probabilistic station catchments. These catchments can then be incorporated into the aggregate demand models typically used to forecast demand for new rail stations. Revealed preference passenger survey data obtained from the Welsh and Scottish Governments was used for model calibration. Techniques were developed to identify trip origins and destinations from incomplete address information and to automatically validate reported trips. A bespoke trip planner was used to derive mode-specific station access variables and train leg measures. The results from a number of multinomial logit and random parameter (mixed) logit models are presented and their predictive performance assessed. The models were found to have substantially superior predictive accuracy compared to the base model (which assumes the nearest station has a probability of one), indicating that their incorporation into passenger demand forecasting methods has the potential to significantly improve model predictive performance.     

Analysis of Ground Response and Structure Stress Induced by PBA Method北大核心CSCD

The application of prefabricated tunnel technology has been become a new research field both in China and abroad. Based on the running tunnel between Yufuhe station and Wangfuzhuang station of Jinan rail transit line R1, a new prefabricated tunnel construction technology, the PBA method is presented. This paper makes a detailed discussion on section form, supporting scheme and construction process of the PBA method. In this study, 3D a new 3D numerical model for PBA method is presented by finite difference numerical simulation software Flac and the construction processes are modeled. The rule of ground surface settlement, ground deformation and structural stress caused by PBA method is studied in detail. Results show that the structure of PBA method can effectively control the deformation magnitude and scope. Stress concentration appears at the prefabricated connection parts and the reinforcement needs to check. The total assembled structure forms the load-bearing system after the completion of the lateral wall. The built-in depth of the precast pile and pile bottom grouting quality should to be ensured to control the displacement of the precast piles. The results of this study will be a useful reference for similar projects in the future. © 2018, Editorial Office of "Modern Tunnelling Technology". All right reserved.     

Analysis on the Effects of Overloading on the Mechanical Properties of Tunnel Structures in the Silty Ground --A Case Study of Sutong River-crossing GIL Utility Tunnel北大核心CSCD

Based on the Sutong GIL utility tunnel project, which is constructed by the shield machine under the river, and as for the overloading problem at the river bank slope during operating period, the refined threedimensional finite element model was established to study the deformation and cracking characteristics of the tunnel segment structure under different forms of overloading. The evolution laws of section convergence, joint opening and structural stress were analyzed, and the structure damage mechanisms were revealed under conditions of large area loading and local loading. The surface-surcharge control standard was proposed. For the big diameter shield tunneling crossing the silty clay, the research results show that: (1) the deformation failure process is divided into three stages under large area loading condition, taking the design load and compressive yield of rebars inside haunch as the critical points respectively. The first stage is characterized by the elastic stress, the second stage is in plastic state with fracture, and the third stage is accelerating deformation and instability stage. The vertical convergence is 110.5 mm with no opening of joints when rebars are yielded; (2)the deformation failure process under local loading condition is also divided into elasticity, plasticity and instability stages, taking the design load and tensile yield of rebars outside haunch as the critical points respectively. The vertical convergence is 152.6 mm with joint opening of 4.36 mm; (3) the early-warning values of additional stress on the ground under conditions of large area loading and local loading are 110 kPa and 70 kPa respectively. © 2018, Editorial Office of "Modern Tunnelling Technology". All right reserved.     

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为了适应经济发展，我国许多城市加快了轨道交通的建设步伐。私营公司与政府签订合作协议，共同参与运营管理，这打破了以往一家运营商的垄断局面。如何在保证高质量的运营效率的同时，兼顾各家运营商的收益分配，运费清分的研究显得十分重要。本文分析了影响清分的主要因素和原则，建立有效路径选择模型和基于概率的多路径选择模型。采用改进的遍历算法以保证有效路径集的完整性。利用c++程序计算出各条路径的分担比例和各家运营商的清分比例，给出了提高清分比例的研究结论和建议。     

强迫布鲁塞尔振子相图的研究

针对强迫布鲁塞尔振子模型的Ｆａｒｅｙ序列与Ｍ．Ｓ．Ｓ序列进行了扩大区域的研究，表明单峰映中看成圆映象的近似，并建立了圆映象的相图，单峰映象的相图及符号动力学间的关系。     

基于能量分配的特定畸形波序列的数值模拟

文章对一个理论畸形波序列进行了数值模拟并且将数值结果与理论值做了对比.采用速度入口方法以实现波浪模拟.在造波边界处不考虑高阶波浪成分,只输入线性波浪速度.分别采用三种不同分辨率的网格进行数值模拟,以找到足够有效捕捉自由面的网格模型.考虑到快速傅里叶变换不能反映畸形波的时频特征,因而引入小波变换研究畸形波传播过程中的能量变化.最后比较了北海实测畸形波和文中理论畸形波小波变换的差异.     

黏土中圆形低真空隧道管片结构内力分布及其影响因素

针对盾构隧道管片结构在不同环境下的受力性能,建立基于修正惯用法的力学模型,推导出圆形低真空隧道管片结构内力的解析解;以武汉黏土作为模拟地层,分别采用修正剑桥模型和弹簧模型,模拟分析圆形低真空隧道结构的内力分布;在获得解析解和2种数值解的基础上,对比分析特定工况下3种方法得到的隧道管片结构内力分布,探讨真空力、弯曲刚度有...