Uncertainty analysis of extreme mooring loads associated with environmental contours and peak tension distributions

This paper aims to assess the uncertainty on the extreme mooring loads of floating system considering short-term variability. Two environmental contour approaches based on the inverse First and Second Order Reliability Methods are employed to identify critical sea states that may give rise to extreme loads. The uncertainty related to the construction of environmental contours is addressed including significant differences due to marginal distribution fitting, parameter estimation methods and joint models. Three measured datasets are analysed using a known conditional joint distribution and proposed mixed copula model. 3-h time domain numerical simulation for each sea state is conducted and the characteristic extreme responses of mooring lines subjected to design loads are assessed. The uncertainties due to various statistical models including the average conditional exceedance rate method as well as global maxima, peak-over-threshold method combined with Gumbel distribution, Generalized Extreme Value distribution, Generalized Pareto distribution and 3-parameter Weibull distribution are investigated and quantified. It is observed that marginal distributions, joint models and parameters estimation methods have apparent effect on design loads estimation, and the extreme tensions of the semi-submersible platform shows significant difference using various probabilistic models. The results indicate that those epistemic uncertainties should be account for in the reliability analysis or safety factor calibration for mooring systems.     

Bi-fidelity Kriging model for reliability analysis of the ultimate strength of stiffened panels

A method based on a Bi-fidelity Kriging model is proposed for structural reliability analysis. It is based on adding low-fidelity data samples to the model to predict high-fidelity values, thus saving computational effort. Distance Correlation develops the correlation between the low and high-fidelity functions, initially proposed to assess the correlation between two variables. The bi-fidelity Kriging response surface model's efficiency as a surrogate model will be assessed for structural reliability problems that demand high computational costs, such as nonlinear finite element analysis structural models. The efficiency assessment is performed by comparing the accuracy of the failure probability predictions based on the Subset Simulation and First-order reliability method using the Bi-fidelity Kriging model as a surrogate for the performance function. The idea is illustrated by considering a representative component of marine structures analyzed by finite element analysis to create bi-fidelity scenarios to assess structural reliability with many variables. The results show that the proposed multi-fidelity method can provide an accurate failure probability estimation with less computational cost.     

Estimation of road transport related air pollution in Saint Petersburg using European and Russian calculation models

The paper analyzes Russian and European emission and dispersion models aimed at the estimation of road transport related air pollution on street and regional scale as exemplified with St. Petersburg, Russia. It demonstrates the results of model calculations of peak concentrations of main harmful substances (NО_X, CO and PM₁₀) along the St. Petersburg Ring Road at high traffic volume and adverse meteorological conditions (calm, temperature inversion) executed by means of a Russian street pollution model, and it evaluates the computed results against the measurements from monitoring stations. The paper also examines the ways of adaptation of the COPERT IV model – a software tool for calculation of air pollutant and greenhouse gas emissions from road transport on regional or country scale – to the inventory conditions of the Russian Federation, compares the COPERT IV numerical estimates with the national inventory data. It also reveals the obstacles and possibilities in the harmonization of the Russian and European approaches.     

桥道系结构形式对中承式钢管混凝土拱桥受力影响分析

在分析中承式钢管混凝土拱桥常用桥道系结构形式特点的基础上,首次提出一种新型的桥道系结构形式———简支连续组合桥道系,并运用大型结构有限元分析软件MSC Nastran进行数值仿真计算,研究不同桥道系结构形式对桥梁结构静、动力特征的影响。通过对比分析发现:不同桥道系结构形式对钢管混凝土拱肋的受力性能、结构的整体稳定性及动力性能的影响没有显著差异;简支连续组合桥道系较好地继承了简支和连续桥道系的优点,是中承式钢管混凝土拱桥的合理桥道系结构形式。     

The numerical friction line

This paper presents a study on the numerical calculation of the friction resistance coefficient of an infinitely thin plate as a function of the Reynolds number. Seven eddy-viscosity models have been selected: the one-equation turbulence models of Menter and Spalart–Allmaras; the k-ω two-equation model proposed by Wilcox and its TNT, BSL and SST variants and the two-equation model. The flow has been computed at 14 Reynolds numbers in sets of seven geometrically similar Cartesian grids to allow a reliable estimation of the numerical uncertainty. The effect of the computational domain size has been reduced to negligible levels (below the numerical uncertainty). And the same holds for the iterative and round-off errors. In the finest grids of each set, the numerical uncertainty of the friction resistance coefficient is always below 1%. Special attention has further been given to the solution behaviour in the laminar-to-turbulent transition region. Curve fits have been applied to the data obtained at the 14 Reynolds numbers and the numerical friction lines are compared with four proposals from the open literature: the 1957 ITTC line, the Schoenherr line and the lines suggested by Grigson and Katsui et al. The differences between the numerical friction lines obtained with the seven turbulence models are smaller than the differences between the four lines proposed in the open literature.     

生产率降低损失计算中成本的模糊估测模型

讨论了在工程项目索赔中因生产率降低所造成损失的索赔问题。利用时间序列指平滑原理方法和模糊数学理论,给出了因生产率降低所造成损的计算中成本的模糊估测方法,     

铁道车辆液压锚定机械手

针对铁道车辆在港口、厂矿等装卸时需要固定的要求,研制出铁道车辆液压锚定机械手。机械手最大锚定力为450 kN,在非工作状态时设备最高点不高出轨面。机械手采用液压驱动,由升降臂、伸缩臂和末端手爪组成。升降臂采用双杆结构的四连杆机构,并对伸缩缸、支撑杆等关键部件进行强度校核。液压系统采用节能设计,并利用液压锁实现机械手的位置锁定。采用程序互锁和行程时间联合冗余控制,以保障系统的可靠性。现场使用表明,机械手在1.5 m水平距离内可实现车辆空间位置自动寻找、自动摘挂车钩、定位和位置锁定,达到设计目标,可实现安全高效生产。     

缓解快速线路曲线入口结构性晃车问题的探讨

为减小列车由直线进入曲线时车轮对轨道产生的横向冲击力，对曲线入口的结构性晃车问题进行了分析，进而对轮轨游间及相关技术标准进行了讨论，从机车车辆和线路2个方面提出了建议。     

AAM图像检索技术在现代化作战中的应用

概述基于内容的图像检索技术。利用图像局部特征,提出以动态外观模板图像检索技术对特定人员进行身份识别的方法。     

RANS simulation of a container ship using a single-phase level-set method with overset grids and the prognosis for extension to a self-propulsion simulator

Steady flow simulations for the Korean Research Institute for Ships and Ocean Engineering (KRISO) container ship (KCS) were performed for towing and self-propulsion. The main focus in the present article is on the evaluation of computational fluid dynamics (CFD) as a tool for hull form design along with application of state-of-the-art technology in the flow simulations. Two Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) equation solvers were employed, namely CFDShip-Iowa version 4 and Flowpack version 2004e, for the towing and self-propulsion cases, respectively. The new features of CFDShip-Iowa version 4 include a single-phase level-set method to model the free surface and an overset gridding capability to increase resolution in the flow and wave fields. The new features of Flowpack version 2004e are related to a self-propulsion scheme in which the RANS solver is coupled with a propeller performance program based on the infinitely bladed propeller theory. The present work is based on a close interaction between IIHR-Hydroscience and Engineering of the University of Iowa and Osaka Prefecture University. In the following article, overviews are given of the present numerical methods and results are presented and discussed for the KCS in towing and self-propulsion modes, including comparison with available experimental fluid dynamics (EFD) data. Additional evaluation is provided through discussion of the recent CFD Workshop Tokyo 2005, where both methods appeared to yield very promising results.