A validation measure for computational scheduler activity-based transportation models based on sequence alignment methods

In recent decades, activity-based transportation models have gained growing attention, due to their strong foundation in behavioral theory and ability to model the response of individuals to travel demand management policies. Hence, researchers have become increasingly interested in analyzing and predicting individuals’ decisions about activity participation. This paper investigates the reliability and uncertainty of computational process activity-based models. The design of the scheduling process model is experimented with by introducing an alternative decision sequence. The results provide additional information to better understand the process model’s reliability and behavior. Furthermore, the findings show that the current sequence of decision steps in the process model in ALBATROSS achieves satisfactory work activity schedules. Finally, the study concludes that using a decision tree model achieves a better performance than using diverse data mining approaches.     

Resilience of Touristic Island Beaches Under Sea Level Rise: A Methodological Framework

This contribution addresses the need for a simple model for managers to employ when planning strategies for the management of touristic beaches under sea level rise. A methodological framework was developed and tested in two Aegean archipelago islands (Lesvos and Rhodes, Greece). The scheme can represent the status of touristic island beaches, based on easily obtained variables/indicators and projections of beach erosion/retreat under different scenarios of mean sea level rise (MSLR) and extreme events. Information on beach geomorphological characteristics, environmental setting, water quality, management, and services (such as those used in the “Blue Flag” classification) was collated/collected and beach erosion/retreat due to CV & C was estimated through suitable ensembles of cross-shore (1-D) morphodynamic models. A Strength-Weaknesses-Opportunities-Threats (SWOT) framework was employed to assist in the selection of indicators and multicriteria analysis used to optimize indicator weights and rank beaches according to their sustainability under sea level rise. Implementation of the framework at the two islands has shown that: the majority of Lesvos and Rhodes beaches (82% of a total of 217 beaches and 58% of a total of 97 beaches, respectively) can be classified as beaches with no, or minimal, human interference, suggesting that under environmentally sound coastal management further touristic development might be afforded; there could be very significant effects of the sea level rise on the carrying and buffering capacities of the most developed (“Blue Flag”) beaches, with some expected even under conservative projections to be completely eroded by 2100, unless technical adaptation measures are taken; and using the proposed framework, touristic beaches can be rapidly ranked in terms of their resilience to sea level rise and their development potential, allowing prioritization of effective management responses.     

行星滚柱丝杠90kN电动缸强度分析及结构优化

本文以行星滚柱丝杠90kN电动缸为研究对象,首先进行传力链分析,得出关键受力部件,然后通过有限元方法,对经典公式校核过的关键部件进行复验,另外对于经典公式无法校核计算的受力部件进行强度校核。在完成关键部件仿真分析的基础上,针对薄弱点提出了结构优化方案,并对该方案进行了仿真验证。     

Duration analysis for recurrent ship accidents

About 63% of the world’s shipping accidents are recurrent—they occur to ships that have already experienced at least one prior accident. Therefore, reducing recurrent accidents can contribute significantly to maritime safety. We study the factors affecting both first and recurrent accidents, by focusing on the duration between two accidents. Cox proportional hazard models are applied to ship accident data from 1996 to 2015, and the results identify which ships have a high risk of recurrent accidents, based on ship attributes, ship supply and market conditions, shipbuilding country, previous accident type, and ship type. The recurrent rate is high when the ship involved in the accident is old, small, flies a flag of convenience, and has no detention record. In addition, the accident risk increases when the shipping market faces a high bunker price, overcapacity in supply, a high time charter rate, or low newbuilding price. On the other hand, ships built in China and Japan have lower recurrent accident rates than those built elsewhere, although ships built in China have earlier first accidents than do others. General cargo ships have the highest recurrent accident rate, followed by dry bulkers, container ships, and tankers, in that order.     

Developing an activity-based trip generation model for small/medium size planning agencies

The primary shortcoming of traditional four-step models is that they cannot capture derived travel demand behaviors. However, travel demand modeling (TDM) is an essential input for urban transportation planning. TDM needs to be highly precise and accurate by integrating the accurate base year estimation along with suitable alternatives. Currently, activity-based models (ABMs) have been developed mostly for large metropolitan planning organizations (MPO), whereas smaller/medium-sized MPOs typically lack these models. The main reason for this disparity in ABM development is the complexity of the models and the cost and data requirements needed. We posit however that smaller MPOs could develop ABMs from traditional travel surveys. Therefore, the specific aim of this paper is to develop a probabilistic home-based destination activity trip generation model considering travel time behavior. Results show that the developed model can significantly capture the actual number of trip generations.     

基于成本-效益分析的公共停车场建设评估模型

首先论述了公共停车场建设前进行成本-效益分析的重要性.通过对目前公共停车场建设项目评估方法的分析和比较,对费用效益分析法、层次分析法和模糊综合评判进行了综合运用.结合交通建设项目特点,构建了公共停车场的效益评估指标体系,并选择使用升半岭形分布函数作为隶属函数对效益评估数据进行处理.使用费用效益分析法对公共停车场建设进行投资成本计算,并使用极差变换法得出评估结果.在分别给出成本和效益的评估方法和评估模型基础上,最后综合得出停车场建设评估模型,并通过实例说明了该方法的实用性.     

水运OD矩阵的推算模型研究

交通OD矩阵是交通量预测的基础,但由于资料调查工作量大且精度难以控制,水运OD矩阵往往难以通过调查直接得到。鉴于此,基于对现有OD矩阵推算模型的研究与分析,并结合水上运输及其运输量调查资料的特性,提出了一种利用水运港口吞吐量和水运客货运平均运距推算水运OD矩阵的计算模型,由此可推算得到水运OD矩阵,供相关分析研究之用。     

浅谈钢质有限航区海船船体构件尺寸的折减

钢质国内航行海船有限航区船体构件尺寸的折减方法,规范表述容易引起岐义,本文通过以单底海船实肋板的剖面模数计算为例,提出合理的规范折减方法。     

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研究印度城市道路上设置公交专用道后小汽车出行向公交转移的可能性. 借助新的混合交通流仿真模型测定设置公交专用道后公交服务水平改善状况. 基于陈述偏好入户调查的抽样数据,本文还引入其他影响出行方式转移的变量,标定出行方式选择二元Logit模型. 根据实际和预测数据,确定了公交服务水平改善条件下小汽车出行向公交转移的一系列主要影响因素. 基于两种方式出行时间差,绘制出行方式转换概率曲线,并为多变量宽值域条件下交通方式转移的预测提供一种易于操作的方法.     

车用结构胶有限元模型方法的分析与比较

随着车用结构胶技术的进步,其性能不仅可以满足大量新型复合材料的连接工艺要求,而且可以弥补在汽车碰撞过程中点焊连接工艺应力集中的缺陷,因此开展对车用结构胶的研究十分必要。文章从有限元方法分析的角度,在总结国内外有关结构胶有限元模型的前提下,综合模型的理论基础、模型计算时间、模型仿真结果与试验的比较等因素,评价各模型特点,结合整车碰撞有限元模拟的要求,论证得出一维模型方法更适用于整车碰撞模拟。