Terminal investment timing decisions in a competitive setting with uncertainty using a real option approach

This paper uses a real option approach to analyze terminal investment timing decisions for situations in which a port faces competition from its rivals in an uncertain market. We propose a network model to describe carriers’ cargo routing decisions and competition among rival ports. We then transform this model into a multicommodity flow problem and use the column generation algorithm to solve it. After obtaining a port’s possible future annual revenues and the potential net present value (NPV) for its terminal construction project through the network model, we adopt the expanded NPV rule and transform the investment timing decision into an optimal stopping problem. A least squares Monte Carlo simulation algorithm is proposed to find the investing probabilities for future years. The proposed models are applied to a steel cargo terminal investment case in the Port of Bengbu in Anhui province of China. The impacts on the investing probability and the expanded NPV of changes in the demand volatility, the initial investment and the port discharging rate are analyzed to provide managerial insights for port managers.     

回拉式弹簧端子静接点组设计及测试

针对当前国内使用的螺母固定引线方式静接点组存在易松动、导电性能差等缺点,常发生引线接触不良的问题,改进设计一种新型的整体式结构静接点组,其接点弹片的引线端子采用回拉式弹簧端子。测试结果表明其各项指标符合技术要求,解决了压线环方式易断,线绕制方式工序繁琐、效率低下的问题。