Assessing the impact of reduced visibility on traffic crash risk using microscopic data and surrogate safety measures

Due to the difficulty of obtaining accurate real-time visibility and vehicle based traffic data at the same time, there are only few research studies that addressed the impact of reduced visibility on traffic crash risk. This research was conducted based on a new visibility detection system by mounting visibility sensor arrays combined with adaptive learning modules to provide more accurate visibility detections. The vehicle-based detector, Wavetronix SmartSensor HD, was installed at the same place to collect traffic data. Reduced visibility due to fog were selected and analyzed by comparing them with clear cases to identify the differences based on several surrogate measures of safety under different visibility classes. Moreover, vehicles were divided into different types and the vehicles in different lanes were compared in order to identify whether the impact of reduced visibility due to fog on traffic crash risk varies depending on vehicle types and lanes. Log-Inverse Gaussian regression modeling was then applied to explore the relationship between time to collision and visibility together with other traffic parameters. Based on the accurate visibility and traffic data collected by the new visibility and traffic detection system, it was concluded that reduced visibility would significantly increase the traffic crash risk especially rear-end crashes and the impact on crash risk was different for different vehicle types and for different lanes. The results would be helpful to understand the change in traffic crash risk and crash contributing factors under fog conditions. We suggest implementing the algorithms in real-time and augmenting it with ITS measures such as VSL and DMS to reduce crash risk.     

时间反演在浅海波导环境中的应用研究

本文基于伪谱方法对浅海波导环境中的时间反演聚焦和时间反演主动声纳进行了计算,给出了声源频率为100Hz的正演和反演声场分布的演化过程。     

混凝土抗裂能力评价模型的解析

综述了目前国内外混凝土抗裂能力评价计算模型,通过综合各方面影响因素,首次建立了混凝土抗裂能力分析模型,并考虑混凝土的经时变化,创建混凝土及其结构抗裂能力评价模型,用抗裂因子Kac作为评价混凝土抗裂能力的数学参数。选择具有代表性的混凝土配合比,分别计算了粉煤灰、矿渣、硅灰、膨胀剂、减缩剂、聚丙烯纤维组分的抗裂因子,通过数学计算得出的抗裂因子的大小顺序表明：粉煤灰、矿渣能够提高混凝土的抗裂因子,而硅灰则降低了混凝土的抗裂因子。掺加纤维、减缩剂、以及减缩剂和膨胀剂复合使用能够提高混凝土的抗裂性能,特别是减缩剂和膨胀剂复合使用能够大幅度提高抗裂因子,与大小圆环、平板法等各种约束开裂试验结果具有很好的一致性。而使用膨胀剂在早期养护不充分的前提下,有降低抗裂因子的趋势。     

影响标准贯入（SPT）击数因素浅析

通过分析某涉外跨海大桥工程地质勘察中的标贯SPT击数差异问题,发现钻孔直径、钻探工艺、标贯头刃口尺寸和泥浆浓度的差异等显著影响砂性地层中的SPT击数。特别是小口径套管下到钻孔底部限制了土体的变形,进而影响了SPT测试结果;泥浆浓度过低将不足以将孔底残渣特别是颗粒较大的砂砾携带出钻孔等。这些因素的累计导致了两家勘察公司N值出现了较大的差异。文中对跨海大桥的勘察管理提出了一些建议,通过采取有效措施,使同一土层的N值基本一致,对加强勘察资料的可信度和实用性具有参考价值。     

静载锚固性能试验影响因素分析

结合铁路工程钢绞线一锚具组装件的静载锚固性能试验检测,对影响试验结果的各种因素进行了分析,并指出相应的解决措施。提出试验过程的有效控制是试验科学性和数据结果可靠性的有力保证。     

永磁同步发电机PWM整流系统初步研究

针对传统发电机整流系统谐波含量大,功率因数低的特点,为永磁同步发电机设计了一套PWM整流系统,通过电流前馈解耦控制,实现有功无功解耦,实现发电机侧单位功率因数运行。实验结果验证了该控制方案的可行性,可有效减少发电机电流谐波含量,并能在发电频率较大范围变动时仍能保持系统稳定运行。     

盾构施工筹划原则及影响因素分析

以北京地铁4号线11合同段(灵境胡同-新街口)四站三区间的盾构施工筹划为例,重点分析影响盾构施工筹划的因素;以方案比较的方法,介绍了确定三区间总体筹划方案的详细过程.     

线路客流预测分析与运营组织设计

从运营需要出发,提出客流预测的年限和内容;通过对客流量级的阐述,分析客流预测三级数据,确定运营的规模;根据OD(起讫点)客流分析来研究行车交路,做出满载率和拥挤度的评价;最终确定车辆编组与行车密度的合理组合,形成系统全面的技术方案,使客流预测更好地为运营组织服务.     

供应链企业在各种关系下的价格折扣方案设计

供应链企业间的关系管理是供应链管理的重点,而价格折扣是供应链企业间最常用的关系协调机制。文中用一个有一个供应商与多个经销商的供应链,假定了四种特殊关系,即：（1）横向（经销商之间）、纵向（与供应商）不合作;（2）横向不合作,纵向合作;（3）横向合作,纵向不合作;（4）横向合作,纵向合作。针对供应链企业之间的各种关系设计不同的价格折扣方案以满足供应链企业的利益最大化;对各种关系下的价格折扣方案进行比较,得到了不同关系下价格折扣率的取值范围。     

Predictive power of inspection outcomes for future shipping accidents – an empirical appraisal with special attention for human factor aspects

This paper investigates whether deficiencies detected during port state control (PSC) inspections have predictive power for future accident risk, in addition to other vessel-specific risk factors like ship type, age, size, flag, and owner. The empirical analysis links accidents to past inspection outcomes and is based on data from all around the globe of PSC regimes using harmonized deficiency codes. These codes are aggregated into eight groups related to human factor aspects like crew qualifications, working and living conditions, and fatigue and safety management. This information is integrated by principal components into a single overall deficiency index, which is related to future accident risk by means of logit models. The factor by which accident risk increases for vessels with above average compared to below average deficiency scores is about 6 for total loss, 2 for very serious, 1.5 for serious, and 1.3 for less-serious accidents. Relations between deficiency scores and accident risk are presented in graphical format. The results may be of interest to PSC authorities for targeting inspection areas, to maritime administrations for improving asset allocation based on prediction scenarios connected with vessel traffic data, and to maritime insurers for refining their premium strategies.