A discounted recursive logit model for dynamic gridlock network analysis

Emerging sensing technologies such as probe vehicles equipped with Global Positioning System (GPS) devices on board provide us real-time vehicle trajectories. They are helpful for the understanding of the cases that are significant but difficult to observe because of the infrequency, such as gridlock networks. On the premise of this type of emerging technology, this paper propose a sequential route choice model that describes route choice behavior, both in ordinary networks, where drivers acquire spatial knowledge of networks through their experiences, and in extraordinary networks, which are situations that drivers rarely experience, and applicable to real-time traffic simulations. In extraordinary networks, drivers do not have any experience or appropriate information. In such a context, drivers have little spatial knowledge of networks and choose routes based on dynamic decision making, which is sequential and somewhat forward-looking. In order to model these decision-making dynamics, we propose a discounted recursive logit model, which is a sequential route choice model with the discount factor of expected future utility. Through illustrative examples, we show that the discount factor reflects drivers’ decision-making dynamics, and myopic decisions can confound the network congestion level. We also estimate the parameters of the proposed model using a probe taxis’ trajectory data collected on March 4, 2011 and on March 11, 2011, when the Great East Japan Earthquake occurred in the Tokyo Metropolitan area. The results show that the discount factor has a lower value in gridlock networks than in ordinary networks.     

公路服务商业化经营与企业经营行为

综合经济学和交通工程学理论,以公路服务的经营特性、市场需求和市场细分为基础,研究了公路企业的经营目标、收费价格确定方法、收费定价策略与调价方法,进而分析和得到了公路企业的经营方法。实践证明,经营方法使得公路企业的收费经营行为更为科学,增加了收费收入;公共管制方法在合理考虑企业利益的同时,能够约束公路企业的追利行为,减少社会福利损失。这对公路企业经营收费公路和政府对公路企业经营行为的管制,具有指导意义。     

Making time count: Traveler activity engagement on urban transit

In practice, travel time is assigned a cost and treated as a disutility to be minimized. There is a growing body of research supporting the hypothesis that travel time has some value of its own, and the proliferation of information and communication technology (ICT) may be contributing to that value. Travelers’ attitudes are confounded with their mode choice, and as telecommunications mediate travel behavior, analysts must recognize the interaction between time use and customer satisfaction for appropriate travel demand management. To that end, this paper presents results from jointly estimated models of travelers’ latent satisfaction and on-board activity engagement using Chicago transit rider data gathered in April 2010. The simple questionnaire and small sample corroborate the findings of past research indicating travel attitudes and activity engagement have potential to influence travelers’ value of time, and many transit riders consider transit a better use of time and/or money than driving. The findings affirm the need for a more holistic understanding of value of time for travel demand management and infrastructure valuation. As time use has an influence on users’ valuation of the transit mode, offering opportunities to conduct certain leisure activities could improve the perceived value of travel time.     

Weather impact on containership routing in closed seas: A chance-constraint optimization approach

Weather conditions have a strong effect on the operation of vessels and unavoidably influence total time at sea and associated transportation costs. The velocity and direction of the wind in particular may considerably affect travel speed of vessels and therefore the reliability of scheduled maritime services. This paper considers weather effects in containership routing; a stochastic model is developed for determining optimal routes for a homogeneous fleet performing pick-ups and deliveries of containers between a hub and several spoke ports, while incorporating travel time uncertainties attributed to the weather. The problem is originally formulated as a chance-constrained variant of the vehicle routing problem with simultaneous pick-ups and deliveries and time constraints and solved using a genetic algorithm. The model is implemented to a network of island ports of the Aegean Sea. Results on the application of algorithm reveal that a small fleet is sufficient enough to serve network’s islands, under the influence of minor delays. A sensitivity analysis based on alternative scenarios in the problem’s parameters, leads to encouraging conclusions with respect to the efficiency and robustness of the algorithm.     

汽油机瞬态排放CO的符号时间序列统计量分析

介绍了符号时间序列分析中的直方图、Shannon熵和高阶矩等,结合排放的体积百分数,对TOYOTA2500汽油机瞬态排放中的CO进行了分析．在节气门匀速变化时和匀加速变化时,比较速度值不同时的瞬态排放质量．     

基于GIS的城市公交出行时间链研究

分析城市公交网络的各种空间实体数据和属性数据,建立了基于GIS的公交网络信息数据库。利用GIS空间分析与决策功能,分析研究乘客公交出行时间链,采用Logit反推模型,结合苏州市公交规划调查数据,回归计算出公交出行时间链各部分权重值。公交出行时间链的研究是公交网络配流及网络优化的理论基础,其权重值的分析计算具有重要的实用意义。     

Simultaneous modeling of individuals’ duration and expenditure decisions in out-of-home leisure activities

In this paper, we propose an activity model under time and budget constraints to simultaneously predict the allocation of time and money to out-of-home leisure activities. The proposed framework considers the activity episode level, given that the activity is scheduled. Thus, the model considers the decision of the quantities for duration and expenditure spent during the activity. We use a flexible utility function and show how the simultaneous equations can be estimated by using structural equations model (SEM) estimation techniques to handle the endogeneity problem of time and expenditure. The estimation results are based on a large national leisure diary data set collected in 2008 in the Netherlands, which provides detailed information about time and money spent as well as timing and location attributes of the activities. The analysis reveals that socio-demographics, travel party, timing and location variables influence the duration and expenditure of activity episodes. It shows that various socio-demographic groups display different preferences in terms of the time and money spent on activities. The results also indicate substitution relationships between spending more time and money for various activity categories. Thus it is concluded that the analysis provides useful results for a better understanding of combined time and money allocation decisions for leisure activities.     

The time slot allocation problem under uncertain capacity

This paper presents two stochastic programming models for the allocation of time slots over a network of airports. The proposed models address three key issues. First, they provide an optimization tool to allocate time slots, which takes several operational aspects and airline preferences into account; second, they execute the process on a network of airports; and third they explicitly include uncertainty. To the best of our knowledge, these are the first models for time slot allocation to consider both the stochastic nature of capacity reductions and the problem’s network structure. From a practical viewpoint, the proposed models provide important insights for the allocation of time slots. Specifically, they highlight the tradeoff between the schedule/request discrepancies, i.e., the time difference between allocated time slots and airline requests, and operational delays. Increasing schedule/request discrepancies enables a reduction in operational delays. Moreover, the models are computationally viable. A set of realistic test instances that consider the scheduling of four calendar days on different European airport networks has been solved within reasonable – for the application’s context – computation times. In one of our test instances, we were able to reduce the sum of schedule/request discrepancies and operational delays by up to 58%. This work provides slot coordinators with a valuable decision making tool, and it indicates that the proposed approach is very promising and may lead to relevant monetary savings for airlines and aircraft operators.     

The causal relationship between GDP and domestic air passenger traffic in Brazil

Abstract

This paper examines the causal relationship between economic growth and domestic air passenger transport in Brazil, using Granger's causality test. Total domestic passenger-kilometres are used as a proxy for air transport demand and gross domestic product as a proxy for economic growth. The test spans the period from 1966 to 2006. The results lead to the acceptance of the hypothesis that there is a unidirectional Granger causal relationship from economic growth to domestic air transport demand in Brazil, having a high elasticity in the short term.     

基于雷达和视觉技术的车辆跟踪窗口

针对基于视觉技术的运动检测鲁棒性差、计算量大的缺点,提出一种融合雷达与视觉信息建立车辆跟踪窗口的方法。采用动力学模型描述车辆运动,通过基于雷达量测的扩展卡尔曼滤波(EKF)估计,确定目标初始位置,然后根据灰度信息自适应调整跟踪窗口的中心位置及尺寸,快速而准确地建立起以目标形心为中心且适合目标大小的跟踪窗口,缩小了后续图像处理区域。三维场景仿真实验证明,该融合方法能快速有效地建立起目标的跟踪窗口。