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461.
This paper provides a two-step approach based on the stochastic differential equations (SDEs) to improve short-term prediction. In the first step of this framework, a Hull-White (HW) model is applied to obtain a baseline prediction model from previous days. Then, the extended Vasicek model (EV) is employed for modeling the difference between observations and baseline predictions (residuals) during an individual day. The parameters of this time-varying model are estimated at each sample using the residuals in a short duration of time before the time point of prediction; so it provides a real time prediction. The extracted model recovers the valuable local variation information during each day. The performance of our method in comparison with other methods improves significantly in terms of root mean squared error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE) and mean relative error (MRE) for real data from Tehran’s highways and the open-access PeMS database. We also demonstrate that the proposed model is appropriate for imputing the missing data in traffic dataset and it is more efficient than the probabilistic principal component analysis (PPCA) and k-Nearest neighbors (k-NN) methods. 相似文献
462.
Mobile communication instruments have made detecting traffic incidents possible by using floating traffic data. This paper studies the properties of traffic flow dynamics during incidents and proposes incident detection methods using floating data collected by probe vehicles equipped with on-board global positioning system (GPS) equipment. The proposed algorithms predict the time and location of traffic congestion caused by an incident. The detection rate and false rate of the models are examined using a traffic flow simulator, and the performance measures of the proposed methods are compared with those of previous methods. 相似文献
463.
The Rakha-Pasumarthy-Adjerid (RPA) car-following model has been demonstrated to successfully replicate empirical driver car-following behavior. However, the validity of this model for fuel consumption and emission (FC/EM) estimation has yet to be studied. This paper attempts to address this research need by analyzing the applicability of the model for FC/EM estimation and comparing its performance to other state-of-practice car-following models; namely, the Gipps, Fritzsche and Wiedemann models. Naturalistic empirical data are employed to generate ground truth car-following events. The model-generated second-by-second Vehicle Specific Power (VSP) distributions for each car-following event are then compared to the empirical distributions. The study demonstrates that the generation of realistic VSP distributions is critical in producing accurate FC/EM estimates and that the RPA model outperforms the other three models in producing realistic vehicle trajectory VSP distributions and robust FC/EM estimates. This study also reveals that the acceleration behavior within a car-following model is one of the major contributors to producing realistic VSP distributions. The study further demonstrates that the use of trip-aggregated results may produce erroneous conclusions given that second-by-second errors may cancel each other out, and that lower VSP distribution errors occasionally result in greater bias in FC/EM estimates given the large deviation of the distribution at high VSP levels. Finally, the results of the study demonstrate the validity of the INTEGRATION micro-simulator, given that it employs the RPA car-following model, in generating realistic VSP distributions, and thus in estimating fuel consumption and emission levels. 相似文献
464.
After having implemented numerous regulations, e.g., coercive policies on vehicle use and purchase, it is becoming increasingly difficult to find further potential to control vehicle emissions in Beijing, as the air quality is still poor. This research provides a different approach for policy-makers to reduce vehicle emissions by managing demand. We found that parents ferrying their children to and from school is an important but long-neglected contributor to traffic congestion and vehicle emissions. This phenomenon is very common in China because of the social culture. In this research, parallel tests during both the school season and the non-school season were adopted, and emissions in both seasons were calculated based on travel demand and emission models. The results revealed that emissions factors (in g/km) for criteria pollutants and CO2 increased by over 10% during rush hours during the school season due to traffic condition deterioration compared with non-school season. Daily HC, CO, NOx, PM and CO2 emissions from the passenger car fleet were 8.3%, 7.8%, 6.4%, 6.3% and 6.5% higher compared with those during the non-school season, respectively. These differences are greater than the total vehicular emission reduction by other control measures in 2014 in Beijing. For policy makers, providing safe and efficient ways to ferry children would be a useful and harmonious strategy for future vehicle emission control. 相似文献
465.
Traffic waves are phenomena that emerge when the vehicular density exceeds a critical threshold. Considering the presence of increasingly automated vehicles in the traffic stream, a number of research activities have focused on the influence of automated vehicles on the bulk traffic flow. In the present article, we demonstrate experimentally that intelligent control of an autonomous vehicle is able to dampen stop-and-go waves that can arise even in the absence of geometric or lane changing triggers. Precisely, our experiments on a circular track with more than 20 vehicles show that traffic waves emerge consistently, and that they can be dampened by controlling the velocity of a single vehicle in the flow. We compare metrics for velocity, braking events, and fuel economy across experiments. These experimental findings suggest a paradigm shift in traffic management: flow control will be possible via a few mobile actuators (less than 5%) long before a majority of vehicles have autonomous capabilities. 相似文献
466.
针对交通安全现状及国内外交通预警发展现状的分析,阐明建立交通事故预警系统的必要性。分析了基于人、车、路、环境四要素的道路交通事故的成因,根据交通事故预警系统设计原则和建立预警系统的目的,采用相关理论,选用合适的交通信息采集技术,建立了交通事故预警系统。该系统包括驾驶员预警子系统、车辆防撞预警子系统、车辆状况预警子系统、道路安全预警子系统和交通气象预警子系统。 相似文献
467.
航运市场运费套期保值方法探讨 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
分析研究了2种运费套期保值方法远期运价协议和运价指数期货合约,通过典型案例论证了租船人和船东都能利用这2种方法,锁定运费收入或支出,从而规避运价风险的目的;同时对这2种方法进行了分析比较,指出运价指数期货合约具有灵活性且安全的特点,但二者费用有差异,运价指数期货合约需要一定的保证金,实际费用等于经纪人的佣金(通常为0.3%)加上现金保证金的利息。 相似文献
468.
469.
水域交通危险度的模糊综合评判法 总被引:4,自引:0,他引:4
长期的事故统计数据,是交通环境、水域特征、航道特点、水文气象等各种因素的综合反映,而这些因素正是评判水域交通危险度的主要指标。而且,利用事故统计数据得到的评价结果也包含了操船者在这一水域的行为因素。为此,本文提出基于事故统计数据的水域交通危险度的多层次模糊综合评判法,并给出评判模型及评判实例。 相似文献
470.
This paper formulates a comprehensive methodology for analyzing, quantifying and identifying congestion characteristics based on speed distribution. Utilizing vehicle speed data, a mathematical approach is applied, in order to characterize roadway segments, in terms of travel reliability, congestion severity and duration. We argue that the Gaussian mixture model (GMM) and its parameter combination is the appropriate tool if we are to obtain quantitative congestion measures and rank roadway performance. A significant contribution of our approach is that it is based on assumptions regarding mixed components as well as speed distribution and can be applied to large databases. We test our framework on the greater Toronto and Hamilton area in Ontario, Canada, and conclude that congestion quantification through the application of the GMM can be successfully accomplished. Results indicate that speed patterns differ significantly between counties as well as days of the week. 相似文献