Short-Term Traffic Flow Forecasting for Freeway Incident-Induced Delay Estimation

Freeway incidents not only threaten travelers’ safety but also cause severe congestion. Incident-induced delay (IID) refers to the extra travel delay resulting from incidents on top of the recurrent congestion. Quantifying IID would help people better understand the real cost of incidents, maximize the benefit-cost ratio of investment on incident remedy actions, and develop active traffic management and integrated corridor management strategies. By combining a modified queuing diagram and short-term traffic flow forecasting techniques, this study proposes an approach to estimate the temporal IID for a roadway section, given that the incidents occurs between two traffic flow detectors. The approach separates IID from the total travel delay, estimates IID for each individual incident, and only takes volume as input for IID quantification, avoiding using speed data that are widely involved in previous algorithms yet are less available or prone to poor data quality. Therefore, this approach can be easily deployed to broader ranges where only volume data are available. To verify its estimation accuracy, this study captures two incident videos and extracts ground-truth IID data, which is rarely done by previous studies. The verification shows that the IID estimation errors of the proposed approach are within 6% for both cases. The approach has been implemented in a Web-based system, which enables quick, convenient, and reliable freeway IID estimation in the Puget Sound region in the state of Washington.     

Development and evaluation of a knowledge-based system for traffic congestion management and control

This paper describes a real-time knowledge-based system (KBS) for decision support to Traffic Operation Center personnel in the selection of integrated traffic control plans after the occurrence of non-recurring congestion, on freeway and arterial networks. The uniqueness of the system, called TCM, lies in its ability to cooperate with the operator, by handling different sources of input data and inferred knowledge, and providing an explanation of its reasoning process. A data fusion algorithm for the analysis of congestion allows to represent and interpret different types of data, with various levels of reliability and uncertainty, to provide a clear assessment of traffic conditions. An efficient algorithm for the selection of control plans determines alternative traffic control responses. These are proposed to an operator, along with an explanation of the reasoning process that led to their development and an estimation of their expected effect on traffic. The validation of the system, which is one of only few examples of validation of a KBS in transportation, demonstrates the validity of the approach. The evaluation results, in a simulated environment demonstrate the ability of TCM to reduce congestion, through the formulation of traffic diversion and control schemes.     

铁路建设项目经济评价信息系统的设计与应用

作者通过对铁路建设项目经济评价业务特点的分析,提出了利用计算机辅助经济评价的设计思想,并对运量预测、运营成本计算的算法作了详细讨论。     

对影响船舶航行安全的爆发性气旋的诊断分析

对2个典型的黄—东海入海气旋进行了诊断分析和数值实验，考查了个例在不同阶段各动力—热力因子的空间和水平分布特征以及水汽的水平和垂直输送的演变过程。结果表明，在冷季大气斜压背景场产生的强温度平流和由积云对流活动产生的大量凝结潜热释放等因子的共同作用下，入海气旋变成有利的特定空间结构、地面地转相对涡度急剧增加时，气旋便出现爆发性发展。爆发性发展时凝结潜热释放需要的大量水汽主要来源于气旋入海过程中，当地海—气相互作用过程所积累的水汽起主导作用，它通过影响后续的凝结潜热释放在一定程度上制约了入海气旋是否会发展为爆发性气旋。这对指导航海者深入认识气旋的爆发性发展具有重要意义。     

General stochastic user equilibrium traffic assignment problem with link capacity constraints

This paper addresses a general stochastic user equilibrium (SUE) traffic assignment problem with link capacity constraints. It first proposes a novel linearly constrained minimization model in terms of path flows and then shows that any of its local minimums satisfies the generalized SUE conditions. As the objective function of the proposed model involves path‐specific delay functions without explicit mathematical expressions, its Lagrangian dual formulation is analyzed. On the basis of the Lagrangian dual model, a convergent Lagrangian dual method with a predetermined step size sequence is developed. This solution method merely invokes a subroutine at each iteration to perform a conventional SUE traffic assignment excluding link capacity constraints. Finally, two numerical examples are used to illustrate the proposed model and solution method.     

船舶交通管理系统综合评价方法

采用系统工程的方法对船舶交通管理系统（ＶＴＳ）进行综合评价。在建立综合评价指标体系的基础上，对指标进行定量估价，并结合某港口航道ＶＴＳ方案，提出评价交管系统的方法。该方法可用于对交管方案作可行性分析，作为决策的依据，同时也可检验我国现已建成的各ＶＴＳ系统的适应程度及其效果大小。由于该方法考虑了影响ＶＴＳ的多方面因素，并综合各方面专家的意见，因此能较全面、客观地反映ＶＴＳ在某港口、航道中的适应程度，评价ＶＴＳ在实际使用中的效果，发现ＶＴＳ建设和使用中存在的问题。     

提速干线上编组站到解系统匹配与协调关系的研究

提速干线上编组站到解系统作业特点是到达列车流不均衡。运用排队论和随机过程理论,定量分析系统出现饱和状态的条件,即驼峰作业负荷达到临界负荷,输入流强度的增加,将导致到解系统在临界密集到达时间内进入饱和状态。临界负荷主要取决于到发线数量和驼峰作业时间变异系数。临界密集到达时间受到达流强度、变异系数、驼峰作业负荷等因素的影响。改善编组站到解系统匹配与协调关系的措施有:建立有效的生产作业保障机制,优化车流组织方案,增加编组站设备数量等等。     

粗糙集理论在铁路行车调度指挥系统中应用的研究

针对铁路行车调度指挥的智能知识表达与决策问题,给出行车调度指挥的列车相对优先度、列车相对正点度、列车相对旅程完成度、列车区间运行裕度、列车车站停车裕度、后继列车新增出发晚点、后继列车新增到达晚点等七个条件属性及运行次序一个决策属性。论述基于粗糙集理论的知识表达和粗糙集决策规则的提取过程。提出一种相应的行车指挥决策评价体系。证明列车运行次序决策属性,能完全作为列车运行调整的决策条件。     

与交通安全有关的几个心理问题

文章从广义交通安全心理学的角度,提出了需要加强研究的与交通安全密切相关的几个心理学问题。强调要进一步明确交通安全心理研究的重点,强化安全宣传教育的心理作用,研究驾驶员的认知心理。