逆向物流动态博弈分析模型

由于逆向物流的产生方与处理方之间存在对抗和合作并存的特性，因此逆向物流中存在博弈问题，现运用博弈理论和有关数学工具试图提出逆向物流的动态博弈分析模型，并据此推出校正的动态分析等式模型，最后得出校正的模型比前者更为有效，该模型为逆向物流双方采取合理策略，取得最优逆向物流效益提供参考。     

国内外铁路交通事故和事故征候管理研究

为促进我国铁路技术和安全管理与国际接轨,持续提升我国铁路的国际影响力,研究欧盟、美国、日本、澳大利亚等组织和国家铁路交通事故及事故征候管理模式,分析其机构设置、事故或事故征候的定义及等级划分、调查理念等方面的特点,提出改进我国铁路交通事故管理的建议.建议明确我国铁路交通事故征候的定义及范围划分标准,建立完善管理制度和事...     

区域性交通影响评价阈值的确定方法

新改扩建项目交通影响评价协调了交通需求与交通供给之间的关系,但单体建设项目的交通影响评价方法对于协调城市中某一区域的交通往往带来诸多利益主体平衡的困难,导致交通影响评价的效果不理想.为此,在城市快速发展时期,需要建立侧重于较大范围的区域性交通影响评价方法.针对区域性交通影响评价中范围阈值的确定,提出了标准区域类比法,研究了标准区域的确定方法和阈值确定的过程,并结合北京某区域实际,进行了区域确定方法的案例研究.     

大数据下天津VTS效益评估新方法

VTS效益评估是展示VTS服务效能最直接的手段之一,天津VTS中心在效益评估领域已做了大量工作,拥有海量的船舶动态数据.在大数据背景下,在之前效益评估实践的基础上利用新型的数据挖掘技术,为深入认识和利用海事系统数据提供了重要的研究思路和分析工具,并以VTS大数据为基础,重新梳理效益评估的项目种类,探索新的效益评估计算方...     

超速行驶违法行为的分析和对策

超速行驶是世界各国普遍存在的交通现象和交通管理难题。在我国,超速行驶引起的交通事故及造成的人员伤亡,历年来一直位居各种交通违法行为之前列,超速行驶造成的交通事故死亡人数曼是快速上升。本文针对超速行驶违法行为这一社会公害,阐述其造成的严重危害,分析产生的主要原因有设计、道路标识、限制速度和执法几个方面,并提出了相应的治理时策。     

我国交通安全预测与分析

针对目前我国严峻的交通安全问题,根据1983年以来交通系统人一车一路中相关数据按照多元统计方法建立了我国交通安全模型,揭示出交通安全中交通事故发生量、死亡人数同驾驶员人数、汽车保有量、公路里程、GDP之间的定量关系,分析了影响交通安全的其他因素,预测出未来我国交通事故先增加后减少以及交通事故死亡人数下降的趋势,并对预测结果进行了相应分析．     

交通拥挤的经济学分析

本文以交通拥挤问题为研究对象,用微观经济学的方法分析其产生的原因、现有的解决方案,并以上海为例分析了适合我国国情的最优策略之一--"公交优先"系统的经济学意义.     

公交网络最优路径求解算法

求解公交网络最优路径是进行公共交通系统规划的一项关键技术.通过对多种现有算法的分析,利用公交换乘矩阵性质,本文提出了一种求解公交网络最优路径的标准算法.新算法考虑了公交换乘次数、换乘点选择以及出行总成本对求解最优路径的综合影响.通过建立换乘步行时间矩阵,并将过去求解最小换乘次数的换乘矩阵乘法运算变为相应的换乘步行时间矩阵和公交出行时间矩阵的加法运算,得到新算法.新算法可顺利实现在单一OD对、单起点多终点以及任意节点间求解最优路径的转化.文中给出了新算法的详细求解步骤,而且通过一个算例对新算法的有效性进行了验证.     

Pedestrian traffic management of boarding and alighting in metro stations

The objective of this work is to determine, by means of simulation and experiments, the effect of pedestrian traffic management in the boarding and alighting time of passengers at metro stations. Studies were made by means of a pedestrian traffic microsimulator (LEGION Studio) and experiments at the Human Dynamic Laboratory (HDL) of Universidad de los Andes in Santiago de Chile, to obtain criteria for the pedestrian traffic management on the platform and doors of metro cars. The methodology consists of building a boarding/alighting hall of a metro car and the relevant portion of the platform in front of the hall. The simulation scenarios included the location of the vertical handrail in the hall of the car, delimitation of a keep out zone in front of the doors and the use of differentiated doors for boarding and alighting. The results of the simulation and laboratory experiments are expressed in Pedestrian Level of Service (LOS), Passenger Service Time (PST), passenger density on the vehicle and platform, and passenger dissatisfaction. Both, the simulation results and laboratory experiments allow us to give some recommendations for the pedestrian traffic management in metro systems.     

How much should gasoline be taxed when electric vehicles conquer the market? An analysis of the mismatch between efficient and existing gasoline taxes under emerging electric mobility

The taxation of gasoline is characterized by large variability across countries and recent research has analyzed existing gasoline tax levels from an economic efficiency point of view focusing on conventional internal combustion engine vehicles. Most studies find that existing fuel tax rates do not coincide with economically efficient levels. As long as policymakers do not take action to reduce the resulting efficiency gap, there will be an ongoing welfare loss to the economy. However, the composition of passenger car fleets will probably be subject to fundamental changes in the (near) future due to the emergence of electric mobility. This raises the question of whether the mismatch between current and efficient fuel taxation will persist, shrink, or even exacerbate under emerging electric mobility. This paper aims at answering this question by determining the structure and level of optimal gasoline taxes in the presence of electric vehicles (EVs). First, the optimal (nationwide) gasoline tax is analytically derived employing a general equilibrium approach. It is shown that differences in traffic related marginal external costs among fuel powered cars and EVs affect the corrective Pigouvian component of the optimal gasoline tax while a differential tax treatment influences the fiscal rational of the tax. Second, the model is applied to Germany using differentiated data on e.g. external costs and behavioral responses. Under a wide range of scenarios, the present analyses indicate a strong relationship between optimal gasoline taxes and electric mobility, calling for a downward adjustment of efficient gasoline taxes. The effect is mainly driven by financial incentives for purchasing and using EVs. Since fuel is likely to be undertaxed in many countries, the emergence of electric mobility will therefore close the gap between gasoline taxes in place and economically efficient taxes. On the other side, it will increase the efficiency gap in those countries where gasoline is overtaxed. This also has important implications for policy concerned with environmental objectives. Pushing electric mobility seriously and at the same time taxing gasoline efficiently could actually prevent sufficient CO₂ emission savings. However, at least in the case of Germany, even a downward adjusted optimal gasoline tax under electric mobility is likely to be higher than the current (non-optimal) tax.