我国铁路旅客列车运营速度变化历程

回顾了我国铁路旅客列车运营速度从低速到高速的速度变化历程;介绍了为提高旅客列车运营速度,我国铁路部门所开展的一系列研究、试验、运营等工作情况;对部分客车和动车组的技术特点进行了阐述。     

Competing risk mixture model and text analysis for sequential incident duration prediction

Predicting the duration of traffic incidents sequentially during the incident clearance period is helpful in deploying efficient measures and minimizing traffic congestion related to such incidents. This study proposes a competing risk mixture hazard-based model to analyze the effect of various factors on traffic incident duration and predict the duration sequentially. First, topic modeling, a text analysis technique, is used to process the textual features of the traffic incident to extract time-dependent topics. Given four specific clearance methods and the uncertainty of these methods when used during traffic incidents, the proposed mixture model uses the multinomial logistic model and parametric hazard-based model to assess the influence of covariates on the probability of clearance methods and on the duration of the incident. Subsequently, the performance of estimated mixture model in sequentially predicting the incident duration is compared with that of the non-mixture model. The prediction results show that the presented mixture model outperforms the non-mixture model.     

Predicting travel time reliability using mobile phone GPS data

Estimates of road speeds have become commonplace and central to route planning, but few systems in production provide information about the reliability of the prediction. Probabilistic forecasts of travel time capture reliability and can be used for risk-averse routing, for reporting travel time reliability to a user, or as a component of fleet vehicle decision-support systems. Many of these uses (such as those for mapping services like Bing or Google Maps) require predictions for routes in the road network, at arbitrary times; the highest-volume source of data for this purpose is GPS data from mobile phones. We introduce a method (TRIP) to predict the probability distribution of travel time on an arbitrary route in a road network at an arbitrary time, using GPS data from mobile phones or other probe vehicles. TRIP captures weekly cycles in congestion levels, gives informed predictions for parts of the road network with little data, and is computationally efficient, even for very large road networks and datasets. We apply TRIP to predict travel time on the road network of the Seattle metropolitan region, based on large volumes of GPS data from Windows phones. TRIP provides improved interval predictions (forecast ranges for travel time) relative to Microsoft’s engine for travel time prediction as used in Bing Maps. It also provides deterministic predictions that are as accurate as Bing Maps predictions, despite using fewer explanatory variables, and differing from the observed travel times by only 10.1% on average over 35,190 test trips. To our knowledge TRIP is the first method to provide accurate predictions of travel time reliability for complete, large-scale road networks.     

Optimisation of dynamic motorway traffic via a parsimonious and decentralised approach

This paper presents an optimisation framework for motorway management via ramp metering and variable speed limit. We start with presenting a centralised global optimal control problem aiming to minimise the total travel delay in a motorway system. Given the centralised global optimal control solutions, we propose a set of decentralised ramp metering and speed control strategies which operate on a novel parsimonious dynamic platform without needing an underlying traffic model. The control strategies are applied to a case on UK M25 motorway. The results show that the proposed set of decentralised control is able to deliver a performance that is close to the global optimal ones with significantly less computational and implementation effort. This study provides new insights to motorway management.     

200km／h动力分散型电动车组辅助电源改进的探讨

对我国最近试制成功的200km／h动力分散型电动车组辅助电源负载进行了分析与评论，建议取消辅助变流器，包括空调器在内的辅助电动机采用单相电动机，直接从主变压器辅助绕组取电；110V直流电源也是经整流器得到。这样，既可以降低成本，又可以减轻电动车组重量。     

挤密桩施工装备的研制与展望

既有铁路路基挤密桩加固技术,在广深铁路路基加固工程实施后,取得良好效果。但国内外目前尚未有保证该技术全面推广的工艺装备。2002年挤密桩施工装备研制成功,填补了国内这方面的空白。该套设备包括钻孔机、夯实机和上下道装置,经在京山、京秦线试用,效果良好。本文对挤密桩施工技术基本工艺原理做了简要介绍,就已研制成功的挤密桩施工装备的主要技术参数、结构特点、解决的关键技术、现场试用效果进行了全面阐述,对其发展方向和良好的应用前景做了分析和预测。     

提速线路轨道管理及维修

本文以京哈干线长春工务段管辖的434km既有线提速为例,对制约既有线提速的主要因素曲线和道岔等线路条件进行了重点剖析和论述,并科学合理地提出了改造方案。同时,在提速后的轨道强化上,以及管理和提高线路维修水平上,都采取了切实可行的有效措施。     

基于DSP的舰船直流电机弱磁调速系统研制

文章介绍了基于TMS320LF2407的船用直流电机转速稳定系统,实现了对直流电机运行的有效控制。为了提高电机的转速稳定性和安全可靠性,所设计的控制系统具有软启动、最小弱磁限制、转速闭环PI调节、系统工作异常保护等功能,取得良好的控制效果。     

基于代理的城市交通信息网格服务系统

城市交通信息服务作为智能交通系统的重要组成部分，其发展大多处于分散重复的建设阶段。本文在分析了网格技术与代理技术各自的优势基础上，提出了基于代理的城市交通信息网格服务系统，并给出了结构模型。通过代理技术和网格技术的结合，整合现有资源提高城市交通信息的服务效率。     

关于建立宁波液化品自由港的探讨

宁波港是世界著名的深水良港,自然条件得天独厚。宁波液化品自由港位于中国的炼化产业带,区位优势明显,硬件设施先进,管理规范,是国内吞吐能力最大的液化品专业港。由于缺乏良好的关税环境,宁波液化品港在与韩、日港口的竞争中处于劣势。鉴此,就建立宁波液化品自由港的意义、条件和发展进行了探讨,以期为建立宁波液化品自由港,为我国液化品运输的发展和我国炼化行业的降本增效提供参考。