Transport Demand Management in Turkey: A Genetic Algorithm Approach

Abstract

This article proposes new models for estimating transport demand using a genetic algorithm (GA) approach. Based on population, gross national product and number of vehicles, four forms of the genetic algorithm transport planning (GATP) model are developed – one exponential and the others taking quadratic forms – and applied to Turkey. The best fit models in terms of minimum total average relative errors in the test period are selected for future estimation. Demand management strategies are proposed based on three scenarios: restricting private car use, restricting truck use and the simultaneous management of private car use and goods movement. Results show that the GATP model may be used to estimate transport demand in terms of passenger-kilometers traveled (pass-km), vehicle-kilometers traveled (veh-km) and ton-kilometers completed (ton-km). Results also show that the third scenario – simultaneous restrictions on private car use and goods movement – could reduce total veh-km by about 35% by 2025 in this study of Turkish rural roads.     

国外城市交通政策回顾与我国城市交通的阶段性特征分析

近年来,我国的国家层面与部分发展较快的城市较为重视交通政策的规划、设计与研究,而中国的城市交通发展也处于一个敏感而关键的历史时期。论文对二战以后英国、美国、日本(东京)的城市交通政策的背景、导向、具体措施以及相关评价进行了回顾,并将其50年左右的发展分解为自由增长期、矛盾显露期、协调渐进期与优化整合期4个阶段。最后分析了我国所处的发展阶段,并认为部分发展较快城市所面临的问题与交通政策的规划设计正呈现出"叠合"式的特征。     

基于最大相关准则图像分割的结构化道路路径识别和跟踪算法

为提高基于视觉导航的智能车辆对结构化道路车道标识线的识别和跟踪精度,同时消除车流、阴影和光照不均匀等不利因素的影响,提出一种基于最大相关准则的图像分割算法及基于感兴趣区域的车道标识线跟踪算法:首先,对图像进行滤波和光线补偿等前期处理,采用最大相关准则的图像分割算法对道路图像进行阈值分割;然后,根据车道的结构特征及先验知识提取车道标识线的特征点,并运用最小二乘法对特征点拟合,得到车道模型的参数;最后,通过建立感兴趣区域(ROI)的方法实现对车道标识线的准确跟踪。试验结果表明,该算法具有很好的准确性、实时性和鲁棒性。     

公交停靠站点车辆延误研究

针对公交停靠站点的车辆延误机理进行了分析,根据停靠站点的停车次数进行分类,确定出公交停靠站点车辆延误的计算公式,并通过实例进行验证,结果与实际情况基本相符合。     

Transport models, philosophy and language

The aim of this paper is to encourage debate about the nature of transport modelling. It does so firstly by considering the underlying philosophies of science (apparently) adopted by transport modellers, over a period of more than 50 years, from the 1950s until the present day. The conclusion is that a new philosophy of science needs to be developed, which is more in tune with how transport modelling is actually carried out (as opposed to how early transport modellers thought it ought to be carried out). It is recommended that such a new philosophy perceives transport modelling as a linguistic activity within the overall context of transport planning, which is in turn considered as a communication process. The paper outlines three main approaches that could be taken in this respect, analysing transport models from metaphorical, narrative and aesthetic perspectives. Conclusions are drawn upon the possible future research directions that might follow from the analysis provided in the paper, emphasising the importance of bringing formal philosophical thinking into transport modelling research and practice.

The potential demand for a urban freight consolidation centre

This paper reports the results of a stated-preference study aimed at investigating how transport decisions are made by receivers or by transport operators about the potential use of an urban freight consolidation centre in the city of Fano, Italy. Because there are no revealed preference data, a stated-choice methodology is used. The stated-choice experiments present two alternatives—one using a private vehicle subject to various traffic regulations and one using the urban freight consolidation centre with varying cost and efficiency levels. Conventional discrete choice data modelling shows that the potential demand is influenced mainly by the distance of the parking bay from the shop, by access permit cost, by the service cost of the urban freight consolidation centre, and by the delay in delivery time. Simulations are then performed to assess how the potential demand is affected by various incentives and regulations affecting urban goods distribution.

满足高职生学习需求的英语教学新模式:实用+创新

如何将学生需求转化为学生学习英语的动力成为高职英语教师研究的课题之一。实用+创新教学法是从高职生的实际需要出发,根据高职生英语学习动机强度与学生需求变化的关系研究出的满足高职生学习需求的英语教学新模式。     

Labour market effects in assessing the costs and benefits of road pricing

Traffic congestion and the policies used to combat it have been studied extensively. One area which has received less attention is the secondary impacts of such policies. This paper uses a micro-simulation framework to study the effect on labour markets of road pricing. The key benefit of our chosen methodology is that it allows a simultaneous consideration of both commuting and migration decisions. We show that while welfare gains can be achieved through optimal charging, this may come at the price of decreased integration. This may manifest through either greater centralisation tendencies in population, or through unemployment disparities between regions.     

A multi-layer scenario analysis for sustainable international transport

This article considers the development of the international transport sector based on four globalization scenarios. These four images of the future transportation market are constructed at three different levels (global, European and Dutch). The possible consequences of these scenarios are mapped out not only by key aspects such as modal split and spatial organization but also by providing empirical insights into expected transport flows for both passenger and freight transport in 2020 based on data from 1995.     

公交可达性水平分析方法在城市静态交通规划中的应用

近年来我国大城市机动车保有量增长迅速,城市交通面临严峻考验,动静态交通之问的矛盾以及“停车难”等问题日益突出,但一直以来静态交通规划均以满足停车需求为主,缺乏考虑与公共交通等方面的联系.本文对公交可达性水平分析方法在城市静态交通规划中的应用进行了具体介绍,该方法将静态交通和动态交通、公共交通和个体交通、交通设施和交通管...