城市干路拥堵社会经济评价方法

为评估城市干路交通拥堵导致的经济、环境成本和公众利益损失及其对区域架构的影响,设计了一种定量与定性相结合的分析方法.给出了因交通拥堵产生的八类损失,包括:出行时间损失、燃油损失及车辆损耗、交通事故损失、噪声损失及尾气排放增加的损失等五类从经济或环境、技术角度可量化的损失,以及交通拥堵导致机构搬迁对当地经济的影响、危险品...     

Travel time variability and airport accessibility

We analyze the cost of access travel time variability for air travelers. Reliable access to airports is important since the cost of missing a flight is likely to be high. First, the determinants of the preferred arrival times at airports are analyzed. Second, the willingness to pay (WTP) for reductions in access travel time, early and late arrival time at the airport, and the probability to miss a flight are estimated, using a stated choice experiment. The results indicate that the WTPs are relatively high. Third, a model is developed to calculate the cost of variable travel times for representative air travelers going by car, taking into account travel time cost, scheduling cost and the cost of missing a flight using empirical travel time data. In this model, the value of reliability for air travelers is derived taking “anticipating departure time choice” into account, meaning that travelers determine their departure time from home optimally. Results of the numerical exercise show that the cost of access travel time variability for business travelers are between 0% and 30% of total access travel cost, and for non-business travelers between 0% and 25%. These numbers depend strongly on the time of the day.     

区域高等级公路网交通状态识别与分析模型研究

为了在区域内分析高等级路网交通状态,建立了一种区域高等级路网交通状态分析模型。首先分析路网结构并对路段的交通状态进行识别分类,建立在实时交通状态下的区域高等级路网模型;然后基于路网模型运用系统结构分析法建立路网交通状态分析模型,根据不同交通状态分析需求得到不同的交通状态可达矩阵,并对可达矩阵分层分析。通过实例表明：该模型能够有效地判别路网中节点的可达性和连通性,描述路网的交通状态时空变化规律,若通过及时发布信息,出行者可根据不同的信息需求来选择最优路径,避免大范围拥挤,从而提高整个路网的运行效率。     

智能交通系统研发历程与动态述评

对智能交通系统（ITS）进行了整体描述,回顾了美国、日本和欧洲的ITS发展历程,并结合其研发动态对国外ITS研发特点做出评述。介绍了国外ITS未来的建设目标,指出发达国家已经不是将ITS仅仅看成解决交通拥堵的工具,而是将其看作解决能源和环境问题的可选项,ITS的研发应注意与能源、出行权利以及交通安全的关系。最后,指出ITS发展需要实现真正的学科交叉和交融,并讨论了国内ITS未来发展的研究方向：注重信息技术应用条件下交通系统的描述方法以及交通系统的状态表达和人的行为研究。