Value of travel time reliability: A review of current evidence

Travel time reliability is a fundamental factor in travel behavior. It represents the temporal uncertainty experienced by travelers in their movement between any two nodes in a network. The importance of the time reliability depends on the penalties incurred by the travelers. In road networks, travelers consider the existence of a trip travel time uncertainty in different choice situations (departure time, route, mode, and others). In this paper, a systematic review of the current state of research in travel time reliability, and more explicitly in the value of travel time reliability is presented. Moreover, a meta-analysis is performed in order to determine the reasons behind the discrepancy among the reliability estimates.     

Prediction of travel time variability for cost-benefit analysis

Unreliable travel times cause substantial costs to travelers. Nevertheless, they are often not taken into account in cost-benefit analyses (CBA), or only in very rough ways. This paper aims at providing simple rules to predict variability, based on travel time data from Dutch highways. Two different concepts of travel time variability are used, which differ in their assumptions on information availability to drivers. The first measure is based on the assumption that, for a given road link and given time of day, the expected travel time is constant across all working days (rough information: RI). In the second case, expected travel times are assumed to reflect day-specific factors such as weather conditions or weekdays (fine information: FI). For both definitions of variability, we find that the mean travel time is a good predictor. On average, longer delays are associated with higher variability. However, the derivative of variability with respect to delays is decreasing in delays. It can be shown that this result relates to differences in the relative shares of observed traffic ‘regimes’ (free-flow, congested, hyper-congested) in the mean delay. For most CBAs, no information on the relative shares of the traffic regimes is available. A non-linear model based on mean travel times can then be used as an approximation.     

The accuracy of proxy responses in a stated choice setting: A re-examination and some controversial conclusions

Data is typically gathered from an individual respondent who represents the group or the household. This individual is often identified as the “primary decision maker” and is asked to provide responses as a proxy for the group given that the cost of interviewing each member individually is impractical and/or expensive. The collection of joint preferences is rarely undertaken, with the use of proxy responses not uncommon in travel behaviour research. Under such a framework, there exists an assumption that the primary decision maker has perfect knowledge of other group member preferences, and bargaining behaviour, and is able to synthesise this information when providing a response on their behalf. The validity of such an assumption however remains an open question, with recent research calling the reliability of proxy responses into account (Bateman and Munro, 2009). In this paper, using three models estimated in willingness to pay space, we examine the accuracy of proxy responses in a stated choice experiment. We find that there is overlap between a proxy response and the own preferences of the individual providing the proxy choice, but while the proxy responses fail to represent the full preference heterogeneity that exists in the actual choices made by individuals, the proxy responses in aggregate provide a suitable replacement for actual data, subject to a number of caveats.     

四面六边透水框架自动同步抛投装置与工艺

针对四面六边透水框架抛投效率低、成本高、准确度低、存在安全隐患等问题,建立四面六边透水框架抛投漂移距离的数学模型,得出抛投高度、水深、水流速度、透水框架阻水面积等参数对漂移距离的影响规律。提出一种大框架、多转轴的空中自动同步脱钩抛投吊具,增加每次抛投透水框架的数量,并采用GPS引导抛投船舶精准定位,对抛投作业过程进行实时控制。结果表明,此种抛投装置可提高透水框架抛投的准确性,且提高施工效率。     

卵石层小净距隧道关键参数研究

针对卵石地层小净距隧道围岩整体性与稳定性差、施工中易坍塌、围岩相互扰动大的问题,通过FLAC 3D数值模拟和现场监测,对卵石层小净距隧道左右洞合理净距和先后行洞掌子面安全纵向间距进行了研究。得到如下结论： 1）当净距不大于6 m时,隧道地表沉降槽呈“V形”,沉降最大点位于中夹岩顶部;随着净距大于6 m,隧道拱顶部位地表沉降逐渐超过中夹岩顶部,地表沉降槽呈 “W形”。2）当2洞间净距不大于6 m（约1倍洞跨）时,2洞开挖后围岩压力叠加效应明显,极易发生失稳;当隧道净距大于18 m时,可按分离式隧道进行设计; 3）随着先后行洞间掌子面纵向距离的增加,后行洞施工对先行洞的影响逐渐减少,当纵向间距达到30 m（4.6倍洞跨）时,这种影响基本可以不予考虑。     

Time taken for residents to adopt a new public transport service: examining heterogeneity through duration modelling

When a new public transport service is introduced it would be valuable for public authorities, financing organisations and transport operators to know how long it will take for people to start to use the service and what factors influence this. This paper presents results from research analysing the time taken for residents living close to a new guided bus service to start to use (or adopt) the service. Data was obtained from a sample of residents on whether they used the new service and the number of weeks after the service was introduced before they first used it. Duration modelling has been used to analyse how the likelihood of starting to use the new service changes over time (after the introduction of the service) and to examine what factors influence this. It is found that residents who have not used the new service are increasingly unlikely to use it as time passes. Those residents gaining greater accessibility benefits from the new service are found to be quicker to use the service, although the size of this effect is modest compared to that of other between-resident differences. Allowance for the possibility that there existed a proportion of the sample that would never use the new service was tested using a split population model (SPD) model. The SPD model indicates that 36% of residents will never use the new service and is informative in differentiating factors that influence whether Route 20 is used and when it is used.

Identifying optimal data aggregation interval sizes for link and corridor travel time estimation and forecasting

With the recent increase in the deployment of ITS technologies in urban areas throughout the world, traffic management centers have the ability to obtain and archive large amounts of data on the traffic system. These data can be used to estimate current conditions and predict future conditions on the roadway network. A general solution methodology for identifying the optimal aggregation interval sizes for four scenarios is proposed in this article: (1) link travel time estimation, (2) corridor/route travel time estimation, (3) link travel time forecasting, and (4) corridor/route travel time forecasting. The methodology explicitly considers traffic dynamics and frequency of observations. A formulation based on mean square error (MSE) is developed for each of the scenarios and interpreted from a traffic flow perspective. The methodology for estimating the optimal aggregation size is based on (1) the tradeoff between the estimated mean square error of prediction and the variance of the predictor, (2) the differences between estimation and forecasting, and (3) the direct consideration of the correlation between link travel time for corridor/route estimation and forecasting. The proposed methods are demonstrated using travel time data from Houston, Texas, that were collected as part of the automatic vehicle identification (AVI) system of the Houston Transtar system. It was found that the optimal aggregation size is a function of the application and traffic condition.

主动声自导鱼雷极限射距主要影响因素仿真研究

在鱼雷攻击中适宜的射距是确保鱼雷命中目标的关键之一,在使用鱼雷时必须确保所采用的射距在极限射距之内,因此在射击条件已知的前提下,要确定极限射距并且熟悉影响其值大小的主要因素及各因素的影响规律。依据主动声自导鱼雷的射击模型,建立起极限射距的表达式,进而得出影响其值大小的主要因素。通过仿真对各影响因素进行定量研究,找出它们对极限射距的影响规律。此研究可为指挥员在作战使用时提供必要的参考,以期充分灵活地利用研究成果,提高主动声自导鱼雷的命中概率。     

空气层结对港口细煤粉污染扩散的影响分析

通过分析空气层结对港口细煤粉扩散的影响,得出离源0.5 km处稳定层结、中性层结及不稳定层结3种层结条件下污染物的浓度峰值分别为1.3 mg/m',0.27 mg/m'和0.02 mgW,同时得出5.5 m/s,7 m/s两种风速条件下的污染物浓度峰值.结果表明,湍流处于不稳定层结时,浓度分布峰值相对较小;随着层结逐渐...     

信号交叉口行车风险场建立及车辆通行行为优化

随着汽车逐步向智能化、网联化发展,智能网联车辆逐步进入实际应用阶段。进行智能网联车辆的通行行为优化,对提升驾驶安全性和行车效率,避免事故发生和交通拥堵至关重要。车辆在通过交叉口时将受到很多环境及运动因素的影响,而现有的通行优化模型难以准确表达各类因素共同作用下的行驶环境。为此,基于风险场理论建立由环境场和运动场组成的信号交叉口行车风险场,表征信号交叉口中每点的实时行车风险程度,从而引导车辆驶向风险值低点,并提供下一步长的位移及速度指引,实现车辆的动态轨迹优化及速度控制。典型场景下的仿真结果表明：在优化模型的控制下单车的信号交叉口通行效率明显提升,其中直行方向车辆单车平均通行效率提升最高,平均提升6.35%,通过对交叉口面积内所有车辆进行通行行为优化,交叉口通行效率提升了9.3%,这表明所建模型可以准确表达交叉口行车环境并优化车辆通行行为。研究结论可应用于自动驾驶车辆的交叉口通行控制,并为网联环境下的行车环境表达和安全驾驶控制提供模型基础。