Value of travel time reliability: A review of current evidence

Travel time reliability is a fundamental factor in travel behavior. It represents the temporal uncertainty experienced by travelers in their movement between any two nodes in a network. The importance of the time reliability depends on the penalties incurred by the travelers. In road networks, travelers consider the existence of a trip travel time uncertainty in different choice situations (departure time, route, mode, and others). In this paper, a systematic review of the current state of research in travel time reliability, and more explicitly in the value of travel time reliability is presented. Moreover, a meta-analysis is performed in order to determine the reasons behind the discrepancy among the reliability estimates.     

Prediction of travel time variability for cost-benefit analysis

Unreliable travel times cause substantial costs to travelers. Nevertheless, they are often not taken into account in cost-benefit analyses (CBA), or only in very rough ways. This paper aims at providing simple rules to predict variability, based on travel time data from Dutch highways. Two different concepts of travel time variability are used, which differ in their assumptions on information availability to drivers. The first measure is based on the assumption that, for a given road link and given time of day, the expected travel time is constant across all working days (rough information: RI). In the second case, expected travel times are assumed to reflect day-specific factors such as weather conditions or weekdays (fine information: FI). For both definitions of variability, we find that the mean travel time is a good predictor. On average, longer delays are associated with higher variability. However, the derivative of variability with respect to delays is decreasing in delays. It can be shown that this result relates to differences in the relative shares of observed traffic ‘regimes’ (free-flow, congested, hyper-congested) in the mean delay. For most CBAs, no information on the relative shares of the traffic regimes is available. A non-linear model based on mean travel times can then be used as an approximation.     

The accuracy of proxy responses in a stated choice setting: A re-examination and some controversial conclusions

Data is typically gathered from an individual respondent who represents the group or the household. This individual is often identified as the “primary decision maker” and is asked to provide responses as a proxy for the group given that the cost of interviewing each member individually is impractical and/or expensive. The collection of joint preferences is rarely undertaken, with the use of proxy responses not uncommon in travel behaviour research. Under such a framework, there exists an assumption that the primary decision maker has perfect knowledge of other group member preferences, and bargaining behaviour, and is able to synthesise this information when providing a response on their behalf. The validity of such an assumption however remains an open question, with recent research calling the reliability of proxy responses into account (Bateman and Munro, 2009). In this paper, using three models estimated in willingness to pay space, we examine the accuracy of proxy responses in a stated choice experiment. We find that there is overlap between a proxy response and the own preferences of the individual providing the proxy choice, but while the proxy responses fail to represent the full preference heterogeneity that exists in the actual choices made by individuals, the proxy responses in aggregate provide a suitable replacement for actual data, subject to a number of caveats.     

交通土建类工程造价专业工学结合人才培养模式研究

文章介绍了广西交通职业技术学院交通土建类工程造价专业工学结合人才培养模式的实践现状,分析了开展工学结合人才培养模式中出现的问题,提出了工学结合人才培养模式有效运行的措施。     

养护施工总承包模式下业主与承包商的博弈分析

文章以博弈论为理论基础,分析了养护施工总承包模式下业主与总承包商的博弈关系,提出了引导双方采用合理的策略以获得最大利益及保证工程产品达到较高质量水平的博弈对策,为养护施工总承包工程的管理和施工提供方法借鉴。     

基于船舶驾控测试系统的嵌入式车钟系统设计

针对船舶驾控设备类型多样的特点,提出一种基于船舶驾控测试系统的嵌入式车钟系统,对系统硬件组态进行布局,并结合软件,通过改变拨码盘状态,实现硬件和通信两种作业模式。该系统完成人员安全训练和设备开发功能,具有较高的应用价值。     

船舶混合动力技术发展趋势分析

通过近年发布的《国际海事组织海运温室气体减排初步战略》等相关减排措施,提出船舶混合动力技术作为优选解决方式。介绍该技术发展背景,阐述其定义、架构及国内外发展应用现状,分析油电混合动力技术、气电混合动力技术的特点,对船舶混合动力技术发展趋势及应用前景进行展望,经调查研究,船舶混合动力推进系统具有操纵性好、效率高及特定工况排放低等特性,减排优势明显。     

垂直水幕作用下扩建地下水封油库布局方式研究

为研究垂直水幕对扩建地下水封油库布局方式的影响,以某大型地下水封洞库分期建设工程为依托,采用有限元数值模拟方法,对有、无垂直水幕条件下扩建洞库的布局方式进行研究。研究结果表明： 1）当两期洞库间距较小时,在两期洞库之间设置垂直水幕可有效削弱拟建洞库对已建洞库水封可靠性的影响,随两期洞库间距的增加,垂直水幕的影响性逐渐减弱; 2）拟建洞库轴线方向对水封可靠性的影响受地形等条件的影响较大,在两期洞库之间设置垂直水幕对水封可靠性的影响较小; 3）随拟建洞库埋深的增加,拟建洞库的水封可靠性逐渐增强,已建洞库的水封可靠性却呈逐步减小趋势,在两期洞库之间设置垂直水幕可有效减小埋深对两期洞库水封可靠性的影响。     

Time taken for residents to adopt a new public transport service: examining heterogeneity through duration modelling

When a new public transport service is introduced it would be valuable for public authorities, financing organisations and transport operators to know how long it will take for people to start to use the service and what factors influence this. This paper presents results from research analysing the time taken for residents living close to a new guided bus service to start to use (or adopt) the service. Data was obtained from a sample of residents on whether they used the new service and the number of weeks after the service was introduced before they first used it. Duration modelling has been used to analyse how the likelihood of starting to use the new service changes over time (after the introduction of the service) and to examine what factors influence this. It is found that residents who have not used the new service are increasingly unlikely to use it as time passes. Those residents gaining greater accessibility benefits from the new service are found to be quicker to use the service, although the size of this effect is modest compared to that of other between-resident differences. Allowance for the possibility that there existed a proportion of the sample that would never use the new service was tested using a split population model (SPD) model. The SPD model indicates that 36% of residents will never use the new service and is informative in differentiating factors that influence whether Route 20 is used and when it is used.

Identifying optimal data aggregation interval sizes for link and corridor travel time estimation and forecasting

With the recent increase in the deployment of ITS technologies in urban areas throughout the world, traffic management centers have the ability to obtain and archive large amounts of data on the traffic system. These data can be used to estimate current conditions and predict future conditions on the roadway network. A general solution methodology for identifying the optimal aggregation interval sizes for four scenarios is proposed in this article: (1) link travel time estimation, (2) corridor/route travel time estimation, (3) link travel time forecasting, and (4) corridor/route travel time forecasting. The methodology explicitly considers traffic dynamics and frequency of observations. A formulation based on mean square error (MSE) is developed for each of the scenarios and interpreted from a traffic flow perspective. The methodology for estimating the optimal aggregation size is based on (1) the tradeoff between the estimated mean square error of prediction and the variance of the predictor, (2) the differences between estimation and forecasting, and (3) the direct consideration of the correlation between link travel time for corridor/route estimation and forecasting. The proposed methods are demonstrated using travel time data from Houston, Texas, that were collected as part of the automatic vehicle identification (AVI) system of the Houston Transtar system. It was found that the optimal aggregation size is a function of the application and traffic condition.