Forecasting travel behavior using Markov Chains-based approaches

Recent advances in agent-based micro-simulation modeling have further highlighted the importance of a thorough full synthetic population procedure for guaranteeing the correct characterization of real-world populations and underlying travel demands. In this regard, we propose an integrated approach including Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation and profiling-based methods to capture the behavioral complexity and the great heterogeneity of agents of the true population through representative micro-samples. The population synthesis method is capable of building the joint distribution of a given population with its corresponding marginal distributions using either full or partial conditional probabilities or both of them simultaneously. In particular, the estimation of socio-demographic or transport-related variables and the characterization of daily activity-travel patterns are included within the framework. The fully probabilistic structure based on Markov Chains characterizing this framework makes it innovative compared to standard activity-based models. Moreover, data stemming from the 2010 Belgian Household Daily Travel Survey (BELDAM) are used to calibrate the modeling framework. We illustrate that this framework effectively captures the behavioral heterogeneity of travelers. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the proposed framework is adequately adapted to meeting the demand for large-scale micro-simulation scenarios of transportation and urban systems.     

填方路基不均匀沉降模式及其成因机制

在山区和多丘陵地区多采用挖方土石混合料填筑路基,并且形成高路堤。因此在路基的自重荷载和行车荷载共同作用下,经常出现路基的整体下沉或部分下沉,特别是一些填挖接头和桥台处,路基不均匀沉降特别突出。经过大量的实际调查以及实验,归纳起来填方路基的不均匀沉降主要有四种基本模式:路基填方压实度不足;地基中存在软弱土层;路基刚度差异过大;填充物成分不均匀。     

浅析依托工程的科研项目实施与经费管理方式

由于对科研项目实施方式的了解不够深入、重视短期经济利益等原因,部分工程企业,尤其中小型企业围绕工程开展科研项目的意愿比较低.通过简要分析目前依托工程开展科研攻关的主要实施方式,并结合工程案例讨论与分析包括经费筹集、分配、支付与过程管理等在内的经费管理方式,以期提高相关企业参与工程科研攻关的积极性.     

Does the income elasticity of road traffic depend on the source of income?

An extensive body of literature addresses the income elasticity of road traffic, in which income is typically treated as a homogenous quantity. Here we report evidence of heterogeneity in cross-sectional estimates of the elasticity of vehicle-kilometres of travel (VKT) with respect to income, when household income is disaggregated on the basis of income source.The results are generally intuitive, and show that the cross-sectional income elasticity of road traffic is not homogeneous as is typically specified in transport planning models. We show that in a number of circumstances the cross-sectional elasticity with respect to aggregate household income is of the opposite sign in comparison to more refined estimates of elasticity disaggregated by income source. If further research confirms that the elasticities we report here are causal in nature, neglecting the elemental effects could result in misleading results affecting practical infrastructure-investment and policy decisions, particularly as the mix of income sources shifts (e.g. if, as society ages, pension income increases as a share of all income).These results are of interest to both researchers and forecasters of travel demand, as well as designers of future travel survey instruments; the latter group must decide how to generate data about respondents’ income. Current expert guidance is to collect a single estimate of aggregate income at the household level. Future travel survey design choices will bound the analyses that can be supported by the resulting survey data, and therefore methodological research to re-visit the trade-offs associated with such choices is warranted.     

诉审商谈主义论纲——一种基于法律商谈理论的诉讼构造观

当下我国有关民事诉讼构造的研究,从路径上看大致可归入理性主义和经验主义两种思维模式下。但是这两种思维模式曾经遭遇的论证困境,前者如所谓明希豪森困境,后者如休谟问题,并未得到解决。此种困境,也体现在我国有关民事诉讼构造问题的研究中。为解决或者说避开上述困境,可以考虑借鉴哈贝马斯在其交往行为理论基础上提出的法律商谈理论的论证路径,也就是以参与者的共同理性选择,作为建构正当程序的终极依据。     

Development and validation of a direct mode choice model

A direct discrete mode choice model is introduced using relative attributes of competing modes as well as socioeconomic characteristics of travelers. The model is calibrated and validated for two available historic databases in the Dallas–Fort Worth region. The validation is conducted against the outputs of a current nested logit model used by the regional planning organization as well as the observed values based on transit ridership surveys for a newly inaugurated commuter rail service. The calibrated model is applied after the introduction of this new transit mode. The results show that the estimated mode shares by the proposed model have a statistically better consistency with the observed values than the estimates of the conventional nested logit model. Unlike the logit model, the structure of the direct model based on relative attributes also has the advantage of not needing recalibration each time a new travel mode is introduced. The model is found to be easier to calibrate and produces more accurate results than the nested logit model, commonly used by many metropolitan planning organizations.     

铁路延伸客服系统设计方案研究

随着客运专线铁路及电子商务的兴起，延伸铁路客运服务信息系统将为旅客提供更加便捷高效的服务，介绍了延伸旅客服务信息系统的总体方案及设计。     

风险管理在某EPC项目中的应用

设计单位作为工程设计、采购、施工的总承包商,对建设工程的质量、安全、工期、造价、环保等全面负责,比传统的工程设计扩大了责任范围,增加了管理难度,同样承担了更多的风险.那么,如何在建设过程中对可能存在的风险进行识别和评价,此文从设计、采购、施工等方面进行论述和评价.根据评价等级,对不可接受的风险,提出可采取的应对措施,以期达到风险管理的目的.     

Roads in transition: Integrated modeling of a manufacturer-traveler-infrastructure system in a mixed autonomous/human driving environment

This paper develops an integrated model to characterize the market penetration of autonomous vehicles (AVs) in urban transportation networks. The model explicitly accounts for the interplay among the AV manufacturer, travelers with heterogeneous values of travel time (VOTT), and road infrastructure capacity. By making in-vehicle time use more leisurely or productive, AVs reduce travelers’ VOTT. In addition, AVs can move closer together than human-driven vehicles because of shorter safe reaction time, which leads to increased road capacity. On the other hand, the use of AV technologies means added manufacturing cost and higher price. Thus, traveler adoption of AVs will trade VOTT savings with additional out-of-pocket cost. The model is structured as a leader (AV manufacturer)-follower (traveler) game. Given the cost of producing AVs, the AV manufacturer sets AV price to maximize profit while anticipating AV market penetration. Given an AV price, the vehicle and routing choice of heterogeneous travelers are modeled by combining a multinomial logit model with multi-modal multi-class user equilibrium (UE). The overall problem is formulated as a mathematical program with complementarity constraints (MPCC), which is challenging to solve. We propose a solution approach based on piecewise linearization of the MPCC as a mixed-integer linear program (MILP) and solving the MILP to global optimality. Non-uniform distribution of breakpoints that delimit piecewise intervals and feasibility-based domain reduction are further employed to reduce the approximation error brought by linearization. The model is implemented in a simplified Singapore network with extensive sensitivity analyses and the Sioux Falls network. Computational results demonstrate the effectiveness and efficiency of the solution approach and yield valuable insights about transportation system performance in a mixed autonomous/human driving environment.     

Estimating the bus user time benefits of implementing a median busway: Methodology and case study

This paper presents a general framework to estimate the bus user time benefits of a median busway including the effects on travel time and access time. Unlike previous models, we take into account the effects of geometry and the interaction with the demand structure. Models for predicting the bus in-vehicle time benefits of a median dual carriageway busway against mixed traffic condition on 2 and 3 lanes roads are estimated using data from a case study in Santiago (Chile), using a bus travel time model empirically estimated and considering different base case situations, including mixed traffic operations and bus lanes. Results of the application show that the expected in-vehicle time savings of a median busway might be reduced by access time losses due to increased walking distances and road crossing delays. Also, that net time benefits can vary significantly according to the base situation and the structure of demand considered. These findings point out to the need of including a wider set of impacts when studying the benefits of median busways, beyond in-vehicle time savings only. The empirical work presented here is completely based on passive data coming from GPS and smartcards, what makes easier and cheaper to conduct this type of analysis as well as to do it with a comprehensive scope at an early stage of the development of a BRT project. This framework can be extended to other types of dedicated bus lanes provided that a corresponding bus travel time savings model is available.