A reliability-based assignment method for railway networks with heterogeneous passengers

Travel reliability can play an important role in shaping travelers’ route choice behavior. This paper develops a railway passenger assignment method to capture the reliability-based route choices, where the trains can have stochastic delays. The overall travel reliability has two components: the travel time reliability (of trains) and the associated transfer reliability (of connections). In this context, mean-and-variance-based effective travel cost is adopted to model passengers’ evaluation of different travel options in the railway network. Moreover, passengers are heterogeneous as they may evaluate the effective travel cost differently, and they may have different requirements for the successful transfer probability (if transfers are involved in the trip). The determination of travel time reliability (of trains) is based on the travel delay distribution, and the successful transfer probability is calculated based on the delay probabilities of two trains in the transfer process. An algorithm has been designed for solving the model, and numerical examples are presented to test and illustrate the model.     

Crossing the bridge: The effects of time-varying tolls on curbing congestion

This paper estimates the traffic volume and travel time effects of the road congestion pricing implemented on the San Francisco-Oakland Bay Bridge. I employ both difference-in-differences and regression discontinuity approaches to analyze previously unexploited data for the two years spanning the price change and obtain causal estimates of the hourly average treatment effects of the policy. I find evidence of peak spreading in traffic volume and decreases in travel time during peak hours. I also find suggestive evidence of substitution to a nearby bridge and decreases in travel time variability. In addition, I calculate own- and cross-price elasticities.     

Identification of communities in urban mobility networks using multi-layer graphs of network traffic

This paper proposes a novel approach to identify the pockets of activity or the community structure in a city network using multi-layer graphs that represent the movement of disparate entities (i.e. private cars, buses and passengers) in the network. First, we process the trip data corresponding to each entity through a Voronoi segmentation procedure which provides a natural null model to compare multiple layers in a real world network. Second, given nodes that represent Voronoi cells and link weights that define the strength of connection between them, we apply a community detection algorithm and partition the network into smaller areas independently at each layer. The partitioning algorithm returns geographically well connected regions in all layers and reveal significant characteristics underlying the spatial structure of our city. Third, we test an algorithm that reveals the unified community structure of multi-layer networks, which are combinations of single-layer networks coupled through links between each node in one network layer to itself in other layers. This approach allows us to directly compare the resulting communities in multiple layers where connection types are categorically different.     

Gender differentials in travel pattern – The case of a mid-sized city,Rajkot, India

This paper is at the conjunction of arguments for gender equity in transport services on one hand and need to move towards low carbon transport on the other in a developing country city. The case study city, Rajkot, a mid-sized Indian city with mixed land use and limited public transport at the time of this study, has short trip lengths and low trip rates. But, even in this city there is gender disparity in travel pattern. Thus, trip rates and trip lengths of women in the city in each of the income group are lower than that of their male counter parts. With the increase in income, both, the trip rates and lengths increase, but, the increase is higher for men than for women. While the large proportions of women in each income group walk, that among the lowest income group walking is the predominant mode, as they are ‘no-choice’ or ‘forced’ walkers. With the increase in household income, women tend to shift to para-transit and men to personal motorized transport. If sustainability arguments or climate policies are to target retaining the current low ecological footprint of the women as one of the strategies, it needs to cater to expansion of their mobility while improving infrastructure to support the same.     

Evaluating the added-value of online bus arrival prediction schemes

Online predictions of bus arrival times have the potential to reduce the uncertainty associated with bus operations. By better anticipating future conditions, online predictions can reduce perceived and actual passenger travel times as well as facilitate more proactive decision making by service providers. Even though considerable research efforts were devoted to the development of computationally expensive bus arrival prediction schemes, real-world real-time information (RTI) systems are typically based on very simple prediction rules. This paper narrows down the gap between the state-of-the-art and the state-of-the-practice in generating RTI for public transport systems by evaluating the added-value of schemes that integrate instantaneous data and dwell time predictions. The evaluation considers static information and a commonly deployed scheme as a benchmark. The RTI generation algorithms were applied and analyzed for a trunk bus network in Stockholm, Sweden. The schemes are assessed and compared based on their accuracy, reliability, robustness and potential waiting time savings. The impact of RTI on passengers waiting times are compared with those attained by service frequency and regularity improvements. A method which incorporates information on downstream travel conditions outperforms the commonly deployed scheme, leading to a 25% reduction in the mean absolute error. Furthermore, the incorporation of instantaneous travel times improves the prediction accuracy and reliability, and contributes to more robust predictions. The potential waiting time gains associated with the prediction scheme are equivalent to the gains expected when introducing a 60% increase in service frequency, and are not attainable by service regularity improvements.     

Factors affecting temporal changes in mode choice model parameters

In travel demand forecasting models, parameters are often assumed to be stable over time. The stability of these parameters, however, has been questioned. This study investigates the factors affecting temporal changes in mode choice model parameters using a method proposed by the author that jointly utilises repeated cross-sectional data. In this method, the parameters are assumed to follow functional forms and the parameter changes are modelled endogenously. While the author’s previous studies assumed that all parameters are the same function of the same variable, this study assumes that different parameters are different functions of different variables, including time (year) and macro-economic variables. The paper describes a case study of a journey-to-work mode choice analysis for Nagoya, Japan, that examines 288 combinations of the functional forms and variables. The analysis found that the functions of time had serious over-fitting problems and that parameter changes are more closely related to economic factors.     

流固耦合作用下的注水管路流激振动噪声数值模拟

大压差工况下,船舶内部液舱自流注水时管路振动噪声问题突出。采用有限体积法离散大涡模拟的流体控制方程,计算分析典型工况下注水系统管内流场。考虑管内液体对管道结构振动的影响,计算注水管路的“湿模态”。以管路壁面流体压力脉动作为激励源,基于有限元法对流固耦合作用下管道结构的振动和流激振动辐射噪声进行数值模拟。对阀门上下游不同监测点的流激振动噪声频谱进行分析,探究管路流激振动噪声产生、传播和衰减规律。分析结果表明:注水系统管道结构流激振动噪声沿管道传播基本无衰减;流激振动噪声频带较宽,主频率为80 Hz;管道结构的流激振动噪声整体幅值较大,需要采取增加弹性管卡等措施进行治理。     

TW-2系统测重设备轴重异常报警分析及解决方案

针对近年来部分驼峰场TW-2型驼峰控制系统使用的测重设备的轴重异常报警频发的现象,通过分析典型轴重异常报警故障,找出问题的主要原因,提出有效的解决方案并成功运用于现场,取得良好的效果,可为后续工程设计提供参考和借鉴。     

习惯影响下城际出行方式选择意向形成机理

旅客在出行选择决策中存在依赖经验而不愿意进行新尝试的习惯行为倾向，研究分析旅客在选择普铁、大巴和高铁 3种城际出行方式行为中的习惯影响程度及意向形成机理. 本文在对习惯进行定义和测量的基础上，引入习惯潜变量改进计划行为理论，构建习惯与意向间关系的结构方程模型.模型标定结果显示，对于普铁、大巴和高铁3种城际出行方式，各潜变量对意向总的解释方差分别为71.9%、54.9%、62.3%，习惯对意向解释的总效应分别为0.538、0.851、0.538，其中间接效应分别为0.538、0.513、0.258.分析结果表明：城际出行方式选择中存在明显的习惯倾向，其中相对于直接影响，间接影响效应更强；3种出行方式中，大巴的选择受习惯影响最明显.     

Mode selection of tractor-and-semitrailer swap transport for ro-ro shipping under land-sea combined transportation

ABSTRACT

Combining ro-ro shipping and tractor-and-semitrailer swap transport under land-sea combined transportation can reduce operating costs and improve the safety of maritime transport. In addition, selection of the tractor-and-semitrailer swap mode (i.e., the ship-swap mode and port-swap mode) is a critical factor that affects the efficiency and cost of ro-ro ship loading/unloading. Considering inland pickup/delivery and ship loading/unloading, this paper develops a model that determines the mode of tractor-and-semitrailer swap transport with the objective of minimizing the total cost. This study also considers constraints such as empty semitrailer exchange and multiple time windows associated with customer receiving/delivery locations and the ro-ro ship. A hybrid simulated annealing (SA) is applied to solve the problem. By analysing numerical examples, the results show that the port-swap mode is more suitable than the ship-swap mode when the number of tasks is large because the port-swap mode can perform more tasks with fewer tractors than the ship-swap mode and because the port-swap mode can service receiving/delivery locations and finish ship loading/unloading more punctually than the ship-swap mode. Thus, this research provides a useful reference for road transport carriers and port firms to select the mode of tractor-and-semitrailer swap transport for ro-ro shipping.