公共交通系统营运可靠性研究

优先发展公共交通是大城市解决交通拥堵,实现城市交通可持续发展的一项重要措施,然而,公交营运水平的低下制约着公交的发展。本文借鉴可靠性理论对公共交通营运可靠性进行定义,并对公交营运时间和乘客服务可靠性分别进行了描述,据此建立起公交系统营运可靠性模型,然后采用随机模拟技术(即Monte Carlo模拟)进行求解,通过算例说明模型的可行性,最后通过分析可靠性模型得出大型活动期间改善公交营运的途径。     

水泥混凝土路面结构模糊随机可靠度设计方法研究

我国水泥混凝土路面设计经历了3个发展阶段：经验法、力学一经验法和可靠度设计法。由于荷载、环境作用和结构设计参数的随机性和模糊性，它们都将影响路面结构的可靠度水平。为了更好地发展现有路面设计理论，系统地分析了现有水泥混凝土路面设计规范，对路面结构可靠度进行了定义和讨论。采用模糊随机可靠度理论，对水泥混凝土路面结构可靠度设计方法进行了系统分析，研究提出了路面模糊随机可靠度的设计公式，讨论了各个设计变量的变异性，并结合具体设计提出了详细的步骤和思路。     

基于混合算法的大跨度斜拉桥可靠度评估

为研究大跨度顸应力混凝土(PC)斜拉桥的可靠度评估问题,提出了适用于大跨度PC斜拉桥这类复杂结构可靠性分析的混合算法.该方法综合运用了有限元分析(FEA)、径向基函数(RBF)神经网络、遗传算法(GA)和Monte Carlo重要抽样(MCIS)方法,并对算法中的关键步骤(RBF神经网络的初始样本点设计方法、MCIS的抽样中心点位置等)进行了改进,使结构分析模块与可靠度计算模块智能结合.利用数值算例的可靠度分析对该算法的有效性进行了验证.最后,以一座主跨为420 m的双塔PC斜拉桥为工程背景,进行了正常使用极限状态下的可靠度分析.参数分析表明:在汽车荷载作用下,该斜拉桥的主梁跨中位移超限失效概率比最长斜拉索强度失效概率高;汽车荷载的均值和标准差是影响斜拉桥可靠度的重要因素;随着汽车荷载均值系数的增大,主梁跨中位移超限失效的可靠指标下降的趋势较为显著.     

小件快运中的最短运输时间问题

小件快运经过多年的发展,已经成为公路客运一个新的经济增长点,越来越多的公路客运企业和汽车客运站加入到经营小件快运的行列,小件快运也逐渐由单个企业的独立运营发展到多个企业联合的网络化运营。对中转运输中多条运输线路进行分析,得到最短运输时间线路,从而提高运输效率。     

围岩空间变异性对隧道结构可靠度的影响分析

采用随机场模型能够有效地模拟围岩参数的空间变异性。文章将局部平均随机场理论、有限差分法和Monte-Carlo模拟结合在一起,得到了Monte-Carlo随机有限差分法,基于该方法编制了可考虑围岩空间变异性的隧道结构可靠度计算程序;并将围岩密度、弹性模量和内摩擦角等参数视为三维正态随机场,研究了围岩的竖向与水平向相关距离的变化对隧道结构可靠度的影响。计算结果表明,围岩空间变异性会显著影响隧道结构的可靠度,为了获得更为经济合理的支护方案,在支护设计时考虑围岩参数的空间变异性很有必要;围岩竖向或水平向相关距离的增大均会引起隧道结构失效概率的增加,但影响程度不同;隧道结构失效概率对围岩竖向空间变异性更加敏感,故在工程勘察费用较少时,可考虑将勘察费用更多地投入到竖向相关距离的勘测,水平向相关距离可参考已有经验数据取值。     

Estimation of value of travel time reliability

In mode choice decision, travelers consider not only travel time but also reliability of its modes. In this paper, reliability was expressed in terms of standard deviation and maximum delay that were measured based on triangular distribution. In order to estimate value of time and value of reliability, the Multinomial and Nested Logit models were used. The analysis results revealed that reliability is an important factor affecting mode choice decisions. Elasticity is used to estimate the impacts of the different policies and system improvements for water transportation mode. Among these policies, decision maker can assess and select the best alternative by doing the benefit and cost analysis based on a new market share, the value of time, and the value of reliability. Finally, a set of promising policies and system improvement of the water transportation were proposed.     

含缺陷压力管道安全评定方法研究的现状与发展

含缺陷压力管道安全评定的方法较多,主要有极限载荷控制的塑性失效准则、断裂力学J积分的评定方法、英国R6双判据准则评定方法、美国ASME规范评定方法、参数不确定性缺陷的安全评定方法等.文章对这些方法加以简要的概括和评述,并分析了有些方法之间的区别与联系,同时指出工程化、可靠性和智能化是当前含缺陷压力管道安全评定方法的发展趋向.     

大洪山生态文化旅游区空间发展模式研究

文章针对近域旅游区主导旅游资源相似和相异并存的特点,提出旅游区＂整合-竞合＂发展模式（3C模式）,并以大洪山生态文化旅游区组织与规划为例,提出基于游客行为的旅游线路组织模式及相应的旅游公路网布局结构与交通设计理念。     

Bus congestion, optimal infrastructure investment and the choice of a fare collection system in dedicated bus corridors

Microeconomic optimisation of scheduled public transport operations has traditionally focused on finding optimal values for the frequency of service, capacity of vehicles, number of lines and distance between stops. In addition, however, there exist other elements in the system that present a trade-off between the interests of users and operators that have not received attention in the literature, such as the optimal selection of a fare payment system and a designed running speed (i.e., the cruising speed that buses maintain in between two consecutive stops). Alternative fare payment methods (e.g., on-board and off-board, payment by cash, magnetic strip or smart card) have different boarding times and capital costs, with the more efficient systems such as a contactless smart card imposing higher amounts of capital investment. Based on empirical data from several Bus Rapid Transit systems around the world, we also find that there is a positive relationship between infrastructure cost per kilometre and commercial speed (including stops), achieved by the buses, which we further postulate as a linear relationship between infrastructure investment and running speed. Given this context, we develop a microeconomic model for the operation of a bus corridor that minimises total cost (users and operator) and has five decision variables: frequency, capacity of vehicles, station spacing, fare payment system and running speed, thus extending the traditional framework. Congestion, induced by bus frequency, plays an important role in the design of the system, as queues develop behind high demand bus stops when the frequency is high. We show that (i) an off-board fare payment system is the most cost effective in the majority of circumstances; (ii) bus congestion results in decreased frequency while fare and bus capacity increase, and (iii) the optimal running speed grows with the logarithm of demand.     

Schedule-based transit assignment model with vehicle capacity and seat availability

In this paper, we propose a new schedule-based equilibrium transit assignment model that differentiates the discomfort level experienced by sitting and standing passengers. The notion of seat allocation has not been considered explicitly and analytically in previous schedule-based frameworks. The model assumes that passengers use strategies when traveling from their origin to their destination. When loading a vehicle, standing on-board passengers continuing to the next station have priority to get available seats and waiting passengers are loaded on a First-Come-First-Serve (FCFS) principle. The stimulus of a standing passenger to sit increases with his/her remaining journey length and time already spent on-board. When a vehicle is full, passengers unable to board must wait for the next vehicle to arrive. The equilibrium conditions can be stated as a variational inequality involving a vector-valued function of expected strategy costs. To find a solution, we adopt the method of successive averages (MSA) that generates strategies during each iteration by solving a dynamic program. Numerical results are also reported to show the effects of our model on the travel strategies and departure time choices of passengers.