基于AQWA的双浮箱-双水平板浮式防波堤水动力分析

运用AQWA软件,针对双浮箱-双水平板浮式防波堤,建立不规则波作用下浮体锚链的耦合模型,研究时域情况下,改变水平板与浮箱的垂直间距,分析浮体运动响应以及锚链受力情况;并深入探讨了不同波浪周期和波高情况下水平板长度对浮体运动响应以及锚链受力的影响.结果表明,增加水平板与浮箱的垂直间距和水平板长度,可以有效减小浮体运动响应和锚链受力.波高和波浪周期是浮体重要的水动力因素,波高越大,波浪周期越长,浮体运动响应越剧烈;当浮体水平板长度达到21米左右时,整个防波堤达到最佳锚泊状态.     

基于改进移动最小二乘法的结构可靠性分析

基于改进移动最小二乘法对结构可靠性问题进行分析,数值模拟结果表明,改进方法可有效提高计算精度.具体方法是使用椭圆范数代替二范数来度量样本点到中心点的距离,并根据上次迭代所得到的响应面在中心点处的法向量与坐标轴所成角度,对影响域进行旋转变换;从而将样本点的权重大小由样本点与中心点、响应面的距离共同决定,并将每次迭代得到的响应面函数在中心点处的法向信息包含在内.     

提高柴油机供油系统可靠性探讨

柴油机的供油系统是柴油机的重要组成部分,是柴油机的心脏与血脉,它对柴油机的燃烧以及柴油机的动力性、经济性、可靠性和排放特性等一系列性能指标有着有直接的影响。统计数据表明,在柴油机的各种故障中,供油系统的故障比例最高．本文对柴油机供油系统进行可靠性分析,并对如何提高其可靠性提出建议．     

武汉市过长江交通流量特征分析

武汉市过长江交通是武汉市最主要的交通流向之一。根据流量观测数据分析长江交通流量特征,表明武汉市区过长江交通饱和,交通需求总量大,出行目的种类多。过长江交通没有明显、固定的高峰日和高峰小时,除通勤交通外。还有公务等大量非通勤交通。其中武昌与汉口之间交通是主流向,需要适当新增通道缓解过江难问题。     

发射装置可靠性指标分配方法研究及其应用

针对发射装置研制的特点,介绍了可靠性指标分配的基本准则及相应的分配方法,即等分配法、比例分配法、专家评分法、AGREE分配法等.针对发射装置可靠性信息特点,提出了在发射装置论证和方案设计阶段、初步设计阶段、详细设计阶段进行可靠性分配的原则,并将AGREE方法用在发射装置的可靠度的分配中进行了应用,取得了较好的效果.     

船摇前馈控制补偿效果及优化方法研究

雷达隔离船摇的主要手段之一.针对船摇前馈在实际工程应用中补偿效果不理想的问题,通过对前馈复合控制原理、船摇前馈实现方法和效果影响因素的研究,提出了工程实现的优化方法.采用时间序列分析方法进行船摇数据预报可以提高近一个数量级的预报精度,从而直接提高船摇前馈补偿量的计算精度和补偿效果.通过在前馈补偿环节中加入自适应设计以实现船摇前馈信息有效平稳地加入控制环路.此外,选择适宜的时机加入船摇前馈也是工程应用的一个重要因素.     

有限元可靠度方法在桥梁工程中的应用

一次二阶矩法是目前求解结构可靠性分析的主要计算方法之一．该方法要求功能函数对随机变量的偏导运算。然而对于以有限元方法分析为主的桥梁结构．无法对其隐式功能函数进行显式求导．限制了一次二阶矩法的应用。本文给出了隐式功能函数可靠度的随机有限元解决方案．考虑了有限元方法和可靠度方法结合使用过程中,经典一次二阶矩法的改造问题。算例表明,该方法能够适用于基于有限元的结构可靠度分析,并在求解过程中给出随机变量的敏感系数。     

汽车驾驶人的可靠性分析

交通运输系统是具有关键性人为差错的冗余系统,通过引入人为差错概念,对时间连续工作驾驶人的可靠性进行分析．用经典的可靠度函数方法或马尔可夫方法建立了同样的驾驶人可靠性数学模型,同时提出了驾驶应力（忧虑）的新概念,指出它是影响驾驶工作工效和可靠性的重要因素。     

The effect of crowding on public transit user travel behavior in a large-scale public transportation system through modeling daily variations

In this paper, the crowding effect in a transit vehicle is modeled in a time-expanded network that considers the daily variation in passenger flows. The study models the daily variation of in-vehicle crowding in a real large-scale transit system. A transit assignment for this real network is modeled and implemented by constructing a crowding cost function that follows the valuation of crowding and by using the reliable shortest path finding method. The direct application of the crowding model to a real network for the Utah Transit Authority indicates that crowd modeling with multi-user classes could influence public transportation system planning and affect the revenues of transit agencies. Moreover, the addition of the disutility factor, crowding, does not always appear to cause an increase in disutility for transit users.     

An adaptive information fusion model to predict the short-term link travel time distribution in dynamic traffic networks

As intelligent transportation systems (ITS) approach the realm of widespread deployment, there is an increasing need to robustly capture the variability of link travel time in real-time to generate reliable predictions of real-time traffic conditions. This study proposes an adaptive information fusion model to predict the short-term link travel time distribution by iteratively combining past information on link travel time on the current day with the real-time link travel time information available at discrete time points. The past link travel time information is represented as a discrete distribution. The real-time link travel time is represented as a range, and is characterized using information quality in terms of information accuracy and time delay. A nonlinear programming formulation is used to specify the adaptive information fusion model to update the short-term link travel time distribution by focusing on information quality. The model adapts good information by weighing it higher while shielding the effects of bad information by reducing its weight. Numerical experiments suggest that the proposed model adequately represents the short-term link travel time distribution in terms of accuracy and robustness, while ensuring consistency with ambient traffic flow conditions. Further, they illustrate that the mean of a representative short-term travel time distribution is not necessarily a good tracking indicator of the actual (ground truth) time-dependent travel time on that link. Parametric sensitivity analysis illustrates that information accuracy significantly influences the model, and dominates the effects of time delay and the consistency constraint parameter. The proposed information fusion model bridges key methodological gaps in the ITS deployment context related to information fusion and the need for short-term travel time distributions.