Managing Shoreline Change Under Increasing Sea-Level Rise in Ghana

Relative sea-level rise will affect vulnerable coastal communities globally. Quantifying this effect on the coastal environment and infrastructure provides critical information that enables coastal managers to develop sustainable mitigation and adaptation measures. Modeling applications have enabled the past, present, and future trends in shoreline morphology to be investigated in detail. Predictive numerical models depend largely on the reliability of the input data. This article reports on using the Soft Cliff and Platform Erosion (SCAPE) numerical model to simulate future shoreline evolution trend in the central Accra coast in Ghana. The model input parameters include historic shoreline recession rates, wave data, tidal data, bathymetry, beach volume, beach topography, historic relative sea-level rise rates, and the shoreline orientation. The data fed the SCAPE numerical model which simulated the emergence of soft rock shore profiles over timescale of decades to centuries, to project future positions of the central Accra shoreline for the next 100 years under different scenarios of climate change. Simulated future shoreline positions overlaid on a 2005 orthophoto map of Accra enabled vulnerable areas and infrastructure at risk to be identified. It emerged that a highly populated community in central Accra will be inundated by 2065, while the Rivera beach resort will be eroded from 2035. A natural fish landing site in Osu (suburb in Accra) will be lost from 2045. The study has demonstrated that considerable ecological, economic, social, and national losses should be expected within the next century. Shoreline change management options should be explored to help mitigate the expected impact of the sea-level rise.     

浙江LNG码头总平面布置试验研究

浙江LNG码头是我国目前最大的LNG码头之一,所处环境相对复杂,在项目设计过程中,为确定合理的码头总 平面布置方案、保证船舶安全系靠泊,采用了物理模型试验的方法,对3个不同的平面布置方案进行了比较,通过试验得出 不同方案下的船舶运动量及系缆力等参数,通过分析试验结果最终明确了合理的总平面布置方案。     

梅东浅滩围垦对水流影响的数值模拟

由于梅山本岛土地资源紧张,为了实现梅山规划区块功能,初步考虑在梅山本岛东部围垦以建设梅山通用航 空产业基地等基础设施。采用MIKE 21 HD水动力模型对梅山水道封堵前提下5个不同围垦方案实施后对梅山岛海域的流场 情况进行了数值模拟,并对比围垦实施前后潮流场变化情况,对各方案进行初步比选。从模拟结果可以看出,规划梅东围 垦工程的建设不会改变大范围整体海域的流场结构。总体而言,梅东围垦方案一围垦范围最小,受其影响的范围也相对较 小,而方案5由于未封堵扑蛇山与梅山间汊道,因此其对穿山南作业区的影响程度要小于其他各封堵汊道的方案。     

Managing port-related supply chain disruptions (PSCDs): a management model and empirical evidence

ABSTRACT

In the contemporary port business environment, port resilience is of paramount importance for supply chain continuity. A result of the increased integration of ports into supply chains is ports’ potential to supply chain disruptions. This paper introduces a PSCD management model that incorporates the application of risk management, business continuity management, and quality management theories with the purpose of increasing port resilience such that supply chain continuity is enhanced. To validate this model, primary data were collected from samples of port operators and port authorities and analyzed using structural equation modeling with AMOS 22.0. The results indicate that managing PSCD using the management model contributes positively to the identification of internal and external opportunities and through that to port’s resilience of internal operations. This, in turn, positively influences port’s financial health and market reputation. The management model has several managerial and academic implications as it offers meaningful insights on policy development as well as theory building.     

A Microscopic Simulation Model for Incident Modeling in Urban Networks

Abstract

This paper reviews the main modules of an integrated system for incident management in real-time, -sim. A core to such a system is a microscopic simulator with extended abilities to model the temporal and spatial evolution of specified non-recurrent traffic conditions. The paper reviews the mathematical formulation of the car-following and lane-changing modules. The model is validated using a simulation-based approach. Concluding comments on the general validation process of the model are provided. The paper finally presents a sample of the accident patterns replicated by the model together with their implications for real world validation.     

基于UC-win/Road的城市高架路建模及应用

随着城市的飞速发展和道路基础设施的完善,城市高架路作为主要城市快速路之一,已成为国内外城市解决交通问题的重要手段之一。利用UC-win/Road软件及其模拟器可以实现城市高架路的模拟仿真。以南京市宁溧高架为例,设计资料为平、纵、横参数,在UC-win/Road平台上进行建模并实现模拟驾驶,最后对其应用前景作出展望。     

城市中心区交通拥堵定价模型及其仿真算法

为改善城市中心区的交通拥堵,以国内城市中心区区域路网为研究对象,以路网车辆整体延误时间最短为优化目标,拥堵收费价格为决策变量,路网饱和度和信号配时为约束条件,建立了拥堵定价优化模型,并给出了基于VISSIM软件的仿真求解方法和步骤.实例仿真结果表明:在城市中心区区域路网采用该定价模型可以找到最优定价及合理的信号配时方案;计算机仿真方法可大幅度降低模型求解难度,并可直观地为交通管理部门制订拥堵定价方案提供理论依据.     

舰船动力系统模块化建模方法

在舰船动力系统仿真平台的研究中,建立的系统模型应能够满足实时仿真的要求,同时具有通用性,以提高仿真模型的重复利用率。以某型舰船动力系统为例,研究模块的分类、模块的分解处理等模块化建模方法,建立其模型库并进行仿真验证。该方法克服了传统建模法得到的模型可移植性与独立性较差的缺点,提高了模型的可重用性。     

舰载反鱼雷鱼雷对抗行为分析与建模

为提高舰载反鱼雷鱼雷（ATT）对抗鱼雷的作战效率,研究ATT在多种方案下拦截鱼雷的问题。针对以往ATT二维对抗态势模型的不足,建立三维立体空间下的ATT运动学模型、鱼雷运动模型、ATT/鱼雷自导模型以及误差模型,运用MATLAB工具对ATT的对抗过程进行推演,并采用蒙特卡洛法定量分析ATT发射距离对不同拦截方案下拦截概率的影响。仿真结果表明,该模型可以用于舰载ATT对抗方案的定量评价。     

基于流程优化的公路设计项目管理技术

在分析当前公路设计流程存在的问题的基础上,提出基于ESIA方法的流程优化方案,可为解决公路勘察设计中项目管理的难题提供一定的参考与借鉴.