中小城市公共交通优先发展的策略研究——以浙江省长兴县为例

中小城市作为我国经济结构的重要基础,是加快推进城镇化水平的中坚力量。但伴随着中小城市的城市化进程,城市交通问题日益突出,从城市健康可持续发展的角度考虑,急需优先发展公共交通。以浙江省长兴县为例,对我国中小城市公共交通发展存在的问题进行了分析探讨,并从土地公交协调发展、线网层次合理布局、客流通道优先通行、城乡公共客运统筹发展等方面提出了系统性的策略措施。     

Measuring the impact of urban policies on transportation energy saving using a land use-transport model

Various projects all over the world are attempting to build smart cities in hopes of achieving energy-efficient and livable communities, but most of them are aiming to fulfill their goals technologically. However, the energy efficiency and livability of a city are affected by not only these technological factors but also urban structures that encompass residential areas, offices, transportation networks, and other facilities. Urban policies intervene in transportation and land-use conditions and thereby change how citizens consume energy and go about their daily lives as the actors in the urban system alter their behavior. This means that energy efficiency and quality of life share close ties. Assessments of urban policies thus need to consider the reactions of actors to the intervention.     

低碳经济背景下河谷型城市交通级配体系研究

文章针对交通方式的合理比例分配问题,提出了交通级配的概念,构建了城市交通级配体系,并基于对西部河谷型城市道路网络特征的分析,以兰州市为例,提出了相应的交通管理措施,为城市绿色交通建设的实现提供方法借鉴。     

小城市公共交通服务评价指标体系

从基础设施服务和企业运营服务两方面,构建适合小城市的公共交通服务评价指标体系。选取站点覆盖率、车辆拥有率、乘客换乘次数和搭乘步行时间四项指标衡量城市基础设施的服务能力,行车准点率、运营车速、乘客候车时间和高峰满载率作为企业运营服务能力的衡量指标,并根据公共交通服务评级的等级分析指标的量值范围。     

面向新型城镇化的长江流域城际客运体系战略

城际客运体系的构建是长江流域城市实现工业化和新型城镇化的重要前提。首先对发达国家三类城际客运体系结构模式和中国客运体系结构发展历程进行了总结,并基于新型城镇化要求与基本国情,提出长江流域应构建可持续发展、多层级协调的新型城际客运体系,以高速铁路与航空为双核驱动,以普通铁路与公路为基础。然后分析了高速铁路在产业和人口转移方面的巨大引领作用,并指出航空运输对于全球化时代城市群形态的构建、内部产业分工协作不可或缺,同时阐明了长江流域对高速铁路及航空运输的强劲需求。最后提出城际客运交通与城市之间,以及各城际客运交通方式相互之间应加强联系、无缝衔接。     

中等城市慢行交通系统规划分析

目前城市慢行交通系统的规划与建设逐渐引起各界关注,但其规划内容及技术手段尚处于摸索阶段。在中等城市中慢行交通占有更高的比例,通过分析中等城市自身发展特点来规划慢行交通,使之提升城市空间功能,创建宜居环境。以渭南市为例,并在此基础上提出慢行交通系统规划的技术路线。     

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为提高交通规划与决策质量,有必要妥善处理交通调查无回答问题. 但是在相关研究中尤其在发展中国家此问题常被忽视. 本文统计分析了发展中城市居民出行调查中项目无回答的缺失模式,进一步分析项目无回答作为模型缺失数据对基于期望最大化的数据修补的多项Logit集计的出行方式选择模型的影响. 选择三个发展中城市代表调查无回答的三个等级做案例分析. 首先,根据项目无回答缺失模式,利用Pearson开方检验得出重要的出行者社会经济属性和出行背景因素. 其次,利用基于缺失模式分析的期望最大化估计,处理缺失数据得到无偏数据集作为基准. 此外,利用独立样本的T检验检验了零假设,即有无期望最大化估计情况下的模型参数估计是相同的. 用基于R平方系数的内在效度检验计算估计情况下的模型预测偏差. 最后,考虑缺失数据的影响,评估一个重要的指标——出行时间价值. 结果表明,在发展中城市,问卷回答者和不回答者的社会经济背景存在很大差异. 缺失率和缺失模式均对出行方式选择模型的参数和预测精度有很大影响. 考虑缺失模式的出行时间价值计算表明, 项目无回答对出行时间价值的影响被过高估计了.     

Effects of Item Nonresponses on the Performance of Travel Mode Choice Models for Developing Cities: A Comparative Analysis

To enhance the quality of transportation planning and policy making, it is necessary to properly deal with the nonresponse issues in transport surveys. However, such nonresponse issues especially in developing countries have been ignored in literature. This paper first statistically identifies the missing patterns of item nonresponse (INR) in person trip survey data collected in developing cities and then analyzes the effects of INR on the performance of travel mode choice model (an aggregated multinomial logit model) based on expectation-maximization (EM) imputation method. As a case study, three developing cities representing three levels of INR are analyzed as follow. Firstly, the statistically significant social-economic attributes of trip makers and trip-context factors are identified with respect to INR in the missing pattern analysis by using Chi-Square test method. Secondly, EM imputation based on missing pattern analysis is applied to deal with missing data to obtain the unbiased data set as a benchmark. Thirdly, the null hypothesis that the model parameters estimated with and without imputation are equal is statistically tested using independent-sample T tests and further the internal validity performed in terms of R-squared coefficients is used to identify the discrepancy of model predictions between with and without imputations. Finally, one critical indicator – value of travel time (VOTT) is evaluated considering the effects of missing data. The results confirm that the respondents and non-respondents are quite different in terms of the social-economic background in the developing cities and further show that not only the missing rates but also the missing patterns greatly affect the performance of mode choice model in terms of model parameters and the prediction ability. The calculation of VOTT reveals that the VOTT affected by INR tends to be overestimated.     

苏南发达地区中小城市步行系统规划体系研究——以江苏省常熟市为例

依托住房和城乡建设部“城市步行和自行车交通系统示范项目”,以常熟市步行交通调查分析为例,归纳总结苏南发达地区中小城市步行交通系统运行特征和基本问题,探索步行系统的规划体系、设计要点及改善方案.提出苏南发达地区中小城市步行系统规划体系框架.围绕宏观的特色化分区、中观的特色化单元、微观的特色化空间,连续的步行网络和步行通廊...     

国际公交发展模式分析与中国城市公交市场发展模式探讨

国际实践已经证明,公交行业引入市场竞争机制能够低成本地大幅提高公共交通的效率和服务质量,是解决城市公共交通问题并发展可持续交通的有效途径。该文通过对国际上目前存在的各种公交市场发展模式进行回顾性分析,并对适应于中国城市的公交发展模式进行探讨,对推行先进的、具有适应性的公交发展模式来改善公交服务,提高公共交通系统的整体水平方面提供相关研究。