川南山区公路深基坑施工安全风险评估案例研究

基于模糊层次分析法,对川南某山区公路在建项目的深基坑施工进行安全风险评估并作研究,其中一级指标包含5个因素,二级指标包含16个因素。通过邀请相关专家打分,获得评估数值,采用德尔菲法、层次分析法确定指标权重;之后用模糊综合评价法确定项目风险等级。结果表明,本工程基坑施工安全风险评定等级为风险较大,主要风险因素为:现场管理风险>施工作业风险>工程环境风险。     

基于EMD-VMD-LSTM预测算法的高桩码头结构安全预警方法*

基于高桩码头健康监测数据,针对存在复杂环境因素影响监测精度问题,提出EMD-VMD-LSTM组合算法处理并预测高桩码头结构中的监测信息,通过对比分析验证在高桩码头结构现场监测大数据的预测预警分析中采用EMD-VMD-LSTM 组合算法的可行性。同时,基于EMD-VMD-LSTM方法和固定预警阈值,提出动态预警阈值的确定方法,设计动静态预警结合的高桩码头结构预警方法,构建多指标、多层次的高桩码头结构安全预警体系以及相应的预警流程。研究成果可以提升高桩码头结构安全预警的准确性和效率,也可为类似工程结构的安全预警管理提供一定的参考。     

从JT/T 325-2006《营运客车类型划分及等级评定》谈商用客车的NVH

通过对JT/T 325-2006《营运客车类型划分及等级评定》的简要分析,提出在商用客车行业开展NVH工作的要点和方法。     

驾驶员可靠性评价中评估因子的遴选

驾驶员可靠性评估因子的选择是进行驾驶员可靠性评价的关键。本文首先进行驾驶员可靠性分析,找到驾驶员可靠性研究的特点,然后根据道路交通事故的发生原因得出驾驶员失误模式,最后使用专家判断隶属度的方法筛选出有效的驾驶员可靠性评估因子。     

普速铁路钢轨服役状态评估方法及应用效果

通过分析国内外换轨周期模式,提出了普速铁路在役钢轨服役状态评估方法和参数,建立了跟踪分析试验段。运用试验段数据统计分析了自上道以来的钢轨伤损与累计通过总质量的关系并掌握了钢轨打磨和使用情况。应用所提出的钢轨服役状态评估方法和参数将试验段原定换轨周期由累计通过总质量7亿t延长到累计通过总质量近10亿t,并分析了换轨周期延长后的经济效益。研究成果为钢轨使用和管理部门延长钢轨使用寿命提供了分析方法和范例。     

Investigation of environmental justice analysis in airport planning practice from 2000 to 2010

Municipal airport owners and the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) regularly evaluate capacity and demand to decide if and when airports need more infrastructure. New infrastructure can alter the profile of noise, emissions, and land use, which may affect the quality of life for airport-adjacent communities. When the FAA and airport owners initiate infrastructure expansion, they must conduct environmental justice analysis to measure the distribution of negative externalities on nearby communities. This research investigates the environmental justice methodologies and narratives reported in planning documents for nineteen airport capacity expansions planned or deployed from 2000 to 2010 in the United States. The mixed-methods approach analyzes airport operations data, spatial demographic data, and planning artifacts to determine whether the environmental justice analyses were robust. This research proposes alternative metrics, the ‘Risk of disproportionate impact’ and ‘Capacity strain’, to further contextualize the presence of protected population groups alongside capacity needs. The main finding of the study is that the planning documents did not consistently detect environmental justice impacts, nor did they consistently confer importance to those impacts when high proportions of protected populations were detected. As a result, the social costs of collective airport expansion are unclear and likely underestimated. This study identifies two limitations that undermined the environmental justice analysis throughout the airport sample: (1) inconsistent methodological choices impeded the detection of impacts and, (2) narrative interpretations tended to ‘null’ the finding even when impacts were detected.     

大连太平湾近岸海域环境承载力综合评价研究

海域水环境质量与承载力是生态环境保护与区域经济发展的重要前提条件。针对大连太平湾近岸海域,文章采用集对分析方法、人工神经网络方法和云理论方法,以研究海域32个站位的COD、无机氮、磷酸盐和石油类4个污染因子为承载力评价指标,重点分析太平湾近岸海域的水环境质量和承载力状况;并以不同时期实测资料,分析了太平湾港区工程建设与环境质量间的相互关系,以期为区域经济社会发展和生态环境保护提供基础支撑。     

基于改进可拓物元法的地铁车站运营安全评价方法

我国大中城市的地铁建设和运营已进入规模化、网络化阶段。地铁车站的安全运营是整个地铁系统运营安全的重要保障。对地铁车站运营安全风险因素进行梳理与凝练,科学合理地选取出风险评价指标,并采用综合赋权法确定指标权重系数,将德尔菲法、专家咨询法与可拓物元法相结合,提出了改进可拓物元法,提高了地铁车站运营安全风险评价的时效性和科学性。结合南京地铁大行宫站的实地调查数据,对模型进行实例验证,以说明实施步骤和应用效果。     

基于离差最大化的地铁车站踩踏风险评价

为有效评估地铁车站发生拥挤踩踏事故风险的大小,文章建立基于离差最大化的地铁车站拥挤踩踏风险评价模型。首先,建立地铁车站拥挤踩踏事故风险的评价指标;其次,利用离差最大化方法研究地铁车站拥挤踩踏事故风险评价指标的权重,并以此为基础,建立地铁车站拥挤踩踏事故风险评价方法;最后,利用离差最大化模型对地铁车站实测的数据进行分析及评价,并得到各车站拥挤踩踏事故风险的大小及排序。研究结果表明:基于离差最大化方法能够充分利用客观信息对车站拥挤踩踏事故风险的大小进行分析及评估,该方法具有可行性和有效性。     

Stress magnification effect of initial deformation on the notch stress field and fatigue strength of thin plate welded joints

Compared with thick plate welded joint, the welding joint of thin plate will produce initial deformation due to its low bending rigidity. The existence of initial deformation will cause the welded structure to produce secondary bending effect, which will produce greater stress magnification effect at the weld toe and seriously affect the fatigue strength of thin plate welded joints. Therefore, based on the correction formula of thick plate, considering the influence of initial deformation and geometric nonlinearity of thin plate, this paper deduces the stress magnification factor formula at the weld toe of T-shaped and cruciform specimens. The accuracy of the revised formula is further verified by comparing the notch stress calculated by the modified formula with the FE results. Finally, the modified formula is applied to the notch stress and fatigue evaluation of typical thin plate welded joints respectively. The results show that the proposed notch stress calculation formula can fully consider the stress amplification effect of thin plate structure, and can be used to quickly evaluate the notch stress field and fatigue strength of thin plate welded joints.