基于层次分析法的交通运输节能减排示范项目绩效评价研究

交通运输是国家节能减排工作的重点领域,为促进交通运输节能减排技术发展,开展交通运输节能减排示范项目是政府部门一项重要的政策措施。对示范项目进行绩效评价工作能衡量财政资金投入政策实施效果,也是交通运输主管部门非常关注的问题。在交通运输节能减排示范项目绩效评价的逻辑框架下,运用层次分析法建立交通运输节能减排示范项目绩效评价指标体系及权重值,具有较好的实操性,能为开展同类型项目的绩效评价工作提供参考。     

Benefit of speed reduction for ships in different weather conditions

Currently, the shipping industry is facing a great challenge of reducing emissions. Reducing ship speeds will reduce the emissions in the immediate future with no additional infrastructure. However, a detailed investigation is required to verify the claim that a 10% speed reduction would lead to 19% fuel savings (Faber et al., 2012).This paper investigates fuel savings due to speed reduction using detailed modeling of ship performance. Three container ships, two bulk carriers, and one tanker, representative of the shipping fleet, have been designed. Voyages have been simulated by modeling calm water resistance, wave resistance, propulsion efficiency, and engine limits. Six ships have been simulated in various weather conditions at different speeds. Potential fuel savings have been estimated for a range of speed reductions in realistic weather.It is concluded that the common assumption of cubic speed-power relation can cause a significant error in the estimation of bunker consumption. Simulations in different seasons have revealed that fuel savings due to speed reduction are highly weather dependent. Therefore, a simple way to include the effect of weather in shipping transport models has been proposed.Speed reduction can lead to an increase in the number of ships to fulfill the transport demand. Therefore, the emission reduction potential of speed reduction strategy, after accounting for the additional ships, has been studied. Surprisingly, when the speed is reduced by 30%, fuel savings vary from 2% to 45% depending on ship type, size and weather conditions. Fuel savings further reduce when the auxiliary engines are considered.     

Using GPS-data to determine optimum electric vehicle ranges: A Michigan case study

Fuel-switching personal transportation from gasoline to electricity offers many advantages, including lower noise, zero local air pollution, and petroleum-independence. But alleviations of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are more nuanced, due to many factors, including the car’s battery range. We use GPS-based trip data to determine use type-specific, GHG-optimized ranges. The dataset comprises 412 cars and 384,869 individual trips in Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA. We use previously developed algorithms to determine driver types, such as using the car to commute or not. Calibrating an existing life cycle GHG model to a forecast, low-carbon grid for Ann Arbor, we find that the optimum range varies not only with the drive train architecture (plugin-hybrid versus battery-only) and charging technology (fast versus slow) but also with the driver type. Across the 108 scenarios we investigated, the range that yields lowest GHG varies from 65 km (55+ year old drivers, ultrafast charging, plugin-hybrid) to 158 km (16–34 year old drivers, overnight charging, battery-only). The optimum GHG reduction that electric cars offer – here conservatively measured versus gasoline-only hybrid cars – is fairly stable, between 29% (16–34 year old drivers, overnight charging, battery-only) and 46% (commuters, ultrafast charging, plugin-hybrid). The electrification of total distances is between 66% and 86%. However, if cars do not have the optimum range, these metrics drop substantially. We conclude that matching the range to drivers’ typical trip distances, charging technology, and drivetrain is a crucial pre-requisite for electric vehicles to achieve their highest potential to reduce GHG emissions in personal transportation.     

重型柴油车NOx排放远程监测准确性研究

文章通过采用不同浓度的反应剂来模拟重型国六柴油车正常状态、临界超标及SCR性能失效状态下的实际道路NOx排放,从而研究远程排放管理平台对超标车型识别的效果。试验结果表明,NOx临界超标与SCR完全失效状态下,远程排放管理平台采集的国六整车实际道路NOx排放与PEMS设备结果基本一致,而正常状态下,尿素过量喷射导致的NH3泄露会对车载NOx传感器精度造成影响,进而导致远程排放管理平台采集的国六整车NOx排放与PEMS设备存在偏差。     

Electric vehicles for greenhouse gas reduction in China: A cost-effectiveness analysis

There have been ongoing debates over whether battery electric vehicles contribute to reducing greenhouse gas emissions in China’s context, and if yes, whether the greenhouse gas emissions reduction compensates the cost increment. This study informs such debate by examining the life-cycle cost and greenhouse gas emissions of conventional vehicles, hybrid electric vehicles and battery electric vehicles, and comparing their cost-effectiveness for reducing greenhouse gas emissions. The results indicate that under a wide range of vehicle and driving configurations (range capacity, vehicle use intensity, etc.), battery electric vehicles contribute to reducing greenhouse gas emissions compared with conventional vehicles, although their current cost-effectiveness is not comparable with hybrid electric vehicles. Driven by grid mix optimization, power generation efficiency improvement, and battery cost reduction, the cost-effectiveness of battery electric vehicles is expected to improve significantly over the coming decade and surpass hybrid electric vehicles. However, considerable uncertainty exists due to the potential impacts from factors such as gasoline price. Based on the analysis, it is recommended that the deployment of battery electric vehicles should be prioritized in intensively-used fleets such as taxis to realize high cost-effectiveness. Technology improvements both in terms of power generation and vehicle electrification are essential in improving the cost-effectiveness of battery electric vehicles.     

Airline energy efficiency measures using the Virtual Frontier Network RAM with weak disposability

In this paper, airline energy efficiency is divided into three stages: the operations stage, the services stage and the sales stage. Greenhouse gas emissions are treated as an undesirable output of the services stage. This new three-stage strategic operating framework is a modification of existing models. A new model, Virtual Frontier Network Range Adjusted Measure with weak disposability, is proposed to evaluate the efficiencies of 22 international airlines, from 2008 to 2012. The results show that the new model can establish more reasonable rankings and confirm new benchmarking airlines and that inclusion in the European Union’s Emissions Trading Scheme has had little influence on the improvement of airline energy efficiency.     

Accelerated vehicle retirement program: Estimating the optimal incentive payment in Israel

The paper analyzes two main aspects of the accelerated vehicle retirement program in Israel: the optimal incentive payment of private cars, and the feasibility of expanding the program to include light commercial vehicles. The benefits are the reduction of pollutant emissions and safety benefits, which were compared to the costs of the incentive payment. A differential payment scheme for private vehicles according to the vehicle’s age, is shown to have a higher net benefit than a uniform payment scheme. It is also found that the optimal payment is higher than the existing incentive payment. Additionally, it is found economically feasible to include light commercial vehicles in the program.     

How do economies of density in container handling operations affect ships’ time and emissions in port? Evidence from Norwegian container terminals

Efficient port services are prerequisites for competitive and sustainable maritime transports. This paper makes advances in studying the determinants of the time that ships spend in port and the associated emissions to air. We estimate a production model for cargo handling based on a unique dataset containing each port of call at the largest container terminals in Norway in 2014. In turn, we use auxiliary engine emission factors to estimate particulate matter and nitrogen oxide emissions from ships at berth, to determine how the corresponding damage costs of air pollution vary with container throughput, location, and terminal investments. We find that Norwegian container terminals operate under increasing returns to density. Small ships that unload few containers are far from reaping economies of density, leading to high marginal time requirements for container handling and consequently high marginal external costs. From a Pigouvian taxation perspective, port charges should therefore be regressive in the number of containers handled. Moreover, we find that the external costs of maritime transports are severely understated when port operations are ignored. Our model allows determining the marginal productivities of port facilities. Thereby, it is instrumental in designing port charges that are diversified according to the quantity of containers handled and the service quality (i.e., the speed of handling operations). Regarding contextual factors, we find that establishing high-frequent liner services improves the ship working rate, while simultaneous calls at a terminal impede productivity. The type of container (loading/unloading; empty/laden) also appears to influence the duration of ship working.     

The effectiveness of a European speed limit versus an international bunker-levy to reduce CO2 emissions from container shipping

In the fight to reduce CO₂ emissions from international shipping, a bunker-levy is currently under consideration at the International Maritime Organization (IMO). Faced with the inability of the IMO to reach an agreement in the short term, the European Commission is now contemplating a unilateral measure of a speed limit for all ships entering European Union (EU) ports. This paper argues that this measure is counterproductive for two reasons. Firstly, because it may ultimately generate more emissions and incur a cost per ton of CO₂ which is more than society is willing to pay. Secondly, because it is sub-optimal compared to results obtained if an international bunker-levy was to be implemented. These elements are illustrated using two direct transatlantic services operated in 2010.     

Toxic air pollutants and trucking productivity in the US

This paper introduces toxic air pollutants into the measurement of trucking productivity to obtain true productivity growth. Our results show that omitting or ignoring toxic air pollutants in measuring trucking productivity yields statistically significant biased productivity estimates in for 2002-2005. Trucking productivity growth was understated by the traditional productivity measure, because the latter did not account for reductions in truck air pollution over time. We also find that the difference between traditional and environmental efficiency scores was negligible, suggesting that environmental constraint did not distort efficiency in the trucking sector.