Logit模型在广深铁路客流分担率估算中的应用

客流分担率估算的常用方法有分担率曲线法和函数模型法,通过比选决定采用函数模型法中的Logit模型。从旅客和社会需求的角度,对传统的Logit模型特征函数求解进行改进;以安全性、快捷性、票价水平、舒适度、开行间隔、方便性、服务水平和环境友好性等8个参数确定运输产品的效用值,代替传统的Logit模型求解特征函数值。在市场调查和参考专家建议的基础上,确定8个参数的效用值,利用改进的Logit模型,计算出在广深间旅客运输市场中铁路的需求分担率为46.7%,公路为53.3%。依据1999—2003年广深间实际客流量的变化情况,计算出铁路对总客运需求的满足率为18.8%,城际铁路对城际旅客运输需求的满足率为72.7%。可见,广深铁路还远远不能满足社会的客运需求。因此,铁路四线建设应该加速,运营组织模式应该改进。     

Utilization of passenger transport subsidy in Kolkata: A case study of Calcutta State Transport Corporation

The present study tries to see whether the subsidy given to CSTC, which is the oldest and the largest state transport corporation operating in and around Kolkata, is really being used to cover the losses they make over the years or to merely cover-up an inefficient performance. The state owned buses are required to serve, not only non-profitable routes in off-peak hours, but also to give social security or employment to a large section of society. The burden of carrying a huge staff structure and serving at an administered and less than competitive price for welfare reasons, makes CSTC liable to an operating loss. Therefore, it makes a case for subsidy. However, the regular commuters experience regarding the condition of and the services provided by these raises a question about the justification of subsidy. In the study it is seen that the subsidy given is not based on any of the components on which it should, economically.     

防泥沙VLCC压载水舱浑水水力模型试验研究

针对一款新型防泥沙VLCC压载舱设计方案开展浑水水力模型试验,重点研究了不同进水含沙粒径、不同含沙量、不同进水流量和不同进水模式对其沉沙效能的影响。经验证,该设计方案具有一定的防泥沙效能,且沉沙率受进水含沙的粒径级配影响较大,而受一定范围内含沙量的影响相对较小,较低的进水流量和间歇式进水模式有助于提高沉沙效能。     

玄武岩纤维材料在酸、碱性环境下的耐久性试验研究*

为了解玄武岩纤维本身的耐酸、耐碱性能,对其在80℃2 mol/L盐酸和氢氧化钠溶液中腐蚀不同周期后的质量变化、单丝强度进行了试验研究,并与聚丙烯纤维、耐碱玻璃纤维的耐酸碱性进行了对比。结果表明,在耐酸性能方面,玄武岩纤维最优,其次是聚丙烯纤维,耐碱玻璃纤维表现最差;在耐碱性能方面,表现优劣依次为聚丙烯纤维、玄武岩纤维和耐碱玻璃纤维。试验结果为玄武岩纤维新材料在水泥混凝土中的推广应用提供参考。     

ZVZCT-PWM SEPIC变换器的损耗分析

本文针对直流变换器的高损耗问题,对ZCZVT-PWM型SEPIC直流变换器进行了全面分析,对其损耗机理进行了定量计算,建立了器件级的损耗数学模型,为进一步研究该型电路拓扑的软开关技术和参数设计奠定了理论基础.     

热再生沥青混合料的疲劳特性研究

针对渝长高速公路废旧沥青混合料,对新拌沥青混合料AC-16和RAP掺量分别为10％,30％,50％的再生AC-16进行长期老化前后的间接拉伸疲劳试验.引入疲劳寿命比Nf(k/n)和疲劳寿命损失率F(k)的概念,对再生沥青混合料疲劳特性的变化规律进行了系统评价.试验结果表明:随RAP掺量的增加,再生沥青混合料的疲劳寿命比降低,且老化后的疲劳寿命比要小于老化前,且疲劳寿命损失率增加.     

港口工程钢筋混凝土结构性能退化模型研究

根据应力和氯离子共同作用下港口工程混凝土结构的性能退化机理,确定了描述结构性能退化的参数：以承载 力描述结构安全性退化,以刚度和纵向裂缝描述结构适用性退化。考虑了应力大小、持续时间和氯离子对结构性能的综合 影响,提出了港口工程钢筋混凝土结构钢筋锈蚀率计算模型。以钢筋锈蚀率为表征参数,通过理论分析和室内试验,建立 了港工钢筋混凝土结构承载力衰减模型、纵向裂缝开展模型和刚度退化模型。     

长江口北槽深水航道整治工程贮泥坑抛泥过程监测分析*

对北槽航道维护使用的3#贮泥坑抛泥流失率进行现场监测和分析研究。监测内容包括应用多波束地形测量仪测 得贮泥坑抛吹泥前后的准确容积变化,采用表层取样法测量贮泥坑抛泥后的表层泥沙密度及采用柱状采样器测量贮泥坑不 同深度的泥沙密度,综合容积变化和密度结果可以得到实际入坑泥沙量,结合实际抛泥量计算出贮泥坑的抛泥流失率。监 测结果表明该贮泥坑的抛泥流失率达到76%。同步监测的流速结果表明贮泥坑周边动力强、流速快,流速快是造成该贮泥 坑抛泥流失率大的主要原因。建议该坑向附近动力弱的坝田掩护区移动以减少该贮泥坑泥沙流失率。     

Capacity-constrained traffic forecasting model

Projecting future traffic is an important stage in any traffic and transportation planning study. Accurate traffic forecasting is vital for transportation planning, highway safety evaluation, traffic operations analysis, and geometric and pavement design among others. In view of its importance, this paper introduces a regression-based traffic forecasting methodology for a one dimensional capacity-constrained highway. Five different prediction functions are tested; the best was selected according to the accuracy of projections against historical traffic data. The three-parameter logistic function produced more accurate projections compared to other functions tested when highway capacity constraints were taken into consideration. The R ² values at various test locations ranged from 88% to 98%, indicating good prediction capability. Using the Fisher's information matrix approach, the t-statistic test showed all parameters in the logistic function were highly statistically significant. To evaluate reliability of projections, predictive intervals were calculated at a 95% level of confidence. Predictions using the logistic function were also compared to those predicted using the compound growth rate and linear regression methods. The results show that the proposed methodology generates much more reasonable projections than current practices.     

Modelling waiting time for passengers transferring from rail to buses

This paper develops a mathematical model to calculate the average waiting time for passengers transferring from rail transit to buses based on the statistical analysis of primary data collected in Beijing. An important part of the average waiting time modelling is to analyse the distributions of passenger arrival rates. It is shown that the lognormal and gamma distributions have the best fit for direct transfer and non-direct transfer passengers, respectively. Subsequently, an average waiting time model for transferring passengers is developed based on passenger arrival rate distributions. Furthermore, case studies are conducted for two scenarios with real and estimated data, resulting in relative errors of ?3.69% and ?3.77%, respectively. Finally, the paper analyses the impacts of bus headway, the headway of rail cars, and the proportion of direct transfer passengers on average waiting time.