论统计工作在高校人事管理中的作用

本文首先阐述了统计工作在高校人事管理中的意义,然后剖析了当前高校人事管理工作中统计作用降低的原因,并从提高认识、提高工作人员素质、完善人事统计指标和加强人事统计信息化建设等方面,提出了相关对策和建议。     

服装行业工人健康调查

服装行业的职业卫生正在引起人们的重视，现代化服装生产采取流水作业方式，由此造成了精神紧张和强迫体位等职业卫生问题影响了工人的健康。对北京市几个大型服装厂３５６名工人进行的体检结果表明，坐位工人主要是腰部疼痛、肩部酸痛及背部疼痛，站位作业主要是腰部疼痛、下肢胀痛及肩部酸痛，与对照组比较差异有显著性或高度显著性。根据本调查结果，神经衰弱症候群，肩、背、腰部酸痛，眼疲劳不适是服装作业工人的主要症状。     

执法路上 别忘了保护好自己——道路交通事故出警效率与安全“博弈”

随着我国道路交通事故致因和形态日渐复杂化和多样化,事故处理和救援对公安交管部门出警效率与安全提出了严峻考验。现有交通事故出警反应机制主要对出警任务进行了界定,缺乏影响安全的出警决策和指挥调度的内容,并且出警指挥平台和民警科技装备应用水平的限制,进一步影响了事故出警效率与安全。针对事故出警效率和安全问题,从法律制度、出警机制和出警智能化等层面提出了平衡策略,对预防事故现场二次事故和保障民警安全具有重要意义。     

基于分类决策树的城市内部迁居人群通勤时间预测模型

针对迁居个体长距离、长时间的通勤现象，以南京迁居人群通勤出行多源数据为基础，综合考虑迁居人群个人家庭属性、迁居属性、建成环境属性及通勤属性，建立迁居人群通勤时间多元线性回归模型，分析各属性对通勤时间的影响. 结合多元线性回归和Logistic 回归确定决策树模型入选变量和通勤时间离散值，利用C4.5 算法建立迁居人群通勤时间决策树，以决策树结构揭示不同背景下迁居个体通勤时间模式特征. 结果显示，相较于个人家庭属性，职住同区、通勤出发时刻、住房类型、通勤距离、通勤方式及社区至主干道的便捷程度对迁居个体通勤时长的影响更为显著，侧面反映社区微观建成环境优化政策更利于提升迁居个体通勤效率.     

城轨工程安全监测管理系统应用研究

针对当前城轨工程建设面临的安全管理需要,分析了城轨工程安全监测管理系统应用的不足,并结合安全监测管理的具体业务需求和业务数据流程,通过应用地理信息系统技术(GIS)和工作流技术(WorkFlow)设计了一种新的安全监测管理系统.实现了城轨工程的安全监测和自动预警功能,系统操作更加简单方便和直观形象.     

基于WBS-RBS法的城市轨道交通设备系统建设风险识别及对策

设备系统建设是城市轨道交通建设过程中的重要环节,对其进行风险识别和应对策略研究十分必要.本文采用WBS-RBS法找出城市轨道交通设备系统建设过程中的关键风险点,并有针对性地提出了风险应对策略,对其他类似工程项目的风险研究也有借鉴意义.     

The economics of parking provision for the morning commute

In this paper, we study the economics of parking provision for the morning commute, where all the parking lots are owned and operated by private operators. The parking capacity allocations, parking fees and access times are considered in a parking market. First we solve the parking market equilibrium without regulatory intervention, revealing four types of competitive equilibrium. Only one of the four types of equilibrium, however, is found to be stable and realistic, and under it each parking area is preferred by the commuters during certain time periods. Compared to the case without parking choice, provision of parking through a competitive market is able to reduce commuters’ travel cost and queuing delay, but it does not necessarily lead to the most desirable market outcome that minimizes social cost or commuter cost. This issue can be addressed through market regulations, such as price-ceiling, capacity-floor or capacity-ceiling, and a quantity tax/subsidy regulation. It is found that both price-ceiling and quantity tax/subsidy regulations can efficiently reduce both the system cost and commuter cost under certain conditions, and help ensure the stability of the parking market. Numerical examples are also provided to illustrate these findings and furthermore, how a price ceiling or a quantity tax/subsidy should be set in a parking market under realistic model parameters.     

Modeling speed-flow relationship and merging behavior in work zone merging areas

This paper aims to investigate the speed-flow relationship and drivers’ merging behavior in work zone merging areas. It first proposes lane-based speed-flow models, incorporating traffic conflicts among the lanes. It proceeds to develop a desired merging location model determining where drivers start to consider merging and a binary logit model that is applied to estimate the probabilities that drivers will merge into current adjacent gaps. A merging distance model is also proposed to find the 85th percentile of the merging distance. Finally, real work zone traffic data in Singapore are used to calibrate and evaluate the developed models. The findings show that the speed-flow relationship in the through lane is affected by the merge lane traffic under uncongested circumstances. Satisfactory results indicate that the merging behavioral models can competently predict drivers’ merging behavior and that the merging distance model could provide accurate information for traffic engineers to calculate the merge lane length.     

Applying a structured simulation-based methodology to assess carpooling time–space potential

Abstract

Increasing urban traffic congestion calls for the study of alternative measures. One such measure is carpooling, a system in which a person shares his private vehicle with one or more people in a commuter trip. In principle, this system could lead to potentially significant reductions in the use of private vehicles; however, in practice it has achieved limited success. In this paper, we apply a simulation-based methodology that uses aggregated data from commuter trips in an urban area to create compatible and feasible random trips. These are then analyzed through a heuristic process recursively to find grouping possibilities, thus producing indicators of carpooling potential such as the percentage of matched trips. Using this methodology, simulations are run for the Lisbon Metropolitan Area (Portugal) and results show that an increase in the number of participants in a carpooling scheme will only increase the probability of matching up to a certain point, and that this probability varies significantly with time–space trip attributes.