Forecasting container throughput based on wavelet transforms within a decomposition-ensemble methodology: a case study of China

To improve predictive accuracy, new hybrid models are proposed for container throughput forecasting based on wavelet transforms and data characteristic analysis (DCA) within a decomposition-ensemble methodology. Because of the complexity and nonlinearity of the time series of container throughputs at ports, the methodology decomposes the original time series into several components, which are rather simpler sub-sequences. Consequently, difficult forecasting tasks are simplified into a number of relatively easier subtasks. In this way, the proposed hybrid models can improve the accuracy of forecasting significantly. In the methodology, four main steps are involved: data decomposition, component reconstruction based on the DCA, individual prediction for each reconstructed component, and ensemble prediction as the final output. An empirical analysis was conducted for illustration and verification purposes by using time series of container throughputs at three main ports in Bohai Rim, China. The results suggest that the proposed hybrid models are able to forecast better than do other benchmark models. Forecasting may facilitate effective real-time decision making for strategic management and policy drafting. Predictions of container throughput can help port managers make tactical and operational decisions, such as operations planning in ports, the scheduling of port equipment, and route optimization.     

波浪中过度加速度的非线性时域预报

国际海事组织(IMO)船舶设计建造分委会(SDC)第4次会议把过度加速度稳性直接评估的制定提上议程。然而,如何准确预报和评估波浪中的过度加速度依然是一个亟待解决的问题。文章针对此挑战,采用三维时域混合源法进行了波浪中过度加速度的直接预报和评估。首先,采用三维时域混合源法,建立了波浪中船舶大幅横摇运动和船体任意位置处横向加速度的非线性时域预报方法;其次,以4000TEU集装箱船为研究对象,开展规则波和不规则波中的大幅运动模型试验,对计算方法进行验证;然后,对比分析了3DOF(垂荡—纵摇—横摇)和4DOF(横荡—垂荡—纵摇—横摇)耦合数学模型的计算精度;最后,分析了船体横向加速度的影响因素。研究表明,考虑横荡影响的4DOF数学模型计算精度较高;数值计算结果和模型试验结果吻合良好,证明文中建立的非线性时域方法可有效预报波浪中的过度加速度,可用于IMO过度加速度衡准的制定,也可为船舶设计提供评估手段。此外,文中还研究了IMO薄弱性衡准草案中中国和德国联合提出的加速度简化计算方法的适用性,证明该简化计算方法具有一定的保守性,符合衡准的要求,可用于过度加速度薄弱性衡准计算。     

重庆鱼洞长江特大桥地震反应分析

以重庆鱼洞长江大桥为研究对象,建立了大跨度高墩连续刚构桥的空间计算模型,考虑群桩与桩土效应,分析其动力特性,并运用反应谱法与时程分析法计算了一致激励及下大跨连续刚构的地震响应。分析结果表明:该桥动力特性符合设计要求,其横向地震响应比纵向大,具有良好的抗震性能。     

车速传感器试验台的系统开发

设计了ABS车速传感器试验台,分析设计结构及其车速传感器所采集的信号调理电路并与微机进行实时的通信,实时监测车速传感器的性能参数,开发了数据采集系统进行数据分析处理。研究表明该系统性能稳定,抗干扰能力强,为车速传感器测试提供了方便。     

效率评定在客车标准作业时间制定中的应用

介绍效率评定的概念,阐述效率评定在客车标准作业时间制定实践中的应用。     

时程分析法在大蒲春河特大桥主桥抗震验算中的应用

采用时程分析法对大蒲春河特大桥进行抗震分析,对主桥控制部位E1概率和E2概率地震作用下的响应进行验算,并利用验算结果指导该桥的抗震设计.     

长益常城际铁路速度目标值的选择

速度目标值是城际铁路设计时的核心指标,在选取时主要以适应客流需求、与区域其他交通运输方式相协调、与沿线社会经济发展相适应为原则,体现有利于吸引客流、减少工程投资和运营成本的效益最大化原则。速度目标值的选择主要通过本线客流特点、时间目标值的选择和具体多个速度目标值的比选得出。文中以长沙—益阳—常德速度目标值的选择为例,阐述铁路设计中客运专线速度目标值的选择方式和方法。     

军事应用活动仿真建模研究

针对应用活动视图的不足,按照能力需求的分析思路,结合能力模型特点,提出了一种对应用活动视图规范化建模的方法,以详细描述能力模型的动态行为。同时,利用BNF将模型定义为XML格式文档,使模型文件具有良好的可读性、扩展性和重用性,并可以方便地向仿真模型实例转化,有利于实现模型可执行仿真。     

Bus congestion, optimal infrastructure investment and the choice of a fare collection system in dedicated bus corridors

Microeconomic optimisation of scheduled public transport operations has traditionally focused on finding optimal values for the frequency of service, capacity of vehicles, number of lines and distance between stops. In addition, however, there exist other elements in the system that present a trade-off between the interests of users and operators that have not received attention in the literature, such as the optimal selection of a fare payment system and a designed running speed (i.e., the cruising speed that buses maintain in between two consecutive stops). Alternative fare payment methods (e.g., on-board and off-board, payment by cash, magnetic strip or smart card) have different boarding times and capital costs, with the more efficient systems such as a contactless smart card imposing higher amounts of capital investment. Based on empirical data from several Bus Rapid Transit systems around the world, we also find that there is a positive relationship between infrastructure cost per kilometre and commercial speed (including stops), achieved by the buses, which we further postulate as a linear relationship between infrastructure investment and running speed. Given this context, we develop a microeconomic model for the operation of a bus corridor that minimises total cost (users and operator) and has five decision variables: frequency, capacity of vehicles, station spacing, fare payment system and running speed, thus extending the traditional framework. Congestion, induced by bus frequency, plays an important role in the design of the system, as queues develop behind high demand bus stops when the frequency is high. We show that (i) an off-board fare payment system is the most cost effective in the majority of circumstances; (ii) bus congestion results in decreased frequency while fare and bus capacity increase, and (iii) the optimal running speed grows with the logarithm of demand.     

隧道开挖中的应力旋转和裂隙塑性变形问题研究

通过对隧道开挖过程进行三维数值模拟,分析了隧道开挖过程中主应力方向的旋转变化,研究了主应力旋转与隧道裂隙塑性变形的关系,验证了"考虑应力主轴旋转的广义塑性原理"的正确性,并将数值模拟结果和相关试验成果进行了对比,得出了一致性的结论。研究结果表明,应力旋转基本在隧道开挖前后10 m左右的距离内完成,隧道开挖过程中的应力旋转可以引起裂隙塑性变形的突变,且对竖向和斜向裂隙的影响较大;可以根据应力旋转的变化规律合理地选择支护时机,依据应力旋转对裂隙的影响对隧道的重点部位进行超前加固。