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A mathematical model was used to simulate monthly responses of the Gulf of Mexico hypoxia to variations in climate and anthropogenic nutrient loading over a 45-year period. We examined six hypothetical future scenarios that are based on observed and projected changes in the Mississippi River discharge, Mississippi River nitrate concentrations, and ambient water temperatures. In particular, we investigated the implications of a 30% decrease in the Mississippi River nitrogen flux, which was recently proposed by the Mississippi River Watershed/Gulf of Mexico Hypoxia Task Force as a measure to reduce the size of the hypoxic zone. Model simulations suggest that the frequency of hypoxia in the northern Gulf of Mexico is highly sensitive to variations in riverine nitrate flux, but also to variations in freshwater discharge and ambient water temperatures. A 30% decrease in the Mississippi River nitrate flux, for example, would reduce the frequency of hypoxia by 37%. Nevertheless, a 20% increase the Mississippi River discharge, which may occur under some climate change scenarios, would produce an increase in the frequency of hypoxia of the same magnitude. Thus, if the potential climatic variations are taken into account, a 30% decrease in the nitrogen flux of the Mississippi River may not be sufficient to accomplish the proposed hypoxia management goal. 相似文献
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介绍使用Pro/E与ADAMS建立船用蓄电池保养装置中旋盖机构的虚拟样机方法,建立三维模型样机并进行了运动仿真分析。分析过程中使用参数化设计方法得到适合机构运动要求的零件参数,为旋盖机构和安装平台的整体设计提供了理论依据。 相似文献
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Numerical artifacts can limit accurate simulation of turbulent particle motion when Lagrangian particle-tracking models are implemented in hydrodynamic models with stratified conditions like fronts. Yet, modeling of individual particle motion in frontal regions is critical for understanding sediment dynamics as well as the transport and retention of planktonic organisms. The objective of this research was to develop a numerical technique to accurately simulate turbulent particle motions in a particle-tracking model embedded within a hydrodynamic model of a frontal zone. A new interpolation scheme, the ‘water column profile’ scheme, was developed and used to implement a random displacement model for turbulent particle motions. A new interpolation scheme was necessary because linear interpolation schemes caused artificial aggregation of particles where abrupt changes in vertical diffusivity occurred. The new ‘water column profile’ scheme was used to fit a continuous function (a tension spline) to a smoothed profile of vertical diffusivities at the x–y particle location. The new implementation scheme was checked for artifacts and compared with a standard random walk model using (1) Well Mixed Condition tests, and (2) dye-release experiments. The Well Mixed Condition tests confirmed that the use of the ‘water column profile’ interpolation scheme for implementing the random displacement model significantly reduced numerical artifacts. In dye-release experiments, high concentrations of Eulerian tracer and Lagrangian particles were released at the same location up-estuary of the salt front and tracked for 4 days. After small differences in initial dispersal rates, tracer and particle distributions remained highly correlated (r = 0.84 to 0.99) when a random displacement model was implemented in the particle-tracking model. In contrast, correlation coefficients were substantially lower (r = 0.07 to 0.58) when a random walk model was implemented. In general, model performance tests indicated that the ‘water column interpolation’ scheme was an effective technique for implementing a random displacement model within a hydrodynamic model, and both could be used to accurately simulate diffusion in a highly baroclinic frontal region. The new implementation scheme has the potential to be a useful tool for investigating the influence of hydrodynamic variability on the transport of sediment particles and planktonic organisms in frontal zones. 相似文献
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以线性和非线性需求结合方式建立了以满足任务需要为条件的海警大型舰艇基本需求组合模型,预测计算了多个样本国海警大型舰艇基本需求数,结果表明该模型有一定的实用性.据此对中国海警大型舰艇基本需求进行预测,预测结果可对中国海警大型舰艇发展规划提供参考. 相似文献