Clockwise hysteresis loops in the Macroscopic Fundamental Diagram: An effect of network instability

A recent study reported that the Macroscopic Fundamental Diagram of a medium size city exhibited a clockwise hysteresis loop on a day in which a major disturbance caused many drivers to use unfamiliar routes. It is shown below that, even in a perfectly symmetric network with uniform demand, clockwise loops are to be expected when there are disturbances, especially if the disturbances cause a significant fraction of the drivers to not change routes adaptively. It is also shown that when drivers are not adaptive networks are inherently more unstable as they recover from congestion than as they are loaded. In other words, during recovery congestion tends more strongly toward unevenness because very congested areas clear more slowly than less congested areas. Since it is known that uneven congestion distributions reduce network flows, it follows that lower network flows should arise during recovery, resulting in clockwise loops. Fortunately, the presence of a sufficient number of drivers that choose routes adaptively to avoid congested areas helps to even out congestion during recovery, increasing flow. Thus, clockwise loops are less likely to occur when driver adaptivity is high.     

Much Ado about Nothing? - An analysis of economic impacts and ecologic effects of the EU-emission trading scheme in the aviation industry

From 2012 on, all CO₂ emissions from flights departing from or arriving at airports within the European Union have to be offset. We analyze the economic and ecological impacts that are caused by an inclusion of the aviation industry into the proposed emissions trading scheme (ETS). Building on the now fixed system design we employ a simulation model to estimate the impacts of the scheme. Our results indicate that financial impacts are highly dependant on external settings, such as allowance prices and demand growth. We show that the financial burden on the aviation industry will be rather modest in the first years after the introduction of the system and therefore induce only low competition distortions. Likewise, emission reductions within air transportation will be comparably low. While aviation will induce a decline of emissions in other sectors, significant absolute reductions within air transportation can only be reached by a more restrictive system design.     

Real time queue length estimation for signalized intersections using travel times from mobile sensors

We study how to estimate real time queue lengths at signalized intersections using intersection travel times collected from mobile traffic sensors. The estimation is based on the observation that critical pattern changes of intersection travel times or delays, such as the discontinuities (i.e., sudden and dramatic increases in travel times) and non-smoothness (i.e., changes of slopes of travel times), indicate signal timing or queue length changes. By detecting these critical points in intersection travel times or delays, the real time queue length can be re-constructed. We first introduce the concept of Queue Rear No-delay Arrival Time which is related to the non-smoothness of queuing delay patterns and queue length changes. We then show how measured intersection travel times from mobile sensors can be processed to generate sample vehicle queuing delays. Under the uniform arrival assumption, the queuing delays reduce linearly within a cycle. The delay pattern can be estimated by a linear fitting method using sample queuing delays. Queue Rear No-delay Arrival Time can then be obtained from the delay pattern, and be used to estimate the maximum and minimum queue lengths of a cycle, based on which the real-time queue length curve can also be constructed. The model and algorithm are tested in a field experiment and in simulation.     

小城镇道路交通安全管理规划研究

通过分析我国小城城镇特点及其交通安全面临的问题,并结合交通安全规划的理论,提出小城镇道路交通安全规划的具体原则和内容,具有一定的理论和实际意义。     

公路平面交叉口交通组织设计

交叉口是道路系统的重要组成部分,既是道路交通的咽喉,但也是"瓶颈"。存在行车速度低、事故率高、交通拥挤甚至交通堵塞等弊病。针对交叉口交通事故的严重性,提出进行交通组织设计的必要性。主要介绍了3种交通组织方法:设置专用车道、左转弯车辆的交通组织、组织渠化交通。并结合具体设计实例对交通组织设计进行进一步的分析和阐明。     

城市交通拥堵分析及对策研究

从宏观、中观、微观层次分析导致城市拥堵的原因,倡导可持续的城市交通发展政策,以交通管理、交通供给、交通需求为出发点,提出深化交通体制改革与加强智能信息管理,增加道路有效供给与提升停车管理,构建快速公交系统与加强汽车需求管理,并结合土地利用、城市规划与交通建设协调发展提出建议。     

两种短时交通流混沌预测方法分析

短时交通流预测是智能交通系统的核心内容和交通信息服务、交通诱导的重要基础。采用符合交通流特性的混沌理论对短期交通流进行预测。在相空间重构和混沌识别的基础上,建立短期交通流加权一阶局域预测模型和基于最大Lyapunov指数的预测模型,并对一组实际的交通流数据进行预测。仿真结果表明:两种方法都能较准确的预测交通流,但最大Lyapunov指数预测模型的预测精度相对较高。     

平面交叉口渠化设计方法研究

平面交叉口交通组织优化是缓解大城市交通拥堵的关键.针对北京市交叉口渠化问题,总结阐述平面交叉口的典型渠化设计问题及相应措施,以HCM中交叉口通行能力计算流程为基础,结合北京市某大型交叉口调研数据,利用VISSIM软件构建交叉口仿真模型,并对比分析改善措施实施前后相关交通运行评价参数.仿真分析表明,通过移除占路线杆,并渠...     

典型客流密集区的非机动车停放组织优化方法研究

机非混行是我国道路交通的一大特性,非机动车在城市交通中的地位不容忽视.本研究主要关注在典型的客流密集区的非机动车停放管理,其中典型地点如城市轨道交通换乘枢纽、公园、医院等公共服务性较强的客流发生吸引源.通过总结客流密集区的非机动车停放存在的问题,提出对应的可实施措施.在北京市城铁五道口附近非机动车停放改善中,通过设置双...