基于链路预测的中小机场连接机制研究

以中小机场航线网络为研究对象，利用链路预测理论与评价方法，从网络外生属性与内生因素角度各自建立了4种预测接近性指标，比较各指标的预测效果，并进一步设计出3种耦合接近性预测算法，选取预测精度最好的算法预测中小机场未来新增航线，并对预测结果进行实际检验。结果显示，4种内生因素指标的预测精确度均高于除起降架次以外的外生属性指标，其中局部路径(Local Path，LP)指标的预测精确度最高，挖掘网络内部的结构信息更有利于预测网络连接情况，耦合算法的预测效果优于单个指标。基于耦合算法的预测结果与未来新增航线对比发现， 预测的中小机场航线在未来新增航线中占比高于1/3，预测航线主要集中在东部地区，多数中小 机场依然会选择中心城市连接，结果较为符合中小机场实际连接情况。     

Will China’s airline industry survive the entry of high-speed rail?

This study investigates the effects of high-speed rail (HSR) services on Chinese airlines. Our analysis suggests that the HSR service will be competitive in terms of network connectivity, total travel time and cost efficiency. On the other hand, growth of the Chinese airline industry has been unbalanced in terms of traffic distribution, airline network development, airport capacity and share of international traffic. While the long term prospects of Chinese airlines are bright, the carriers must develop effective hub-and-spoke networks and increase their competitiveness in international markets in order to achieve sustainable growth in the coming years. For the Chinese government, continued investment at hub airports and support to low-cost carriers are also necessary.     

The introduction of innovation in Urban transport

More than 200 new systems of transport have been proposed as solutions to problems of urban congestion. However, very few of these have reached even the prototype stage and practically none at all have ever actually been installed.

The author asks himself why this is so. If an invention is to be introduced into a field which is poorly receptive to innovation, it must not only bring something really new and attractive for the users on the functional level as opposed merely to the technological level, but must also consider the political, industrial, social and human context.

The author gives two examples of innovation conceived and developed at the Battelle Geneva Research Centre: one for private transport, a new system for an electric car which will include the interests of the petrol industry, and the other for public transport, the “Speedaway” sponsored by Dunlop Limited. These two systems will be put on the market shortly and will attempt to fulfill the criteria mentioned above.     

Market power and its determinants in the Chinese airline industry

This paper first measures the degree of Chinese airlines’ market power by using Lerner index, and then investigates its determinants. Our empirical results show that a certain degree of market power exists in the Chinese airline industry. Of the three dominant carriers, Air China exhibits the strongest market power whereas China Eastern Airlines the weakest, with China Southern Airlines being in the middle. Furthermore, the extent of market power varies significantly among regional markets, with China’s northeast region as the strongest, followed by the eastern and western regions, and the central area as the weakest. We also find a hub-premium effect similar to the result found in the US airline market. Our analysis shows that the existence of high-speed rail and low-cost carriers, income level, population size, seasonality, and number of competing airlines are the main determinants of competition in the Chinese airline market.     

The airline perturbation problem: considering disrupted passengers

Abstract

When airlines are faced with some unforeseen short-term events, they have to reconstruct their flight schedules. Although aircraft recovery decisions affect passengers, these disrupted passengers and recovering them have not been explicitly considered in most previous aircraft recovery models. This paper presents an assignment model for airline schedule recovery which recovers both aircraft and disrupted passengers simultaneously, using a rolling horizon time framework. Our model examines possible flight retiming, aircraft swapping, over-flying, ferrying, utilization of reserve aircraft, cancellation and passenger reassignment to generate an efficient schedule recovery plan. The model ensures that the schedule returns to normal within a certain time and the objective is to minimize operational recovery aircraft cost, cancellation and delay cost as well as disrupted passenger cost. The model is tested using a data-set with two disruption scenarios. The computational results show that it is capable of handling the integrated aircraft and passenger recovery problem successfully.     

A competitive, charter air-service planning model for student athlete travel

This paper presents a model for planning an air charter service for pre-scheduled group travel. This model is used to investigate the competitiveness of such an enterprise for student athlete travel in conference sports. The relevant demand subset to be served by a limited charter fleet is identified through a comparison with existing scheduled travel options. Further, the routing and scheduling of the charter aircraft is performed within the same framework. Through this modeling a method for formulating and accommodating continuous time windows and competitive market dynamics in strategic planning for a charter service is developed. Computational improvements to the basic model are also presented and tested. The model is applied to the Big Sky Conference for the 2006-2007 season, quantifying the benefits to the students from such a service and the change in expenditure associated with such a benefit for various assumptions about operations and value of time. The findings indicate the lack of spatial or sport based patterns for maximizing benefit, indicating the absence of simplistic “rules of thumb” for operating such a service, and validating the need for the model.     

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提高航线需求预测精度是航空客运收益管理系统的重要研究课题。提出一种首先运用EM算法对航线历史订座数据中由于受资源限制而没有被满足的需求进行修复，取得更为准确的需求数据，然后，针对航班销售具有提前预订的特点，将航线历史订座数据整合成一个提前日矩阵，使预测时能够利用更多的已知信息并减少了计算数据量，最后再运用Winters模型进行预测的航线需求预测方法。以成都到广州航线历史数据为例仿真计算，预测结果的平均误差为4.9％ ，而直接采用winters法进行预测的平均误差为21.7％ ，验证了算法的可行性和有效性。     

浅析政府对航空公司新开航线资金补贴

江苏省航空产业发展滞后,为鼓励和吸引航空公司到江苏开辟新航线,提高航空运输规模,江苏省政府应资金扶持。文章分析了航空公司新开一条航线所要花费的主要运营成本以及可获得收入的主要来源,接着对航空公司开辟的新航线进行了分类,根据不同类型的新开航线,假定采用参考机型,结合目前江苏省航线机票价格,以盈亏平衡为计算标准,适当考虑调动航空公司开辟新航线积极性,测算出政府对每条不同类型航线资金补贴范围。最后,建议江苏省政府应设立航空产业发展专项资金。     

Robust Optimization of Hub-and-Spoke Airline Network Design Based on Multi-Objective Genetic Algorithm

In the process of designing hub network, the selection of hub airports is influenced by the change of the demand and cost. Under the condition of changing in demand, this may lead to large minimum cost deviation between the designed optimal network and real optimal network, respectively. To reduce the risk caused by the uncertainty in network optimization and get the optimal robust solution of hub network under the multi-possible conditions of demand and cost, a method based on multi-objective optimization genetic algorithm is proposed in this paper. The convergence of the algorithm has been proved, and the experimental results demonstrate the availability of the algorithm. First, multiple objective functions needing to be optimized simultaneously are formulated from different conditions of needs and cost, then a genetic algorithm is used to provide all possible routes of the network hub structure, and robust optimal network solution for multi-objective optimization is searched. The convergence of the search algorithms is proved to be effective by the numerical results.     

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在枢纽式航线网络蓬勃发展的背景下,蛛网式航线网络作为一种新兴的网络结构,它的出现引起了国内外的广泛关注.针对蛛网式航线网络的要素进行了深入分析,从减少非必要的中转的角度出发,提出旅客时间价值系数的概念,将航空公司的运输成本和旅客时间价值作为总效用,设计出蛛网式航线网络效用模型.通过使用该模型,可以设计出蛛网式航线网络并分析其每条航线的竞争力.基于该模型对于每条起讫节点流（Origin Destination, OD流）可分解的性质,提出了基于效用理论的最短路径算法,利用我国15城市数据建立了蛛网式航线网络模型实例.求解的结果表明,旅客时间价值系数对蛛网式航线网络以及蛛网式航线网络的竞争力的影响.