航空公司动态价格竞争复杂性与延迟反馈控制

为深入研究航空公司动态价格竞争的复杂性及延迟反馈控制方法的有效性, 综合运用有限理性决策理论与非线性动力学理论,构建航空公司动态价格竞争博弈模 型,分析航空公司复杂的动力学行为,研究针对系统变量、系统参数的两类延迟反馈控制 方法的有效性与差异性.研究结果表明,航空公司价格调整速度对模型的复杂性有显著影 响;选取合适的控制因子,两类延迟反馈控制方法都能对陷入混沌的动态价格竞争模型 实施有效地混沌控制;两类延迟反馈控制方法在控制因子取值范围、收敛速度等方面存 有显著差异;控制因子取值对系统的收敛速度呈规律性影响趋势.     

Solving airlines disruption by considering aircraft and crew recovery simultaneously

When disruptions occur, the airlines have to recover from the disrupted schedule. The recovery usually consists of aircraft recovery, crew recovery and passengers’ recovery. This paper focuses on the integrated recovery, which means above-mentioned two or more recoveries are considered as a whole. Taking the minimization of the total cost of assignment, cancellation and delay as an objective, we present a more practical model, in which the maintenance and the union regulations are considered. Then we present a so-called iterative tree growing with node combination method. By aggregating nodes, the possibility of routings is greatly simplified, and the computation time is greatly decreased. By adjusting the consolidating range, the computation time can be controlled in a reasonable time. Finally, we use data from a main Chinese airline to test the algorithm. The experimental results show that this method could be used in the integrated recovery problem.     

碳排放约束下我国航空公司全要素生产率研究

为研究碳排放约束下的我国航空公司全要素生产率及其影响因素,本文以CO₂排放为非期望产出,运用Global Malmquist Luenberger指数分析了我国航空公司 2009-2013年的全要素生产率及其动态变化,在此基础上运用面板数据模型对其影响因素进行了分析.研究表明：忽略CO₂的排放会明显高估我国航空公司全要素生产率的增长水平;我国航空公司全要素生产率的增长主要来源于技术效率改善的驱动;碳排放约束下的全要素生产率增长与吨公里油耗量呈显著负相关关系,提高燃油效率是促进其增长最显著有效的手段;另外,飞机利用率对全要素生产率的增长存在积极影响,总飞行班次对其存在消极作用,而平均航段距离和公司民营属性对其增长并不存在显著影响.     

昆明国际航空运输市场分析

通过对近两年昆明机场各国际航线的日均客流量、日均座位数投放水平、平均客座率、班均人数、班均座位数等生产数据的统计分析,按地理区域对昆明国际航线市场进行了细分,研究了各国际航线细分市场的结构特征和发展趋势。分析表明传统的"新马泰"东南亚航线仍是市场的主体,以深度度假游为特征的旅游航线极具增长潜力,但存在航线平均客座率水平不高,机型座级与市场需求不匹配等问题。     

城市交叉口群信号协调控制范围动态划分方法

考虑交叉口群交通关联特征,本文提出了交叉口群信号协调控制范围动态划分 方法.为响应实时交通需求,采用交叉口通行能力利用率指标识别道路网络中的瓶颈区 域.根据协调系数与不均衡系数两类路段关联度指标,搜索瓶颈区域的影响范围.应用自 组织映射神经网络,作为路段关联度“强”与“弱”的临界划分工具.使用二分法逐步缩小搜 索范围,断开关联度较弱的路段连接,在余下的连通网络中继续分类直到满足交叉口群 协调控制规模约束的大小为止.仿真结果表明,交叉口群范围的合理划分有助于提高路网 信号协调控制的效率.     

The meaning of car availability in mode choice decisions

The paper examines various definitions of car availability that have been used in the literature, and compares the results when applied to a common data set. It argues that car availability means different things to different people depending on their licence holding/car owning status. Using in‐depth interview data, the factors determining car allocation and transferability within a household, and subsequently mode choice, are discussed. An attempt is made to draw some general conclusions for research and modelling. This suggests that different approaches are required depending on whether or not there is competition for use of the car within a household. Also that in cases of competition, mode choice is not a two‐stage process depending on car availability and trip characteristics, but a concurrent decision based on both of these factors.     

Strategy-Based Forecasting Model for Civil Airlines

Airlines usually pay more attention tO maintenance cost for efficiency improvement and consumption reduction．However，airlines，especially the domestic airlines，Can hardly predict the cost exactly due to the uncertainty and complexity until now．In practice，the cost is calculated by collecting and calculating the invoices afterwards．To settle the problem，a maintenance cost forecasting model is proposed in this paper．Maintenance activities are classified into scheduled maintenance and unscheduled maintenance．Scheduled maintenance is periodic，in which the required materials and man-power hours can be obtained properly in advance．Nevertheless，it is impossible to acquire the necessary in formation of unscheduled maintenance．According to the specific characteristics of each，Activity-Based Costing(ABC)and Cost Estimating Relationships(CERs)are introduced to attack the building of forecasting models，respectively．Then practical cases，the 3C check of MD-90 and the engine shop visit are adopted tO verify the cost forecasting models proposed．The results show that the models not only can predict the actual maintenance cost successfully，but also are helpful tO drawing up the maintenance program and managing the maintenance funds efficiently．     

基于最优组合赋权的航空公司飞行安全风险评估

飞行安全风险评估是航空公司安全管理系统（SMS）建设的重要组成部分,国内外对飞行安全风险评估工作主要局限于对航空公司飞行系统安全的评价,而对飞行系统安全风险评估方面研究较少,且权重的确定多采用单一的客观赋权或主观赋权,存在一定的局限性。本文在风险评估矩阵的基础上,结合最优组合赋权法和模糊综合评判法,对飞行安全风险进行量化评估,建立飞行安全风险评估指标体系。通过最优组合赋权确定指标体系的权重,利用模糊评判法分别计算指标的风险可能性和严重度综合值,最终得到飞行安全风险评估值。示例计算验证了该方法的可行性、有效性和实用性,该评估方法可以为航空公司SMS建设提供决策支持和理论依据。     

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为深入分析航空公司动态价格竞争的复杂性,运用非线性动力学的分支理论,构建了基于差异化的航空公司动态价格竞争模型,依据动力学稳定性判定条件,讨论了该模型均衡点的存在性、存在个数与稳定性,数值仿真了不同条件下模型复杂的动力学行为.仿真结果表明,航空公司价格调整速度对模型的稳定性有明显的影响,一旦价格调整速度超过某一临界值,系统将表现出分岔、混沌等复杂的动力学现象;与Nash均衡利润相比,在混沌状态下航空公司的利润均显著下降;差异化战略对航空公司定价、利润有重要影响,保持和加强对竞争对手的差异化优势有助于自身获得更大的市场竞争优势.     

A slacks-based network DEA efficiency analysis of European airlines

Conventional data envelopment analysis (DEA) models consider a system as a single-process ‘black box’. There are, however, DEA approaches that consider a system as composed of distinct processes or stages, each one with its own inputs and outputs and with intermediate flows among the stages. In this paper, a network DEA approach to airline efficiency assessment is presented. One conclusion of the study is that the network DEA approach has more discriminative power than the single-process DEA approach and that the computed targets, efficiency scores and rankings are more valid. This is because network DEA allows for a more fine-grained analysis that leads to a more realistic estimation of the overall system production possibility set than the one assumed by conventional DEA. In other words, compared with network DEA the conventional, single-process DEA represents an aggregated analysis that merges all system processes with their inputs and outputs and ignores their internal flows. The main drawbacks are the need for more detailed data (i.e. at the process level) and the greater complexity of the resulting models, especially if there are inputs or outputs that are shared among the processes.