Cost overruns in transportation infrastructure projects: Sowing the seeds for a probabilistic theory of causation

Understanding the cause of cost overruns in transportation infrastructure projects has been a topic that has received considerable attention from academics and the popular press. Despite studies providing the essential building blocks and frameworks for cost overrun mitigation and containment, the problem still remains a pervasive issue for Governments worldwide. The interdependency that exists between ‘causes’ that lead to cost overruns materialising have largely been ignored when considering the likelihood and impact of their occurrence. The vast majority of the cost overrun literature has tended to adopt a deterministic approach in examining the occurrence of the phenomenon; in this paper a shift towards the adoption of pluralistic probabilistic approach to cost overrun causation is proposed. The establishment of probabilistic theory incorporates the ability to consider the interdependencies of causes so to provide Governments with a holistic understanding of the uncertainties and risks that may derail the delivery and increase the cost of transportation infrastructure projects. This will further assist in the design of effective mitigation and containment strategies that will ensure future transportation infrastructure projects meet their expected costs as well as the need of taxpayers.     

基于主成分分析的军用软件成本类比估算

论文探讨基于案例库的军用软件成本类比估算法。首先采用主成分分析抽取最具代表的软件度量组合,以此建立综合评估模型,以软件综合评估值为软件相似度度量,分析相似度与成本之间的相关关系,进而估算当前软件成本。案例的成功应用证明了方法的可行性和有效性。     

Measuring System Regularity Using Fuzzy Similarity-based Approximate Entropy

Approximate entropy (ApEn), a measure quantifying regularity and complexity, is believed to be an effective analyzing method of diverse settings that include both deterministic chaotic and stochastic processes, particularly operative in the analysis of physiological signals that involve relatively small amount of data. However, the similarity definition of vectors based on Heaviside function, of which the boundary is discontinuous and hard, may cause some problems in the validity and accuracy of ApEn. To overcome these problems, a modified ApEn based on fuzzy similarity (mApEn) was proposed. The performance on the MIX stochastic model, as well as those on the Logistic map and the Hennon map with noise, shows that the fuzzy similarity-based ApEn gets more satisfying results than the standard ApEn when characterizing systems with different regularities.     

基于区间矩阵的时态关系的简化方法

用区间代数能表示不确定的时态关系,可以方便地应用于时态推理,表达能力强。将区间代数及区间矩阵中有端点相等的基本关系去掉,只保留现实世界中真正可能发生的基本关系,大大降低了问题的复杂性,然后,对每个原子矩阵建立一个特征集,用特征集的并运算来取代矩阵的复合运算,提高了计算效率。     

A Fuzzy Set Approach for a Location-Inventory Model

Abstract

In the supply chain, production and logistics facilities are positioned between the customer and supply markets. As a consequence, any changes in these markets should cause the enterprise to re-evaluate its location and the capacity of its activities at that particular location in the logistics network, which also means re-evaluating the parameters of input-output matrices for the entire supply chain. Different analytical approaches have been developed to describe the influence of production on the hierarchical spatial pattern. Our article presents a fuzzy set approach to the model of spatial hierarchy as a result of spatial interactions. We attempt to present the difference between net present value estimated by a fuzzy approach on the one hand and report on an analytical approach to the problem on the other.     

基于大规模定位数据的出行方式模糊判别研究

交通需求信息对于从战略上解决交通拥堵问题是非常重要的。从无线通信网络和GPS系统中可以获得大规模的定位数据。从定位数据中可以挖掘出完整的出行轨迹信息和有价值的出行需求特征信息。文中提出了以各种出行方式的先验知识为依据的出行方式模糊判别方法。该方法以从出行轨迹信息中提取的出行属性数据为输入,采用模糊推理机制实现机动车、自行车、步行等3种出行方式的良好区分。该方法可为交通规划工作提供出行方式划分方面的数据,并具有比传统交通调查方法更低的成本和更短的数据更新周期。     

基于Tableau算法的本体模型验证方法研究

文章首先介绍了本体模型的Tbox术语检验和Abox实例检验,将本体模型的一致性检验简化为术语的可满足性检验。通过引入Tableau算法的思想,对本体模型的概念定义以及概念间的关系进行可满足性测试,最后采用Racer推理机结合海军军械保障实例对基于描述逻辑的本体模型可满足性检验的有效性算法进行了验证。     

HYBRID STRATIFIED ATMS AND ANN FOR CASE-BASED REASONING

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基于约束推理的车站咽喉图型识别及优化设计模型

通用型计算机辅助设计(CAD)软件中不包括铁路车站咽喉平面设计的工具,因此需要研究专业的设计平台。本文认为解决该问题的途径是,首先基于人机交互的图型环境,输入并建立车站咽喉的结构图型,然后通过有效的计算手段识别和判定这种咽喉结构,最后通过结构计算实现车站咽喉平面设计的目标。文章认为模块法比画线法输入咽喉结构图型效率更高,也便于识别。因此,将车站咽喉的基本图形分解为6种基本图元,并对这些图元进行了恰当的描述。应用矢量对接判定条件,识别咽喉结构图型中图元的连接关系。依这种关系,应用约束推理方法和最优化的数学模型,计算满足咽喉设计条件下最优岔心位置坐标和最大平行进路数,从而实现车站咽喉平面设计优化和自动化。     

基于案例推理的铁路施工项目投标报价决策研究

基于案例推理的铁路施工项目投标报价决策模型构建与投标报价紧密关联的基本信息、工程特征、中标情况和投标过程四框架案例库,并将最近相邻法和归纳索引法相结合获得项目综合相似度,同时,建立案例维护机制模型保证决策系统的准确性与科学性.研究结果表明:案例调整焦点在于对投标报价的修改及估算;该研究成果对于加强铁路施工项目管理及控制铁路建设投资具有一定实际意义.