道路通行能力不确定性分析方法研究

在分析通行能力不确定性及其产生的原因基础上,应用数理统计有关概念给出了通行能力不确定性度量方法.针对通行能力是估计值的特点,提出了应用自助法来分析通行能力的不确定性问题.最后,结合快速路基本路段通行能力的速度-流量统计分析模型,应用上述方法对快速路基本路段通行能力不确定性进行了分析.     

Consumer purchase intentions for electric vehicles: Is green more important than price and range?

In view of global warming and climate change, a transition from combustion to electric vehicles (EVs) can help to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and improve air quality. However, high acquisition costs and short driving ranges are considered to be main factors which impede the diffusion of EVs. Since electricity needs to be produced from renewable energy sources for EVs to be a true green alternative, the environmental performance of EVs is also presumed to be an important factor. This paper investigates the role of environmental performance compared to price value and range confidence regarding consumer purchase intentions for EVs. To develop our hypothesis, we interview 40 end-user subjects about their beliefs toward EVs. Then, we perform 167 test drives with a plug-in battery EV and conduct a survey with the participants to test the hypothesis. Results of a structural equation modeling support the hypothesis that the environmental performance of EVs is a stronger predictor of attitude and thus purchase intention than price value and range confidence.     

软件Markov测试的可靠性评估

计算机软件可靠性估计是当今研究的重要问题之一。基于有限Markov链理论，形式化的描述了软件统计测试方法，提出了一种软件的可靠度估计及其近似置信下限估计方法，并分别对特殊的分支和序列两类软件系统进行了具体研究。     

Development of six sigma concurrent parameter and tolerance design method based on response surface methodology

Using Response Surface Methodology (RSM), an optimizing model of concurrent parameter and tolerance design is proposed where response mean equals its target in the target being best. The optimizing function of the model is the sum of quality loss and tolerance cost subjecting to the variance confidence region of which six sigma capability can be assured. An example is illustrated in order to compare the differences between the developed model and the parameter design with minimum variance. The results show that the proposed method not only achieves robustness, but also greatly reduces cast. The objectives of high quality and low cost of product and process can be achieved simultaneously by the application of six sigma concurrent parameter and tolerance design.     

Environment–person interactions enabling walking in later life

Traditionally, theory suggests the ageing individual is strongly influenced by the environment and has difficulties in overcoming distance and space. Recently, however, theory has moved to suggest that older people possess greater agency, being more capable of selecting and mastering their environments and spaces according to their needs and preferences. This paper suggests that both opposing theories are correct for differing groups. Observations and surveys of older people (n = 365) in public space examined how far person–environment agency is present in active use of outdoor space, measured by confidence to use and explore space, in three locations (urban shopping centres, suburban residential area and an area of shared space). In all three areas, dominance of the space was associated with being male and having higher levels of reported health, confidence and higher socio-economic status. Only 11% of participants walked at least as fast as the UK department for transport guidance on crossing speeds.     

车辆号牌识别率合理评价

车辆号牌识别率关系到交通信息采集中车牌识别的精确度,本文把车牌识别的过程近似地抽象为贝努利试验,据此提出了一种实际检测车辆号牌识别率的应用方法.     

城市公共交通发展水平的属性数学识别模型

为了合理评价城市公共交通发展水平,构建了城市公共交通发展水平评价指标体系与分级标准,提出了属性数学识别模型。应用变异系数法确定评价指标的权重,根据单指标的属性测度值与多指标的综合属性测度值,利用置信度准则识别城市公共交通发展水平。评价结果表明:青岛市公共交通发展水平属于较高等级,与民意调查结果相吻合,而且还可知青岛市的公交设施水平属于高级,服务水平与效益水平属于中等,因此,该模型可行。     

盐酸青藤碱对心脏收缩间期的影响与其血药浓度的关系

给家兔静注盐酸青藤碱（SIN）20mg／kg，于给药后6h内不同时间测定心脏收缩间期（STI）并用薄层扫描法测定血药浓度。根据Hill作图法求出药物对STI的延长效应E与血药浓度C的数学关系式为：ELVET＝28·C2.038／（C2.038＋1．52.038）；EQS2＝27·C1.712／（C2.712＋2．41.712）；而EPEP与血药浓度有一定的量效关系但用Hill方程时直线相关不显著。提示SIN对STI中LVET和QS2的延长效应与其血药浓度呈显著的效应-浓度依赖关系。     

基于交互多模型的车辆质量与道路坡度估计（双语出版）

车辆结构参数和道路环境信息的实时准确获取是提高智能汽车运动控制性能的重要因素之一，而车辆质量与道路坡度信息是多种汽车控制系统的必要信息，因此质量与坡度在线估计的研究一直受到关注。针对车辆质量与道路坡度的联合估计问题，提出了一种基于交互多模型的质量与坡度融合估计方法。首先，设定了适宜进行质量精确估计的工况条件，据此提出了基于模糊规则的质量估计置信度因子计算算法，进而设计了基于置信度因子的递推最小二乘车辆质量估计算法，以实现质量的在线估计。然后，以车辆纵向动力学模型为基础，建立了运动学和动力学2种坡度估计模型，并设计了基于运动学模型的线性卡尔曼滤波坡度观测器，基于电子稳定性程序ESP的纵向加速度信息实现坡度估计，设计了基于动力学模型的无迹卡尔曼滤波坡度观测器，基于ESP和发动机管理系统EMS的力信息实现坡度估计。运动学模型未考虑车辆姿态信息，坡度估算结果与实际值有偏差；动力学模型对模型精度要求高，算法稳定性差，为充分发挥2种方法优势实现坡度的精确估计，采用交互多模型算法实现了2种坡度估计方法的加权融合。最后，对所设计的算法进行了实车试验验证。结果表明：所设计的质量与坡度估算算法具有较好的实时性和准确性，适合智能汽车运动控制的应用需求。     

校园交通服务水平属性数学识别与评价

提出了基于属性数学识别的大学校园服务水平定量评价分析体系,通过交通调查及统计分析确定校园交通需求并建立评价指标,利用变异系数法计算指标权重并采用属性数学识别法及置信度准则判断校园交通的服务水平．以广州市大学城为研究区域建立属性数学的评价体系,并对中山大学东校区进行了应用,提出了校园交通改善方案,并对改善前后的指标进行了对比分析,结果显示该评价体系能有效避免数据丢失、分级不清,直观反映校园交通系统服务水平的变化．