Total cost analysis: An alternative to benefit-cost analysis in evaluating transportation alternatives

This paper explains the theory in support of total cost analysis (TCA) to compare transportation system alternatives. The full costs of each alternative are first aggregated, including travel time costs and monetizable environmental and social costs. Many costs which are considered on the benefits side of the equation in benefit-cost analysis (BCA) as "cost savings" are brought over to the costs side. Total cost differences among alternatives are then traded off against their estimated non-monetized benefits or impacts, just as a consumer trades off product quality against cost before deciding which product he or she will buy. One advantage of TCA over traditional BCA is that the concept of "total cost" is more easily understood by the public and by political decision-makers than BCA concepts such as "net present worth", "benefit-cost ratio" and "internal rate of return". A second advantage is that there is no suggestion that all "benefits" have been considered; decision-makers are free to use their own value judgements to trade off total cost against non-monetizable social, environmental and economic impacts, just as they trade off quality and convenience against cost when purchasing goods and services in their roles as consumers. The TCA approach is demonstrated in this paper through a case study of two systemwide alternatives for the Baltimore, MD urban area.     

城市轨道交通的旅行速度与列车拥挤度

从满足乘客出行需求的角度阐述城市轨道交通列车旅行速度、拥挤度两项指标的重要意义,并以当前我国典型的一线、二线城市轨道交通旅行速度、拥挤度的指标水平和提升过程为实例,分析这两项指标的计算方法、核心要素以及相互关系,从而提出新线开通运营前合理确定和开通运营后不断提升这两项核心指标的具体方法和措施:从优化司机站务人员站台作业标准流程、减少车辆开关门时间和同步延时时间、缩小列车区间运行时间余量等方面提高旅行速度;在开通初期可以通过增加上线列车数、中期可以通过提高旅行速度和折返效率的方法来降低列车拥挤度,而后期则需要研究采用大小交路套跑、上下行不对称运输、平行线路建设、新车增购等方式来从根本上降低列车拥挤度,不断提高乘客服务水平。     

杭州市交通状况及车联网市场前景的调研与分析

作为物联网在交通领域的应用,车联网可有效缓解当前的城市交通问题.为更好地把握车联网的市场前景,2012年底在杭州市开展了一次大规模随机抽样调查活动,在汽车4S店、二手车市场、高校、政府机关和企业内随机发放问卷共800份.根据对问卷结果的统计分析,绝大部分驾驶员对杭城交通状况十分不满意,造成交通问题的主因是车辆增长过快,大多数驾驶员对车联网应用及相关产品十分感兴趣,并愿意为之支付一定费用.由此可以推断车联网市场前景非常广阔.     

The role of volume-delay functions in forecasting and evaluating congestion charging schemes: the Stockholm case

This paper uses observations from before and during the Stockkholm congestion charging trial in order to validate and improve a transportation model for Stockholm. The model overestimates the impact of the charges on traffic volumes while at the same time it substantially underestimates the impact on travel times. These forecast errors lead to considerable underestimation of economic benefits which are dominated by travel time savings. The source of error lies in the static assignment that is used in the model. Making the volume-delay functions (VDFs) steeper only marginally improves the quality of forecast but strongly impacts the result of benefit calculations. We therefore conclude that the dynamic assignment is crucial for an informed decision on introducing measures aimed at relieving congestion. However, in the absence of such a calibrated dynamic model for a city, we recommend that at least a sensitivity analysis with respect to the slope of VDFs is performed.     

哈尔滨市城市交通拥堵原因及解决措施

城市交通拥堵问题表象在城市道路交通,其根源受城市的自然环境、气候、历史、规划以及市民岀行习惯等方面影响。全面、客观地分析总结了影响哈尔滨城市交通拥堵的原因,对解决城市交通拥堵问题进行了思考,并提出了建议和具体措施。     

A Pareto-improving hybrid rationing and pricing policy with multiclass network equilibria

This paper extends the work on Pareto-improving hybrid rationing and pricing policy for general road networks by considering heterogeneous users with different values of time. Mathematical programming models are proposed to find a multiclass Pareto-improving pure road space rationing scheme (MPI-PR) and multiclass hybrid rationing and pricing schemes (MHPI and MHPI-S). A numerical example with a multimodal network is provided for comparing both the efficiency and equity of the three proposed policies. We discover that MHPI-S can achieve the largest reduction in total system delay, MHPI can induce the least spatial inequity and MHPI-S is a progressive policy which is appealing to policy makers. Furthermore, numerical results reveal that different classes of users react differently to the same hybrid policies and multiclass Pareto-improving hybrid schemes yield less delay reduction when compared to their single-class counterparts.     

集聚经济视角下轨道交通投资对城市系统均衡的影响

随着城镇化进程加快,城市规模增加所带来的集聚效应和交通拥堵等负外部性之间的矛盾越来越突出,优化城市交通基础设施建设是缓解该矛盾的重要举措。本文同时考虑了集聚经济和交通拥挤两种外部性,构建并求解了一个两区域城市空间结构模型,分三种情况探究了轨道交通的投资引入和道路容量的优化对城市规模和城市空间结构均衡的影响。结果表明,轨道交通的投资引入能够增加城市人口规模和社会福利,使城市结构更加紧凑。但是,随着集聚经济水平的提高,城市规划者应逐步完善公交配套设施,以降低公交拥挤成本,提高公交出行分担率;还应制定相应的福利政策,避免由于个体效用下降而导致人口流出。     

基于自适应神经模糊推理的交通状态判别方法

文章针对交通状态具有模糊性和主观性的特点,建立能够真实反映人对交通拥塞程度感觉的自适应-神经模糊推理系统,使具有变化连续的交通流参数模糊化处理,实现了道路交通状态的准确、快速辨别。     

Airport demand management: The operations research and economics perspectives and potential synergies

Airport demand management aims to mitigate air traffic congestion by limiting the imbalances between demand and capacity at busy airports through administrative measures (e.g., slot controls) or economic incentives (e.g., congestion pricing, slot auctions). This paper provides an integrated synthesis of the contributions of the fields of operations research/management science (OR/MS) and economics on the subject matter. From an operating standpoint, assessing the benefits of demand management requires estimates of airport capacity and models of airport on-time performance. From a managerial standpoint, the design of demand management mechanisms can be supported by decision-making models of flight scheduling. From an economic standpoint, the welfare impact of congestion pricing, slot controls and slot auctions depends on the market structure at the airport. This paper proposes an integrated framework that underscores the interdependencies between these operating, managerial and economic aspects to foster cross-disciplinary approaches toward more effective demand management policies at busy airports worldwide.     

Edinburgh's Congestion Charging Plans: An Analysis of Reasons for Non-Implementation

Abstract

The City of Edinburgh in Scotland in the UK had advanced plans for a congestion charging scheme until 25 February 2005. However, these plans were abandoned at that time after a referendum that resulted in a ‘no vote’. This paper explains the origins of the scheme, outlines its nature, extent, charging technology and predicted effect; it also analyses the difficulties that exist when attempting to plan and implement such a scheme in a particular governance context, and when there is little unanimity of public opinion about the need for a scheme.

As well as the primary documentation from the proposals (e.g. public inquiry submissions, papers to government), the paper also draws upon a series of face-to-face interviews that were undertaken with key stakeholders. It also provides an analysis of press coverage in the local (Edinburgh) and national (Scottish) newspapers in the run-up to the referendum. These sources explain both the systemic and more local barriers to the scheme's implementation.

The paper draws key lessons which are important for authorities considering the implementation of a road user charging scheme, by suggesting how legislative and governance barriers to implementation can be reduced. The lessons are of relevance world wide.