基于行为识别的智能车纵向决策研究

针对智能车纵向决策问题,提出基于环境车辆偏离车道程度识别运动模式的方法;构建动态环境车辆横纵向轨迹预测模型,并求解;构建保持、先行、避让在内的决策集,提出基于预测轨迹的单个车辆决策方法,并基于所有动态环境车辆的决策结果在加速、减速和匀速3 种结果中做出综合决策. 实车实验表明：在直行、换道和转弯运动模式下轨迹预测平均误差分别为0.11,0.29,0.80 m,预测精度较高;复杂动态环境下,本文提供的纵向决策信息提升了智能车行驶的安全性和舒适性.     

大型编组站空车调配若干问题研究

抓住地方流为有调中转流服务,确保列车正点出发这个大原则,在分析到达车流、发送货流以及车站现有车辆的基础上,将编组站空车调配问题划分为两个阶段进行研究.首先从运用车数最少,发送吨数最多两项目标出发,考虑车种代用,建立编组站空车调配计划模型.然后用分段的多个"静态"优化问题逼近一个"动态"问题的方法,以压缩作业车在站停留时间,减少空车调移总费用为目标,建立各时段编组站货场、调车场及专用线问的空车调配决策模型.通过一定算法,即可实现用计算机编制拥有大型货场和大量专用线的编组站空车调配计划,以减轻计划人员的劳动强度,辅助车站调度员做好空车调配工作.     

Determinants of modal choice in freight transport

In the next few years, exciting developments in the field of freight transport are likely to occur. The Channel Tunnel will be perceived as giving railways much greater distance of operation, compared to the current train ferry to/from Great Britain. The further development of swap-body technology will allow easier modal transfer and the creation, in 1992, of a single market in Europe will transform the pattern of trade. All of these are likely to have significant impacts on modal choice, and hence modal split, in freight transport. Reappraisal by many firms of the modes of transport used is likely but will it result in a net transfer of freight from road to rail and, if so, to what extent? To answer such questions, an accurate and reliable method of predicting modal split is required. Research in the past has concentrated on the development of modal split models based on generalised costs. These fail to explain adequately the prevalence of road freight in the UK. From surveys of freight managers within industry, it is clear that models to date rely too heavily on the economic cost factor and too little on behavioural factors (Jeffs 1985). This paper derives from a recent study of freight transport modal choice from the standpoint of the transport decision-maker within the firm. It attempts to shed light on the actual parameters which should be incorporated into a modal split model. Many variables appear to exert an influence on modal choice decision-making process. However, it is possible to categorise them into six main groups, namely: customer-requirements; product-characteristics; company structure/organisation; government interventions; available transport facilities; and perceptions of the decision-maker him/herself. It is the interactions and inter-relationships between these which ultimately determine freight modal split. This study has shown that the relationship between the outcome of the transport decision process and the values of particular determinants of modal split is not straight-forward, due to the complexity and variety of interactions involved. Perhaps one of the main reasons for researchers' failure hitherto to develop a successful modal-split model has been the preoccupation with techniques that rely on the development of common metric (e.g. generalised cost), which has led to the exclusion of some important explanatory variables along quite different dimensions. Another important issue concerns the appropriate level of aggregation. In order not to reduce the explanatory power of the key variables, it is important to work at a disaggregate level, although this does make substantial demands on data. The use of factor analysis enables both the aggregation of information without loss of behavioural reality and the specification of variables in terms of a common metric. In conclusion, freight transport has usually been examined within too narrow a framework. It must be placed firmly within the context of the total industrial process. The demand for freight transport is directly influenced by the level, composition and geographical distribution of production and consumption activities. Freight flows are complex and so it is highly unlikely that a universal mode-choice model can ever be developed. Future research should, therefore, be directed towards developing partial models in response to specific needs of those involved in decision-taking in the freight sector.     

我国地铁施工安全风险管理体系的研究

分析我国地铁施工过程中的安全管理现状,针对实践中的主要问题,提出通过制定风险管理全程策划、加强知识管理和地铁项目管理相结合、加快安全监控与预警决策信息系统的开发等手段,实现地铁项目全寿命周期的安全控制.首次将知识管理运用到地铁施工安全风险管理体系中.     

基于案例推理的铁路行车事故应急决策方法研究

为提高铁路行车事故应急处置能力,本文提出一种实用的行车事故应急决策方法,将案例推理(Casebased Reasoning,CBR)理论应用到铁路应急决策中。首先对铁路行车事故的案例表示、案例属性体系进行描述;其次,针对铁路行车事故案例属性值类型,考虑数值型、有序枚举型、无序枚举型、区间数型及模糊数型5种形式,给出不同形式属性值的局部相似度计算模型;然后,通过计算当前铁路行车事故与事故案例的各属性相似度,建立全局相似度计算模型;再次,提出当前铁路行车事故属性缺失时的全局相似度计算模型;最后,使用案例验证该方法可行且有效。     

公路路政管理难度系数综合评价模型

在分析影响公路路政管理难度的各种因素的基础上，提出了一种基于模糊理论、层次分析法和群决策理论的新模型．该模型以模糊理论为基础对路政管理信息进行标准化处理．用层次分析法构造了评价指标体系．用群体一致性算法检验专家评估提出的意见，并最终获得权重．用归一化的专家权重、专家个人效用函数的权重以及标准化后的指标，计算群效用函数，即可确定公路路政管理难度系数．     

基于偏序结构相似度的多准则决策

针对决策者只能提供决策方案的序数偏好信息的多准则决策问题,提出了基于偏序之间相似度的多准则决策方法.该方法运用模糊相似关系确定相似度,通过计算控制指标和被控指标,分别得出方案集的两个预序排列,然后将这两个全预序排列合并成方案集的最后排列.该排列具有更符合现实决策行为的偏序结构.举例说明了该方法的可行性.     

大型军用仓库资源配置规划研究

针对大型军用仓库的资源配置规划需求,分析构建了资源配置问题的两层决策模型,提出了综合满足上层投资指数和下层保障时间要求的多目标优化资源配置策略,阐述了与遗传算法设计相关的初始配置确定、染色体构建、适应度函数选择等技术问题。仿真证明,经优化后的资源配置方案在满足任务保障时间要求的前提下,可以最大限度地降低投资成本和建设难度,对资源配置规划研究具有普遍意义。     

基于多属性群决策的武器装备先进性评估方法研究

在界定武器装备先进性概念的基础上,采用模糊语言评估的多属性群决策对武器装备先进性的各个指标进行评估,并用层次分析法确定评估指标权重,最终得出武器装备的先进性水平。将方法应用于对某型火炮的先进性评估,结果表明该方法规范、实用、有效。     

基于模糊层次分析法的防空兵作战指挥决策能力评估

防空兵作战指挥决策能力的评估,采用模糊层次分析模型,通过建立多层次指标评价体系,对单项指标进行专家评判,采用递推算法给出目标层对评语的隶属度,按最大隶属度原则给出优劣等级评定,并对评判集引入打分制,将影响指挥决策能力的各项因素都融汇于综合性的评分之中,从而为综合评估防空兵作战指挥决策能力提供了较为简便可行的方法。