信号控制对动态路线选择的影响研究

以动态路线选择模型为基础的先进的出行者信息系统（ＡＴＩＳ）的实施必然对城市交通控制系统产生影响，同时交通控制系统的控制方案对路线诱导信息“运行时间”的估计也发生作用，影响用户对最优路线的造选择。对两系统的相互关系进行了分析，并建立了两系统相互关系模型最后给出了实际案例分析。     

A conceptual and methdological framework for the generation of activity-travel patterns

This paper develops a conceptual framework for the generation of activity and travel patterns in the context of more general structures and presents an integrated model system as a step toward development of an improved travel demand forecasting model system. We propose a two-stage structure to model activity and travel behavior. The first stage, the stop generation and stop/auto allocation models, consists of the choices for the number of household maintenance stops and the allocation of stops and autos to household members. The second stage, the tour formation model, includes the choices for the number of tours and the assignment of stops to tours for each individual, conditional on the choices in the first stage. Empirical results demonstrate that individual and household socio-demographics are important factors affecting the first stage choices, the generation of maintenance stops and the allocation of stops and autos among household members, and the second stage choices, the number of tours and the assignment of stops to tours. This revised version was published online in June 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Optimal selection of suspension parameters in large scale vehicle models

Optimum values are selected for the suspension damping and stiffness parameters of complex car models, subjected to road excitation, by applying suitable numerical methodologies. These models result from a detailed finite-element discretisation and possess a relatively large number of degrees of freedom. They also involve strongly nonlinear characteristics, due mostly to large rigid body rotation of some of their components and the properties of the connection elements. First, attention is focused on gaining some insight into the dynamics of the mechanical models examined, resulting when the vehicle passes over roads involving typical geometric profiles. Then, the emphasis is shifted to presenting results obtained by applying appropriate optimisation methodologies. For this purpose, three classes of design criteria are first set up, referring to passenger ride comfort, suspension travel and car road holding and yielding the most important suspension stiffness and damping parameters. Originally, the optimisation is performed by forming a composite cost function and employing a single-objective optimisation method. Since the design criteria are conflicting, a multi-objective optimisation methodology is also set up and applied subsequently.     

A numerical investigation of the impact of turbulence on the feeding rates of Oithona davisae

Individual based numerical simulations of the copepod, Oithona davisae, feeding on motile prey, Oxyrrhis marina, under variable turbulent conditions are performed. These simulations correspond to laboratory observations conducted by Saiz et al. [Saiz, E., Calbet, A., and Broglio, E., 2003. Effects of small-scale turbulence on copepods: the case of Oithona Davisae. Limnol. Oceanogr., 48:1304–1311.].The flow field in the simulation is reconstructed by a kinematic simulation whose characteristic scales are derived from the grid mesh and the dissipation rates of the laboratory experiments. The kinematic simulation provides a simplified model, which while not fully realistic, captures the basic relevant feature of turbulence. A hop and sink swimming behaviour is prescribed for O. davisae, while O. marina moves along helical paths with random changes of directions.Three possible effects are tested: the existence of a time threshold in the duration of the contacts between predator and prey, a progressive reduction of the perceptive distance with increasing turbulence level and an abrupt reduction in feeding of O. davisae when the flow speed, in relation to the copepod position, is higher than a prescribed threshold. This last approach introduces an intermittency in the feeding which depends on the variations of velocity both in space and time within the numerical box.The introduction of the time threshold causes a dome-shaped relationship between the simulated enhancement factor and the dissipation rate, while with the other two effects, a monotonic decrease in the enhancement factor is observed, with values reasonably close to the ones observed in the laboratory experiment. In all the cases, the use of realistic values of biological parameters (e.g. swimming behaviour) reproduces response curves in the range of the observations.     

系统效能通用评估工具研究

基于数据库和算法集成,设计了一套具有良好通用性、灵活性、可扩展性的系统效能评估工具,并以此工具为基础,针对不同的评估需求、数据量和应用环境提出对应的解决方案.     

Flexible long range planning using low cost information

Contemporary transport planning requires a flexible modelling approach which can be used to monitor the implementation of a long term plan checking regularly its short term performance with easily available data; the original model is periodically updated using low cost information and this allows the evaluation of the changes to the plan which may be required. Such an approach requires models suited to regular updating and to the use of data from different sources. Models to update trip matrices from traffic counts have been available for some time; however, the estimation and/or updating of other model stages with low cost data has escaped analytical treatment. The paper discusses this idea and formulates the updating problem for an example involving a joint destination/mode choice model under various assumptions about the nature of the available data. Analytical solutions are proposed as well as some general conclusions.requests for offprints     

Alternative Modeling Approaches Used for Examining Automobile Ownership: A Comprehensive Review

Abstract

Household vehicle ownership, and the associated dimensions including fleet size, vehicle type and usage, has been one of the most researched transport topics. This paper endeavors to provide a critical overview of the wide-ranging methodological approaches employed in vehicle ownership modeling depending on the ownership representation over the past two decades. The studies in the existing literature based on the vehicle ownership representation are classified as: exogenous static, exogenous dynamic, endogenous static and endogenous dynamic models. The methodological approaches applied range from simple linear regressions to complex econometrics formulations taking into account a rich set of covariates. In spite of the steady advancement and impressive evolution in terms of methodological approaches to examine the decision process, we identify complex issues that pose a formidable challenge to address the evolution of vehicle ownership in the coming years. Specifically, we discuss challenges with data availability and methodological framework selection. In light of these discussions, we provide a decision matrix for aiding researchers/practitioners in determining appropriate model frameworks for conducting vehicle ownership analysis.     

Using repeated cross-sectional travel surveys to enhance forecasting robustness: Accounting for changing mode preferences

Transportation system capacity and performance, urban form and socio-demographics define the influences and constraints conditioning the preferences of urban residents for different transport modes. Changes in characteristics of urban areas are likely to lead to changes in preferences for alternative modes of transport over time; as a consequence, statistical models to forecast mode choice need to be sensitive to both purposeful changes to urban systems as well as exogenous shocks. We make use of the 1996, 2001 and 2006 household surveys conducted in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area to study mode preference evolution and model forecasting performance. These repeated cross-sectional household surveys provide an opportunity to investigate aggregate structural changes in commuting mode preferences over time, in a manner sensitive to changes in the urban area. We focus on commuting mode choices because these trips are prime determinants of peak period congestion and peak spreading. We then address how to combine the three cross-sections econometrically in a robust way that allows for use of a single mode choice model across the entire period. Using independent data from 2012, we are able to compare the individual year and combined models in terms of forecasting performance to demonstrate the combined model’s more robust forecasting performance into the future.     

Measuring community reaction to urban transportation impacts using Von Neumann‐Morgenstern utility theory

This paper attempts to measure the impacts of urban transportation system improvements or changes on the community. The community's perceptions of the impacts are represented by its utilities (or disutilities) over various ranges of values of the multiple attributes representing these impacts. The utility technique used in the evaluation is based upon von Neumann‐Morgenstern (vN‐M, 1947) Utility Theory, and is applied using Raiffa's (1970) Fractile Method.

The paper specifically applies the technique to model the perceptions of five subgroups within a community to the impact of a new light rail transit system that is being incorporated in the transportation system of the City of Calgary.

Results of the modeling indicate explicitly how the community changes its perception over ranges of values of the attributes evaluated. Biases of various subgroups within the community over these attributes are also shown. Statistical tests indicate that aggregated utility perceptions can represent the utility perceptions of the individual subgroups quite reasonably.