列车运行图可调整度评价系统研究

在详细分析了列车运行图缓冲时间的大小及其分布规律对列车晚点传播影响的基础上，通过建立列车运行图调整系统，对给定晚点程度的列车进行模拟调整，从而计算出列车晚点恢复率，晚点传播区大小，连带晚点时间和关键列车运行线等。指标来达到对列车运行图可高速程度优劣评判的目的。     

Development and calibration of a long-distance passenger traffic assignment model

This paper studies the assignment of long-distance passenger traffic on a highway corridor network. First, we propose a traditional model for the long-distance traffic assignment considering interactions with local commuter traffic. It addresses the effect of local networks on highway corridors. An iterative algorithm is developed to solve for the exact solution. Then, to address the potential computational issues that arise therein, a decomposition method is proposed by introducing a new concept of corridor elasticity. An assignment procedure for long-distance passenger traffic is developed accordingly. Numerical tests show that the proposed decomposition method makes significant improvements in computational performance at a small loss of optimality. This decomposition method well approximates the exact assignment from the traditional formulation, especially when the highway corridors are near-saturation. The proposed decomposition method appears practical for application.     

基于需求弹性的城市公交票价优化方法及实证分析

城市公交票价是公交系统健康发展的重要因素，票价制定需兼顾公交企业的市场性和公益性双重属性，在保证服务质量的同时，考虑运营成本和最大限度吸引公交需求，实现经济效益和社会效益的双赢.在本文中，根据用户均衡理论，构建了城市多方式交通出行的需求分析模型，采用灵敏度分析方法给出了城市公交价格-需求弹性的计算方法.在此基础上，充分考虑了各种方式的交通特征、公交需求弹性、公交运营成本及政府限价等因素，提出了城市公交票价优化的数学规划模型，并给出了求解算法.最后，以国内某城市居民出行调查及公交运营数据为基础，分析了不同条件下公交客运需求的变化规律及城市公交票价的优化策略.     

Validating and improving public transport origin–destination estimation algorithm using smart card fare data

Smart card data are increasingly used for transit network planning, passengers’ behaviour analysis and network demand forecasting. Public transport origin–destination (O–D) estimation is a significant product of processing smart card data. In recent years, various O–D estimation methods using the trip-chaining approach have attracted much attention from both researchers and practitioners. However, the validity of these estimation methods has not been extensively investigated. This is mainly because these datasets usually lack data about passengers’ alighting, as passengers are often required to tap their smart cards only when boarding a public transport service. Thus, this paper has two main objectives. First, the paper reports on the implementation and validation of the existing O–D estimation method using the unique smart card dataset of the South-East Queensland public transport network which includes data on both boarding stops and alighting stops. Second, the paper improves the O–D estimation algorithm and empirically examines these improvements, relying on this unique dataset. The evaluation of the last destination assumption of the trip-chaining method shows a significant negative impact on the matching results of the differences between actual boarding/alighting times and the public transport schedules. The proposed changes to the algorithm improve the average distance between the actual and estimated alighting stops, as this distance is reduced from 806 m using the original algorithm to 530 m after applying the suggested improvements.     

Empirical estimation of price and income elasticities of air cargo demand: The case of Hong Kong

This paper estimates the price and income elasticities of air cargo demand and examines how they may change after the 2008 financial crisis. Using a set of time series data, we simultaneously estimate the aggregated demand and supply functions of air cargo at Hong Kong International Airport (HKIA). We find that during the entire sampling period of 2001–2013, the price elasticity for air cargo transport demand at HKIA ranges from −0.74 to −0.29, suggesting that air cargo demand in Hong Kong reacts negatively to price (as expected) but does not appear to be very sensitive to price. The income elasticity ranges from 0.29 to 1.47 and appears sensitive to seasonality adjustment approaches. However, in terms of the speed of changes, air cargo demand changes much faster than overall economy, indicating the presence of a pro-cyclical pattern of air cargo traffic with respect to the overall economy. Our analysis shows that air cargo demand becomes more sensitive to changes in both price and income after 2008.     

基于地基回弹因素的盾构隧道管片上浮预测

针对软弱地层盾构隧道管片脱出盾尾后出现的上浮问题,分析盾构施工过程中管片上浮的诱因,得出软弱地层中管片的上浮主要是地层应力重分布产生的地基回弹力引起的。在此基础上建立隧道开挖动态模型,分析隧道上浮量变化规律以及地层特性对管片上浮量的影响规律,得出地层弹性模量和管片上浮量呈一定的指数关系,且弹性模量对管片上浮量的影响远大于地层黏聚力和内摩擦角。通过力平衡理论计算盾构开挖引起的地层回弹力、管片上浮量以及隧道上浮影响的地层高度范围,并通过对珠江狮子洋工程管片上浮量的计算与实测对比,证明该公式的合理性,为盾构隧道工程中考虑地基抗力引起的管片上浮量预测提供一种新的方法。     

中国铁路提速后技术进步对产出贡献的测算

选取我国铁路提速后1997~2007年间的相关数据,采用基于科布——道格拉斯生产函数的Solow余值法,将有限分布滞后模型和半参数回归模型引入计算模型,对数据进行拟合,计算得到铁路提速后技术进步、固定资本投入以及人力资本投入对产出的贡献率,并根据计算结果提出促进我国高速铁路建设的相关对策建议.     

螺旋桨无键过盈安装应力数值分析

针对螺旋桨无键过盈安装后桨-轴应力数值计算问题,运用弹性力学理论和ANSYS有限元法进行应力的数值计算。通过理论值与仿真值的对比分析表明:桨-轴应力的仿真值比理论值略大,理论值与仿真值具有较好的一致性;Ansys有限元法考虑了接触边缘区域存在应力奇异性、桨-轴存在轴向应力和螺旋桨外表面存在径向应力的情况,比运用弹性力学理论求解更加准确可靠;通过桨-轴应力计算可以证明过盈量选取的合理性,为检验螺旋桨无键过盈安装的可靠性提供理论基础。     

柱形弹性套胀紧联接试验研究

在柱形弹性套胀紧联接理论研究基础上,为了研究柱形弹性套上的螺栓拉力与柱形弹性套所能传递的最大扭矩之间的关系设计了一套试验方案。在自主开发的弹性套胀紧联接试验台上进行试验,用Matlab采集数据,根据试验结果,最终得到柱形弹性套的螺栓压力与最大传递扭矩之间的试验公式。     

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为了适应经济发展，我国许多城市加快了轨道交通的建设步伐。私营公司与政府签订合作协议，共同参与运营管理，这打破了以往一家运营商的垄断局面。如何在保证高质量的运营效率的同时，兼顾各家运营商的收益分配，运费清分的研究显得十分重要。本文分析了影响清分的主要因素和原则，建立有效路径选择模型和基于概率的多路径选择模型。采用改进的遍历算法以保证有效路径集的完整性。利用c++程序计算出各条路径的分担比例和各家运营商的清分比例，给出了提高清分比例的研究结论和建议。