上海轨道交通票价体制现状与调整策略研究

总结和回顾了上海轨道交通票价体制的发展历程,分析了现行的票价体制及其存在的问题,指出了上海轨道交通票价体制改革的必要性和依据.在此基础上,综合考虑乘客、企业和政府三者利益,提出上海票价体制改革的原则和策略,为上海轨道交通票价体制改革提供参考.     

Does the income elasticity of road traffic depend on the source of income?

An extensive body of literature addresses the income elasticity of road traffic, in which income is typically treated as a homogenous quantity. Here we report evidence of heterogeneity in cross-sectional estimates of the elasticity of vehicle-kilometres of travel (VKT) with respect to income, when household income is disaggregated on the basis of income source.The results are generally intuitive, and show that the cross-sectional income elasticity of road traffic is not homogeneous as is typically specified in transport planning models. We show that in a number of circumstances the cross-sectional elasticity with respect to aggregate household income is of the opposite sign in comparison to more refined estimates of elasticity disaggregated by income source. If further research confirms that the elasticities we report here are causal in nature, neglecting the elemental effects could result in misleading results affecting practical infrastructure-investment and policy decisions, particularly as the mix of income sources shifts (e.g. if, as society ages, pension income increases as a share of all income).These results are of interest to both researchers and forecasters of travel demand, as well as designers of future travel survey instruments; the latter group must decide how to generate data about respondents’ income. Current expert guidance is to collect a single estimate of aggregate income at the household level. Future travel survey design choices will bound the analyses that can be supported by the resulting survey data, and therefore methodological research to re-visit the trade-offs associated with such choices is warranted.     

Estimating flight-level price elasticities using online airline data: A first step toward integrating pricing,demand, and revenue optimization

We estimate flight-level price elasticities using a database of online prices and seat map displays. In contrast to market-level and route-level elasticities reported in the literature, flight-level elasticities can forecast responses in demand due to day-to-day price fluctuations. Knowing how elasticities vary by flight and booking characteristics and in response to competitors’ pricing actions allows airlines to design better promotions. It also allows policy makers the ability to evaluate the impacts of proposed tax increases or time-of-day congestion pricing policies. Our elasticity results show how airlines can design optimal promotions by considering not only which departure dates should be targeted, but also which days of the week customers should be allowed to purchase. Additionally, we show how elasticities can be used by carriers to strategically match a subset of their competitors’ sale fares. Methodologically, we use an approach that corrects for price endogeneity; failure to do so results in biased estimates and incorrect pricing recommendations. Using an instrumental variable approach to address this problem we find a set of valid instruments that can be used in future studies of air travel demand. We conclude by describing how our approach contributes to the literature, by offering an approach to estimate flight-level demand elasticities that the research community needs as an input to more advanced optimization models that integrate demand forecasting, price optimization, and revenue optimization models.     

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高速铁路为人们提供了一种高效的运输方式.本文借鉴弹性系数法的相关理论,首先运用广义费用函数测算样本中高铁开通前后两地区综合客运成本的变化,结合两地区高铁开通前后客运量的变化得到了运输成本弹性系数,用于衡量两地区对于高铁开通的迫切性程度,从而在另一个层面衡量高铁建设的可行性.然后根据运输经济学及新经济地理学的相关理论,从人口、距离、人均GDP差异、平均人均GDP和产业结构相似度5个维度对样本的运输成本弹性系数进行建模,运用神经网络的方法来拟合其对运输成本弹性系数的影响情况,并以此为依据来测算北京市和张家口市对即将开通的京张高铁的迫切性程度.     

The cost of equity: Assessing transit accessibility and social disparity using total travel cost

Social equity is increasingly incorporated as a long-term objective into urban transportation plans. Researchers use accessibility measures to assess equity issues, such as determining the amount of jobs reachable by marginalized groups within a defined travel time threshold and compare these measures across socioeconomic categories. However, allocating public transit resources in an equitable manner is not only related to travel time, but also related to the out-of-pocket cost of transit, which can represent a major barrier to accessibility for many disadvantaged groups. Therefore, this research proposes a set of new accessibility measures that incorporates both travel time and transit fares. It then applies those measures to determine whether people residing in socially disadvantaged neighborhoods in Montreal, Canada experience the same levels of transit accessibility as those living in other neighborhoods. Results are presented in terms of regional accessibility and trends by social indicator decile. Travel time accessibility measures estimate a higher number of jobs that can be reached compared to combined travel time and cost measures. However, the degree and impact of these measures varies across the social deciles. Compared to other groups in the region, residents of socially disadvantaged areas have more equitable accessibility to jobs using transit; this is reflected in smaller decreases in accessibility when fare costs are included. Generating new measures of accessibility combining travel time and transit fares provides more accurate measures that can be easily communicated by transportation planners and engineers to policy makers and the public since it translates accessibility measures to a dollar value.     

机车轮对温差法装配过程三维弹塑性模拟

用有限元方法对机车轮对温差法装配过程进行了三维弹塑性模拟,分析了车轮与车轴中的等效应力和接触应力的分布以及轮对的塑性变形,探讨了轮毂配合间的边缘应力集中问题,对轮对过盈配合的设计具有一定的指导意义.     

自动售检票系统通用报文的封送及解封技术

自动售检票(AFC)系统是城市轨道交通运营的核心.介绍了AFC通信报文的模式和报文格式的抽象.沈阳地铁1号线及延伸线工程的通用报文封送、解封方案采用此方案后提高了AFC系统的设备兼容能力以及通信的健壮性、软件的复用能力,降低了AFC系统研发周期,从而整体上提高了系统集成能力.     

Bridge and tunnel toll elasticities in New York

In 1992, the authors carried out a statistical analysis of Triborough Bridge and Tunnel Authority (TBTA) crossings in New York City, to determine the impact of toll increases on traffic volumes and revenue. Using twelve years of monthly time-series data, we developed a set of multiple regression models that estimated traffic volumes on each TBTA bridge and tunnel as a function of the toll level and other explanatory variables. In most cases, the estimated toll elasticities were negative and much less than 1.0 in absolute value; the median toll elasticity for automobiles was found to be –0.10. Our finding that automobile travel demand is highly inelastic with respect to toll rates is consistent with most previous travel demand studies.     

C20喷射混凝土冻融力学试验

采用喷大板法制做C20喷射混凝土试件,使用压力试验机对经历不同冻融循环次数的试件进行了抗压和抗拉强度测试,分析冻融循环作用下其变化规律,采用共振法和超声波法对经历不同冻融循环次数的喷射混凝土进行动弹性模量测试,分析其抗冻耐久性,并对经历不同冻融循环次数下的试件外观进行了描述。研究结果表明：冻融对喷射混凝土的抗拉和抗压强度影响较大,随着冻融循环次数的增加,抗拉和抗压强度衰减程度增大,相对动弹性模量也逐渐衰减,呈线性降低趋势;C20喷射混凝土的相对耐久性指数非常低,经历50次冻融循环后的耐久性指数为10.1%,与C20普通混凝土相比,其相对耐久性指数更低,抗冻耐久性更差;C20喷射混凝土经历75次冻融循环后出现严重的酥碎剥落情况,不能满足工程抗冻性要求。     

架空刚性悬挂弹性改进方案研究

针对架空刚性悬挂接触网在工程应用中部分区段弓网磨耗严重问题,本文从刚性悬挂系统弹性角度进行研究,分析得出将既有系统刚度降低,可以提高系统弹性以缓解弓网之间的磨耗。为此,提出了弹性绝缘子这一全新的技术方案并进行研发,根据实验结果可增加刚性接触网的系统弹性,提高受电弓与接触网之间的受流质量。