TGNET仿真软件敏感参数研究

在天然气管道输送中,管内壁粗糙度和管道输送效率是影响管线压降的主要因素.TG-NET7.2仿真软件的计算程序中,粗糙度和输送效率的初值给定和调整是模拟用时和模拟精度的关键.TGNET7.2仿真软件基于粗糙度推荐科尔布鲁克(Colebrook)公式,未推荐调整输送效率时的摩阻计算公式.文中以川西气田常用规格管径为例展开研...     

An analysis on long term emission benefits of a government vehicle fleet replacement plan in northern illinois

There have been a number of studies of the effectiveness of vehicle scrappage programs, which offer incentives to accelerated scrappage of older vehicles often thought to be high emitters. These programs are voluntary and aimed at replacement of household vehicles. In contrast, there is a gap in knowledge related to the emissions benefits of government fleet replacement (retirement) programs. In this study, the efficacy of a fleet replacement program for a local government agency in Northern Illinois, the Forest Preserve of DuPage County (FPDC), is examined using a probabilistic vehicle survival model that accounts for time-varying covariates such as vehicle age and gasoline price. The vehicle lifetime operating emissions are calculated based on the estimated vehicle survival probabilities from the survival model and compared with those derived using the EPA default fleet used in MOBILE6 and the fleet represented by the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) survival curve. The results suggest that while there may be short term emission benefits of the FPDC fleet replacement plan, the long-term emission benefits are highly sensitive to economic factors (e.g., future gasoline price) and exhibit a decreasing trend. This indicates that an adaptive multi-stage replacement strategy as opposed to a fixed one is preferable to achieve optimal cost effectiveness.

基于多源公交数据和车时成本优化的公交运营时段划分方法

现有公交运营时段划分方法均基于单一参数（乘客需求或行程时间）的相似性,忽略了乘客需求与行程时间对时段划分方案的协同作用。针对传统方法的缺陷,利用多源公交数据,提出一种新的基于最小化车队运营时间成本的时段划分方法。首先,利用逆差函数模型计算时间窗内完成班次任务所需要的最小车队规模,进而利用滑动时间窗模型,计算全天各时间窗所需的理论最小车队规模。然后,以时段划分方案的时间分割点为决策变量,以最小化全天累计车队运营时间成本为目标建立优化模型,采用遗传算法对运营时段划分方案进行寻优。最后,以广州市87路公交线路实际数据为例进行验证,并对模型参数进行敏感性分析。研究结果表明：与传统方法相比,所提方法能更好地实现运力与运量相匹配,并有效降低车时成本;与以往基于断面客流和基于行程时间的划分方案相比,所提方案的车时成本分别降低25 veh·h和45.33 veh·h。     

基于多智能体仿真的集装箱港口作业效率研究

集装箱港口生产作业系统是复杂的离散事件系统,数学建模方法难以构建针对整个系统的模型,而基于过程的仿真模型通常缺乏对设备调度的灵活性。为准确描述我国集装箱港口的作业流程,分析内卡配置数量对港口作业效率的影响,提出了基于事件驱动的集装箱港口多智能体(Multi-Agent)仿真模型。仿真结果表明:岸桥平均装卸效率(GCR)随着内卡数量的增加先急剧增加后缓慢增加,船舶平均等待时间(AWT)和平均在泊时间(AST)与岸桥平均装卸效率呈明显负相关关系。     

施工机群配置对温度离析的潜在影响

以沥青砼路面施工机群配置理论为基础,结合我国当前沥青砼路面施工工艺,分析了温度离析产生的主要原因,提出了从机群配置来缓解温度离析的主要措施和基于温度离析的机群配置评价标准.     

导弹武器系统战备完好性仿真模型研究

针对现实作战条件下的导弹武器系统,根据其具体工作流程与综合保障规则。利用Monte Carlo抽样、离散事件仿真、数理统计、计算机仿真等理论建立了一种基于设备参数和使用规则的综合模型和算法。结果表明此模型估算的战备完好性程度是切合实际的,并能发现影响任务的关键设备,为优化综合保障提供依据。     

The effect of uncertainty on US transport-related GHG emissions and fuel consumption out to 2050

The future of US transport energy requirements and emissions is uncertain. Transport policy research has explored a number of scenarios to better understand the future characteristics of US light-duty vehicles. Deterministic scenario analysis is, however, unable to identify the impact of uncertainty on the future US vehicle fleet emissions and energy use. Variables determining the future fleet emissions and fuel use are inherently uncertain and thus the shortfall in understanding the impact of uncertainty on the future of US transport needs to be addressed. This paper uses a stochastic technology and fleet assessment model to quantify the uncertainties in US vehicle fleet emissions and fuel use for a realistic yet ambitious pathway which results in about a 50% reduction in fleet GHG emissions in 2050. The results show the probability distribution of fleet emissions, fuel use, and energy consumption over time out to 2050. The expected value for the fleet fuel consumption is about 450 and 350 billion litres of gasoline equivalent with standard deviations of 40 and 80 in 2030 and 2050, respectively. The expected value for the fleet GHG emissions is about 1360 and 850 Mt CO₂ equivalent with standard deviation of 130 and 230 in 2030 and 2050 respectively. The parameters that are major contributors to variations in emissions and fuel consumption are also identified and ranked through the uncertainty analysis. It is further shown that these major contributors change over time, and include parameters such as: vehicle scrappage rate, annual growth of vehicle kilometres travelled in the near term, total vehicle sales, fuel economy of the dominant naturally-aspirated spark ignition vehicles, and percentage of gasoline displaced by cellulosic ethanol. The findings in this paper demonstrate the importance of taking uncertainties into consideration when choosing amongst alternative fuel and emissions reduction pathways, in the light of their possible consequences.     

长江三峡两坝间河段汛期通航试验研究

三峡大坝至葛洲坝两坝间38 km河段是连接三峡库区和葛洲坝下游航道的关键航道。两坝间航道穿行于高山峡谷之中,水流条件复杂,是三峡枢纽涉及的航道中较困难的一段,解决好两坝间的通航问题,是三峡枢纽通航的主要环节。因此,提高两坝间河段通航流量对延长通航期具有重要意义。采用增加推轮推力,改善推轮操纵性能和减驳减载等改进措施,可将两坝间河段的通航流量级由上水的20 000 m3/s,提高到45 000 m3/s。     

全自动无人驾驶的系统服务可用性考核方法的研究

随着全自动无人驾驶技术的加速发展,其系统服务可用性的考核也受到广泛关注,但目前的城市轨道交通运营绩效考核方法并不适用于全自动无人驾驶技术。因此,文章基于全自动无人驾驶技术在列车运行操作上的特点和故障管理策略对于系统服务可用性的影响,提出了一种适用于全自动无人驾驶技术的系统服务可用性考核方法,为完善城市轨道交通服务可用性考核方法提供一定的技术支持。     

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行程时间的不确定性是影响货运车队路径选择的一个重要因素，特别是对于要求货物准时送达的配送任务（例如商品混凝土的配送），提出了在车辆调度中考虑由拥挤路段交通流量波动引起的行程时间不确定性的方法，建立了考虑行程时间可靠性要求的车辆优化调度数学模型，给出了相应的启发式算法，通过算例介绍了该模型和算法的应用。结果表明配送总成本随行程时间可靠性要求的提高而增加。