社区建成环境对机动车行驶里程影响的空间异质性模型

为指导社区生活圈打造绿色出行环境，定量解析社区建成环境对居民小汽车行驶里程 (VMT)影响的空间异质性。基于建成环境的5D维度选取人口密度、土地利用多样性及公交站点密度等6个指标刻画建成环境，在《社区生活圈规划技术指南》的基础上，结合步行速度和非直线系数等指标差异化界定社区生活圈尺度，利用POI数据和道路网络等地理空间数据测度建成环境。以保定市居民出行行为调查数据作为实证研究数据来源，构建考虑自变量尺度变异的多尺度地理加权回归模型(MGWR)。研究结果表明：对比最小二乘回归(OLS)模型与传统的地理加权回归(GWR)模型，纳入变量尺度异质性的MGWR模型降低了残差的自相关性，且调整后R2 相比于GWR模型与OLS模型分别提高了1.8倍与6.0倍；从标准化系数来看，社区建成环境指标中，土地利用混合度和公交服务水平对VMT影响最大；社区建成环境指标中，路网密度与交叉口密度接近全局尺度，空间异质性较弱，其余建成环境变量均具有较强的空间异质性，需要进行差异化的空间设计；社区建成环境指标局部回归系数的空间分布模式呈现“中心-外围”变化趋势，与城市形态有较强的耦合。     

考虑异质性的经典随机后悔最小化模型改进研究

传统基于后悔理论的交通行为模型对异质性考虑不充分，对真实选择行为的解释存在不足.本文利用韦伯比率，考虑出行者对各方式属性变量感知的异质性，对经典随机后悔最小化模型进行改进，分别建立基于随机效用最大化，经典随机后悔最小化和改进经典随机后悔最小化的选择模型；以网约车选择行为为例进行实证研究，验证改进模型效果.结果表明：3种模型参数标定结果具有一致性，改进模型的拟合优度(0.271)和命中率(75.8%)相较于另外两个模型均较优；改进模型能更好地描述多维属性决策过程中的半补偿原则和折中效应，可以提高模型对真实选择行为的解释能力.     

Joint analysis of the spatial impacts of built environment on car ownership and travel mode choice

Concerns over transportation energy consumption and emissions have prompted more studies into the impacts of built environment on driving-related behavior, especially on car ownership and travel mode choice. This study contributes to examine the impacts of the built environment on commuter’s driving behavior at both spatial zone and individual levels. The aim of this study is threefold. First, a multilevel integrated multinomial logit (MNL) and structural equation model (SEM) approach was employed to jointly explore the impacts of the built environment on car ownership and travel mode choice. Second, the spatial context in which individuals make the travel decisions was accommodated, and spatial heterogeneities of car ownership and travel mode choice across traffic analysis zones (TAZs) were recognized. Third, the indirect effects of the built environment on travel mode choice through the mediating variable car ownership were calculated, in other words, the intermediary nature of car ownership was considered. Using the Washington metropolitan area as the study case, the built environment measures were calculated for each TAZ, and the commuting trips were drawn from the household travel survey in this area. To estimate the model parameters, the robust maximum likelihood (MLR) method was used. Meanwhile, a comparison among different model structures was conducted. The model results suggest that application of the multilevel integrated MNL and SEM approach obtains significant improvements over other models. This study give transportation planners a better understanding on how the built environment influences car ownership and commuting mode choice, and consequently develop effective and targeted countermeasures.     

A hybrid-choice latent-class model for the analysis of the effects of weather on cycling demand

In this paper we analyze demand for cycling using a discrete choice model with latent variables and a discrete heterogeneity distribution for the taste parameters. More specifically, we use a hybrid choice model where latent variables not only enter into utility but also inform assignment to latent classes. Using a discrete choice experiment we analyze the effects of weather (temperature, rain, and snow), cycling time, slope, cycling facilities (bike lanes), and traffic on cycling decisions by members of Cornell University (in an area with cold and snowy winters and hilly topography). We show that cyclists can be separated into two segments based on a latent factor that summarizes cycling skills and experience. Specifically, cyclists with more skills and experience are less affected by adverse weather conditions. By deriving the median of the ratio of the marginal rate of substitution for the two classes, we show that rain deters cyclists with lower skills from bicycling 2.5 times more strongly than those with better cycling skills. The median effects also show that snow is almost 4 times more deterrent to the class of less experienced cyclists. We also model the effect of external restrictions (accidents, crime, mechanical problems) and physical condition as latent factors affecting cycling choices.     

在重新理解马克思哲学的途中——卢卡奇、德拉-沃尔佩、科莱蒂和阿尔都塞的理论贡献

在重新理解马克思哲学的途中,西方马克思主义者卢卡奇、德拉-沃尔佩、科莱蒂和阿尔都塞做出了重要的贡献。卢卡奇开辟了社会存在本体论的研究方向;德拉-沃尔佩和科莱蒂提出了"思维与存在的异质性"问题,阐述了"社会生产关系"理论;阿尔都塞开辟了重新阅读《资本论》的新思路。所有这些新观念都为我们重新理解马克思哲学的实质提供了重要的思想资源。     

Modeling heterogeneous parking choice behavior on university campuses

Studies on campus parking indicate more severe problems and a wider range of characteristics than commercial parking because of limited parking places, special conditions, specific policies and enclosed space on university campuses. Heterogeneous characteristics are usually ignored in analyses of campus parking behavior. In this paper, a mixed logit model is applied to analyze parking choice behavior on a campus using data collected from a stated-preference survey of Tongji University, Shanghai, China. The heterogeneity of individuals with various sociodemographic characteristics is evaluated by interaction terms and random parameters. Comparison between the proposed approach and the conditional logit model shows that the results of the mixed logit model are more interpretable because they are not limited by the independence from irrelevant alternatives assumption. Key factors that have considerable effects on campus parking choices are identified and analyzed. Important regularities are also concluded from elasticity analyses. Finally, the campus is divided into two areas according to the walking distance to a new parking lot, and the modeling results show that area-specific policies should be established because the two areas have quite distinct parking choice features.     

风速空间分布非均匀性对大跨桥梁空气静力和动力行为的影响研究

随着桥梁跨径的增大，桥梁区域内风速分布的非均匀性将逐渐加剧，将会对大跨径桥梁的空气静力和动力行为产生重要影响，采用风速空间分布的计算模型，考虑结构以及作用在结构上的空气力随结构变形的非线性变化影响，建立了考虑风速空间分布非均匀性的结构空气静力和动力非线性分析方法。运用该方法，对某悬索桥进行了参数分析和研究，揭示了风速空间分布非均匀性对大跨径桥梁空气静力和动力行为影响的机理和规律。     

多元性、异质性的社会工作研究方法

社会工作在学科归属上属于应用社会科学,在科学研究上它以社会和一定的社会现象为对象;在实践上它以理论与实际相结合,服务于有困难的社会成员为其鲜明特征。当价值因素引入社会工作,社会工作理论和实践之间的冲突变得非常明显。建立于实证主义逻辑基础之上的社会工作理论和研究在社会工作实践中面临不可回避的困境,其后发展的反实证主义,其研究的基本框架仍然是实证主义的,受批判诠释理论和后现代理论启示,多元的、异质性的研究方法趋于盛行。     

无线异构网络互连仿真研究

针对海军通信中存在的无线网络专网专用问题,提出了一种具有较强扩展性的无线异构网络互连互通解决方案,通过子网间路由协议的设计极好地解决了异构网络之间的跨子网通信问题,并通过仿真实验评价了跨子网通信能力以及网络通信性能,进一步验证方案的可行性。     

超大线网标准城轨云及共享数据平台研究

基于《中国城市轨道交通智慧城轨发展纲要》的“1811”布局以及《北京智慧轨道交通发展行动策划方案》,研究城轨云与大数据的标准化、自主化、多云异构的安全可信云计算平台;构建城轨业务数据的综合承载、共享、挖掘、治理、质量评估大数据平台体系,发挥城轨大数据要素的流转、互联、互通效能,推进城轨业务对大数据要素的深化应用与数据价值提升;推动智慧城轨发展,建设“三张网”的标准化、协同化网络纵深防御技术体系,采用其关键对称与非对称的密码应用技术,最大化地提升城轨云的安全能力;研究可复制的、高度可用的云平台运维常态与应急管理体系与机制,保障城轨云的业务持续性、数据安全性,以及云平台基础设施运管的集约化。